2022 M2 MacBook Price Predictions

[KPOM]

With all the rumors of a 2022 13” MacBook/MacBook Air, where do you see pricing and positioning? I predict Apple will brand this as a “MacBook” and successor to both the existing M1 MacBook Air and 13” MacBook Pro, priced at $1199. They will keep the M1 MacBook Air as the $999 option, just as they did with the 2015 MacBook Air when they released the 12” MacBook. Here’s why. The rumors suggest a base price increase, which we just saw with the 14” and 16” MacBook Pro. However, except for one year, since 2010 Apple has always had at least 1 notebook available for $999, as it is an important psychological price point. They tried to increase the base to $1299 with the 12” MacBook and 2016 base 13” MacBook Pro, but the $999 Air kept on selling better, prompting the release of the 2018 Retina MacBook Air, initially for $1099 but reduced the next year to $999.

$1199 with a 10-15% faster CPU, 25% faster GPU, MicroLED screen, and MagSafe seems like a meaningful upgrade, particularly if they take the opposite direction from the MacBook Pro and use the efficiency of the chips to keep the weight as is or even reduce it slightly. But the existing M1 Air is still good enough to keep around as the sub-$1000 option.

 

[KPOM]

Hmm. A plurality agrees with me so far. Perhaps the next poll should be whether you would buy one at that price.

 

[ls1dreams]

Hard to know. If they move up to more expensive screens (mini-LED/120mhz) I think the price definitely increases. They have a lot more margin now using their own silicon so it's possible they could keep them the same price though.

 

[JPack]

The current MBA already sells for $899. You just have to pinky swear you're a student, parent, "home school teacher" or even a PTA member. What does this mean? The lack of enforcement means Apple is happy with the margins even at $899. You're almost a sucker to buy MBA for $999.

This is why Kuo predicts the 2022 MBA will sell for $999. He's aware of component costs and margins.

$999 or $1,099 - probably
$1,199 or $1,299 - certainly not

 

[senttoschool]

I predict $1,099. $100 MSRP increase. Why? Because the Mini LED MBPs got a similar increase.

This will then set the stage for a Macbook SE. It will be exactly like the current Air but with M2/M3 SoC.

$750-$800 Macbook SE - 8GB/256GB, M2 SoC with disabled CPU/GPU cores, current Macbook Air hardware

$1,099 Macbook Air - 8GB/256GB, full M2 SoC, Mini-LED 60Hz, 14.2" with notch, redesigned chassis, better speakers & mic, 1080p camera

You're probably thinking, wow a $750 Macbook SE? You're dreaming. I'm not. Amazon just had the M1 Macbook Air for $850 on sale. This suggests that the margin for the Air is still very high and could drop further. Component prices will also drop as it uses older hardware and display.

But why would Apple sell such a cheap laptop? Apple is all about premium! Nah. Pay attention. iPhone SE. Watch SE. $330 iPad. Apple's strategy is now to increase market share and sell services and subscriptions.

Does the Macbook SE really matter to Apple? Yes. There are more iPhone + Windows users than iPhone + Mac. This is because the Mac has traditionally had a far higher entry level price. Macbook couldn't make a good laptop for cheap. They can now with Apple Silicon. It's going to be the most important Mac ever.