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120,000 iPads pre-ordered on first day?

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Feb 5, 2009
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http://brainstormtech.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2010/03/13/day-1-estimate-120000-ipads-sold/

120,000 iPads pre-ordered on first day?
Saturday, March 13, 2010 - 12:39 PM EST

"The team at Investor Village's AAPL Sanity board have completed their initial analysis of pre-orders for the iPad tablet computer," Philip Elmer-DeWitt reports for Fortune. "Apple began taking orders on Friday for delivery starting April 3."

Based on a sampling of 48 orders (for 54 iPads), and not counting units that were reserved but not ordered, the Sanity team estimates:

• Nearly 120,000 iPads sold
• Wi-Fi-only models (avail. Apr. 3) outpaced Wi-Fi + 3G (avila. "late April") orders 69% to 31%, respectively.
• Storage capacity breakdown: 16GB - 40%, 32GB - 28%, 64GB - 33%

Elmer-DeWitt reports, "Estimates of the number of iPads Apple will have manufactured by April range from a high of 1 million to a low of 300,000."
 
They aren't just taking a survey of these users, in which case the sample would be way to small. They are basing the numbers on the order number sequence from one order to the next. It's not an exact science but the guy says he has had success with this in the past.
 
Wow, that is a ton of ipads for only one day of sales. Also, it doesn't even include the reserved ipads for pick up at stores, which is how I ordered mine.

I think it shows the ipad is going to be huge!
 
absolutely amazing. 120,000 iPads in 1 Day.


in comparison Google only sold 20,000 Nexus One's in the first WEEK - 7 days!

250,000 Motorola Droid was sold in the first Week as well.

500,000 Tablet PCs were sold the ENTIRE YEAR in 2003.
 
DaveSW said:
absolutely amazing. 120,000 iPads in 1 Day.


in comparison Google only sold 20,000 Nexus One's in the first WEEK - 7 days!

250,000 Motorola Droid was sold in the first Week as well.

500,000 Tablet PCs were sold the ENTIRE YEAR in 2003.
Click to expand...

You just compared the presumed iPad pre-orders to two recent smartphone sales and seven year old Tablet PC sales data. Fantastic logical deduction using facts, sir.

In tech speak, comparing 2003 technology sales on tablets (before markets expanded with multi-touch and iPhones and Android and Palm Pre, etc, etc) data to today is like running VCR sales in the 2000s against iPad pre-orders. It's a bit of an unjust assessment.

I mean, in semi-seriousness, how many units of the Nintendo Wii have they pushed out to customers..?! Let's compare low-powered user appliances with different user interfaces, shall we?

I mean, best comparison is to compare Day 1 sales of various iPhones and iPod Touches. Apple wants to dominate the WORLD.. I guess 120,000 supposedly is a good start :p. Has it occurred to anyone that Apple might dick with their order numbers in order to have people presume that they're selling like hotcakes in order to generate demand... instead of bold faced lying (or telling the truth) themselves???
 
Assuming they are somewhat right;
Estimated average cost is $664, roughly. Simple math says Apple cleared a cool $79,680,000 in pre-orders alone.
Roughly.

This isn't accurate though, I didn't take into account the 2-1 ratio Wifi pulled over 3G, nor the percentage break-down of models sold.
Like I said, rough.
 
These are preorders, too. You can't even just walk into a store and buy one on a whim yet. When actual ipads hit the stores it's going to blow HUGE.
 
jedivulcan said:
I mean, best comparison is to compare Day 1 sales of various iPhones and iPod Touches. Apple wants to dominate the WORLD.. I guess 120,000 supposedly is a good start :p. Has it occurred to anyone that Apple might dick with their order numbers in order to have people presume that they're selling like hotcakes in order to generate demand... instead of bold faced lying (or telling the truth) themselves???
Click to expand...

Apple manipulate stories and figures? No way.
 
goobot said:
this is incorrect!!! mmm doesnt apple also sell accessories and other products that have order #S????!!!!
Click to expand...

Yes, and he specifically says that this is taken into account. Basically on a normal day he tracks what the sequence of order numbers looks like. Let's say he estimates an average of 15,000 orders on a normal day. This means that on Friday he actually estimated 135,000 orders were placed, and given that there is no reason why people would start ordering tons of random Apple products on Friday, he is assuming this extra volume is due to iPad sales. iPad accessories don't necessarily add to his totals either, since in most cases they are going to be part of the same order # as the iPad itself.

I'm not saying I think these numbers are totally accurate, but the guy seems to think they have been a good estimate in the past.
 
If the numbers are right, it's going to be huge for a product that 99.9% of people haven't touched or seen in real life.

I did reserve mine tho.
 
marksman said:
A sampling of a couple thousand houses tells all tv advertisers what 300 million people watch on tv allegedly, so you never know.
Click to expand...

QFT.

Then again, this is why there are a million "reality" shows and crime procedurals, and shows like Firefly get cancelled.
 
gwynne said:
QFT.

Then again, this is why there are a million "reality" shows and crime procedurals, and shows like Firefly get cancelled.
Click to expand...

No, the sampling methodology has little to do with that. They're pretty accurate, though they only measure people who actually watch TV live (although they've started to track DVR viewers now, but aren't doing much with online viewership of any sort at this point). Shows stay on/get canceled based on profitability. Reality shows draw a broad audience and cost little to produce. Shows like Firefly have a limited draw and are expensive (very involved set, location shoot, large acting cast, writers, etc). It's just a sad fact of the lowest-common-denominator model TV uses.

I'm hoping these strong sale figures gets developers crackin' on having osme new apps in the store on launch day! I want more than just pixel doubled iPhone apps... :p
 
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