2 observations...

[nippyjun]

I'm a long time apple fan and have already ordered my ipad.

I wonder if anyone else has similarly noticed that:

1. I would have expected a lot more people "viewing" this ipad discussion forum here on macrumors than there have been. Usually around 100-150 viewers.

2. Apple still shows april 3rd delivery for wifi units ordered today. Which to me means that they are able to build a lot of them or there is less demand then they thought.

What are your thoughts on these?

Thanks.

 

[gwynne]

I guess I'll bite.

There are a number of reasons I wouldn't base interest on forum page views (one being that there hasn't been a lot of real new news since the presale started), but they're all open to debate so I'll just say: No, I don't think thread view numbers on Macrumors.com are a good barometer of consumer interest.

Regarding sales volume, there have been a couple of different analysts/leaks/etc, and the overall feeling seems to be that the device is on track to match or exceed initial iPhone sales. (Again, this is debatable, but the weight of predictions lean that way.)

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35950679/ns/technology_and_science-tech_and_gadgets/

 

[BmoreDrumGuy]

It seems like that there is a lot of contempt for the iPad for one reason or another: no camera, no flash, blah, blah, blah. I think once there are finally in our hands, things will really start to pick up with talks around here. So many are convinced the the iPad is a big handful of fail.

As far as orders still being taken, I'm surprised as well that they are still able to accept orders. More than likely, Apple has had this thing in production for a while now, and have a pretty good surplus of units waiting to go.

 

[anthonymoody]

SOme perspective. Check the numbers for iPods, notebooks, and desktops. Not bad in comparison.

Also, check back on April 3 onward . . .

 

[diabolic]

2. Apple still shows april 3rd delivery for wifi units ordered today. Which to me means that they are able to build a lot of them or there is less demand then they thought.

People who supposedly have the info are saying they've already sold "hundreds of thousands" of them. I'd guess the answer to your question is that they are able to build a lot.

I'd expect the demand to bounce up even more once people can actually go see one in person.

 

[nippyjun]

I guess I'll bite.

There are a number of reasons I wouldn't base interest on forum page views (one being that there hasn't been a lot of real new news since the presale started), but they're all open to debate so I'll just say: No, I don't think thread view numbers on Macrumors.com are a good barometer of consumer interest.

Regarding sales volume, there have been a couple of different analysts/leaks/etc, and the overall feeling seems to be that the device is on track to match or exceed initial iPhone sales. (Again, this is debatable, but the weight of predictions lean that way.)

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35950679/ns/technology_and_science-tech_and_gadgets/

I agree that there really hasn't been much news. I just thought that there would be more "i ordered mine" threads or posts of that nature to gain more viewers.

 

[dagomike]

I can only handle so many why I am/am not buying, what should I buy, etc iPad threads. There's not much to discuss until it ships.

Apple has been pretty good about predicting demand. Unless there's something wrong in production, I'd expect they'll have plenty for the launch. So, no shortages could just mean everything is going according to plan.

 

[vini-vidi-vici]

There really hasn't been much to say... this forum is just a whole lot of speculation (and a lot of repetition). There aren't a lot of people who will spend time reading that. When the iPad comes out, and people have them in their hands, and are trying to do this/that, and discovering things, asking questions, etc... I expect discussion volume to climb quite a bit.

 

[eawmp1]

I agree that there really hasn't been much news. I just thought that there would be more "i ordered mine" threads or posts of that nature to gain more viewers.

What planet have you been on? The first week of orders were unbearable with those threads. Thankfully it has died down. The early adopters have ordered. Everyone else is waiting to see. Expect the frenzy to pick up a few days before April 3

 

[nippyjun]

It seems like that there is a lot of contempt for the iPad for one reason or another: no camera, no flash, blah, blah, blah. I think once there are finally in our hands, things will really start to pick up with talks around here. So many are convinced the the iPad is a big handful of fail.

As far as orders still being taken, I'm surprised as well that they are still able to accept orders. More than likely, Apple has had this thing in production for a while now, and have a pretty good surplus of units waiting to go.

I was almost hoping for a shortage early on to make demand even greater.



With my iphone 3gs i ordered it for delivery on the release date. Does anyone know how close to the 3gs release date you could order it and get it on the release date?

 

[saving107]

its the Calm before the Storm.

just wait for the flood or threads on April 3rd (i Got Mine, FedEx Hasn't Come yet, orders just got shipped from China...OMG, What...No Front Facing Camera)

 

[Bodhi395]

its the Calm before the Storm.

just wait for the flood or threads on April 3rd (i Got Mine, FedEx Hasn't Come yet, orders just got shipped from Chine...OMG, What...No Front Facing Camera)

And then a few days after that we will most certainly get the: the battery is dying really quickly, it gets too hot, the back is discolored, etc... posts

 

[diabolic]

With my iphone 3gs i ordered it for delivery on the release date. Does anyone know how close to the 3gs release date you could order it and get it on the release date?

They only started 3GS pre-orders about 11 days before the launch, and I think you got delivery on launch day if you ordered from Apple at least 3-4 days before June 19th.

And then a few days after that we will most certainly get the: the battery is dying really quickly, it gets too hot, the back is discolored, etc... posts

I bet it takes less than a day for a yellow screen thread to start. And there will be at least one "Does anyone else have dust under their screen?"

 

[saving107]

And then a few days after that we will most certainly get the: the battery is dying really quickly, it gets too hot, the back is discolored, etc... posts

"The Bezel is not flush with the screen"
"I think I have a Yellow Screen"
"What Week Model do you have?"
"is this a SIM Tray Ejector or a Mic on the WiFi Model"
"Version 2 Wish-list"
"I'm not buying an iPad until it has at least XX of GB"

 

[Chupa Chupa]

I don't really get your presumed causal relationship between orders and people lurking MRs.

As for production, based on iPod sales, Apple's manufacturer makes about 66,000 a day, based on a 24 hour w/ 2 shifts or 33,000 on a 12 hour w/ 1 shift production. Most manufacturers go 24hrs to achieve economy of scale.

Since the iPad is ramping up, lets half that number, so 33K per day. Lets assume Apple started production on March 6, though it probably started before then, and assume it needs a week to get product to store or buyer, so lets assume a fictional production cessation on March 25, Beijing time. That's 20 productions days x 33K units = 660,000 iPads.

So while iPad pre-sales and reservations are quite impressive, it's way below the number of units Apple can realistically produce in time for the launch.

 

[Ashka]

Forget about the US market figures, the rest of the World is waiting for their iPad's to be delivered.

Many of us haven't even got approximate dates yet never mind pre orders and reservations.

Hopefully it will be before the end of the year.

 

[Trek2100]

"The Bezel is not flush with the screen"
"I think I have a Yellow Screen"
"What Week Model do you have?"
"is this a SIM Tray Ejector or a Mic on the WiFi Model"
"Version 2 Wish-list"
"I'm not buying an iPad until it has at least XX of GB"

Oh no, not again. I'm still having nightmares from the 27" iMac i7 threads. It makes me weep. Yeah, I didn't have to read them but I felt compelled. After a while I almost thought I had the dreaded yellow screen, NOT. If you stare at something long enough you can convince yourself of almost anything. Almost felt like I should wait until Apple has something on the market for several years before I buy, but of course it would be an antique by then.

 

[CanonicalKoi]

Expect the frenzy to pick up a few days before April 3

Not to mention on April 3rd itself.