I am getting seriously swayed by the M1 macs though. I think the eventual silicon 16" is the computer to have. If I was planning around moving to the 16" silicon then I think I should get the base 16". Sell it while it is still brand new and sealed. And buy a macbook air to hold me over until the 16" is announced.
Am I overvaluing the M1 Macs?
I personally don't think you're overvaluing the M1 Macs. If i personally were in your position and had to buy something, that's probably what i'd do too... I'd be
heavily leaning towards the M1 Macs (note that i'm a tad biased though because i've been itching to ditch these Intel Macs for a while now). Based on what you've described your needs to be here. There isn't really much reason that you have to stick with the 16" Intel MBP. You mentioned you don't need an eGPU, so the fact that the M1 Macs do not support eGPUs is a non issue for you. You said your main programs you use are FCPX and Lightroom.
The former runs natively on M1 Macs out of the box, and the latter is confirmed getting a native M1 version next month in December and will run through Rosetta 2 in the meantime. There's risk apps running through Rosetta 2 may not run perfectly to consider, but it hasn't seemed to be an issue thus far. Still something to consider though
If you've seen the benchmarks and real world testing reviewers have done with the M1 Macs doing things in native FCPX and even some apps through Rosetta 2 emulation, it's pretty impressive performance that could easily hold you over till M1 16" MBPs come out. I think the biggest thing you'd want to check on is look for videos of people testing M1 Macs using FCPX using the same cameras or the same file types you use. Various Youtube tech reviewers like Max Tech, Luke Miani, Greg's Gadgets, TLDToday, Rene Ritchie and many others are all doing or have done videos on this.
M1 Macs have been shown to handle H.265/HEVC like it's essentially nothing, while even higher end Intel laptops and even some desktop computers all struggle with it to the point that some editors avoid using H.265/HEVC entirely or have to convert it to something else more useable. The M1 Macs also can operate under load and generate very little heat and don't rely on kicking up the fans into high gear anywhere near as much as the Intel Macs do, which is extremely appealing to me.
I don't know about your needs outside of FCPX and Lightroom, but the main reasons i could see for sticking with the Intel MBP 16" would be if you need multi monitor support. This first batch of M1 Macs has more limited monitor support compared to the Intel Macs. The M1 Macbook Air and M1 Macbook Pro 13" can only do one external monitor. The M1 Mac Mini can do two (one through a USB C port and the other through the HDMI port).
Another big reason to go for the Intel Mac would be if you need to access Windows through Bootcamp. The M1 Macs do not have this ability currently (though access to Windows through Parallels is coming). Another reason to still go Intel Mac now would be if you're really particular about screen size. I know for some people the 13" is absolutely unusably small for their use case. RAM may be another concern, as these M1 Macs all top out at 16 GB of RAM. However, reviewers have also shown this to not really be an issue as the RAM usage is more efficient and RAM swap is so fast it's nearly imperceptible (but probably still get the 16GB if you do go M1). Lastly, if you still use any 32 Bit applications, then you need to stay Intel and on OSX Mojave. As Catalina drops support for anything 32 Bit.
If you're using this professionally for work. It is a risk to use a gen 1 product for time sensitive work, but based on what i've seen so far of these Apple Silicon Macs, they seem perfectly useable. They seem far more stable than any gen 1 product should be. No one's reported any major issues with these systems that you'd expect with gen 1 products. I myself would feel confident making the switch. The risk would feel pretty minimal for me. Only reason i haven't yet is because i can wait out the 16" Apple Silicon model and am not in a position where i have to buy something right now.
So yeah, if the 16" replacement is being offered to you and you only have to pay the upgrade difference and you, and not your company, would own it thus giving you the right to sell it if you chose. Grab the 16" base like you said. Keep it sealed, buy a M1 Macbook Air or Pro that would easily hold you over. Then sell both and put it towards an Apple Silicon 16" MBP when those come out. That or just politely decline the 16" Intel MBP, buy the M1 Macbook Air or Pro and get your company to reimburse you for that instead. It would actually save them money since it costs less than the Intel 16" MBP.
