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senttoschool

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Nov 2, 2017
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  • Macs will take 50% of the laptop/desktop market within 6 years
  • Soon, if you want the fastest computer you have to buy a Mac
  • If you want a laptop that has the best battery life, you have to buy a Mac
  • Apple will release a Macbook SE priced at $700-$750. They couldn't before because cheap Intel chips were too slow.
  • Many iPhone users (50% market share in U.S.), iPad users (65%), and Apple Watch (55%) users bought cheap Costco laptops. Apple can win these customers back with an affordable Macbook.
  • AAA gaming will come to Macs. Even the slowest Apple Silicon GPU is as fast as a 1050Ti. Soon, the median GPU in a Mac will be faster than the median gaming PC. Combined with a projected 50% market share, AAA game developers can't ignore Macs. Apple will take a cut of every AAA game sale because they will have to go through the App Store just like how they have to go through Steam on Windows.
  • By increasing their laptop/desktop share, Apple will sell more Apple One+ subscriptions because they're adding one more major device to the customer's ecosystem.
Apple is no longer a brand just for the wealthy. Apple is destroying the low mid-end market with SE products that are simply better than the competition. A $400 iPhone SE is faster than any Android phone. It's quite likely that a $700 Macbook SE will be faster than any Windows laptop. Apple is gunning for marketshare. And then they want to sell subscriptions to their customers.

Bonus bold predictions: Apple will enter the cloud hardware business and enterprise markets within 10 years. Bloomberg reports that Apple is making a 36 core SoC. Soon, Apple will realize that they can make a better server chip than AMD/Intel. Apple knows that most computing will be done in the cloud in the future. And because Macs will become a dominant laptop/desktop player, Apple will make a huge push into selling more Macs to enterprises and start competing directly with Microsoft there.

Disclosure: I own Apple shares and have bought more since M1 Macs came out.
 

CWallace

macrumors G5
Aug 17, 2007
12,526
11,542
Seattle, WA
Macs will take 50% of the laptop/desktop market within 6 years.

Not a chance. Enterprise customers buy way too much WinTel to allow this to happen. That being said, I do believe Apple will continue to grow their Macs sales due to ASi.


Soon, if you want the fastest computer you have to buy a Mac

In terms of consumer and enterprise laptops and desktops, this might happen. Not at the enterprise workstation level and, of course, not at the enterprise server level.


If you want a laptop that has the best battery life, you have to buy a Mac

This seems quite probable (at least in terms of integrated batteries).


Apple will release a Macbook SE priced at $700-$750. They couldn't before because cheap Intel chips were too slow.

I don't see Apple going that low, but I do think we will see the current base M1 MacBook Air stay in the lineup and get cheaper over time. By 2022, I could see it being $899 / $799 (Education) - $200 cheaper than today.
 
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jerryk

macrumors 604
Nov 3, 2011
7,421
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SF Bay Area
Mxxx devices will be fast, but do people need all that performance? More and more companies are moving to the cloud. Even developers are moving to cloud-based environments because of low cost, minimal maintenance. and higher performance especially in fields like Machine Learning.

Apple may do well, but the laptop/desktop market is shrinking. More people get by with tablets, big phones, and web-connected devices. Smart devices eliminate the need for general-purpose computers for many.
 

pmiles

macrumors 6502a
Dec 12, 2013
812
678
Sorry, but Apple will always sell the most expensive computers on the planet. As such, cheap PC will still have the largest market share.

Windows is so deeply ingrained in enterprise usage that Apple will never get a foothold in the enterprise market.

Asking game developers to switch to the Mac platform is akin to asking Americans to switch to the metric system. Not gonna happen in your lifetime.

Disclaimer: Not an Apple shareholder... but even Tim Cook would agree with me on this.
 

KShopper

macrumors member
Nov 26, 2020
84
116
Asking game developers to switch to the Mac platform is akin to asking Americans to switch to the metric system. Not gonna happen in your lifetime.
iOS games market is already a larger market than the pc several times over. Maybe you didn't notice, but the war is over, and PC games lost. :)

Ez transition for developers to target M1+ macs now, going to happen quickly.
 

bill-p

macrumors 68030
Jul 23, 2011
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Macs will take 50% of the laptop/desktop market within 6 years
As said, no chance for this. Big companies and corporations are far too entrenched in Windows to get out. Mac OS currently has about 10% marketshare. I'd say... in 10 years, perhaps Apple will be able to grow that to 15%, but not much more.

Soon, if you want the fastest computer you have to buy a Mac
For laptops, maybe. For desktops, it remains to be seen.

If you want a laptop that has the best battery life, you have to buy a Mac
In 5 years, this may not be true anymore.

Apple will release a Macbook SE priced at $700-$750. They couldn't before because cheap Intel chips were too slow.
They may just end up selling the previous generation device at a discount, so yeah, at least this seems probable.

Many iPhone users (50% market share in U.S.), iPad users (65%), and Apple Watch (55%) users bought cheap Costco laptops. Apple can win these customers back with an affordable Macbook.
Maybe, but not a big chance here. See point #1.

AAA gaming will come to Macs. Even the slowest Apple Silicon GPU is as fast as a 1050Ti. Soon, the median GPU in a Mac will be faster than the median gaming PC. Combined with a projected 50% market share, AAA game developers can't ignore Macs. Apple will take a cut of every AAA game sale because they will have to go through the App Store just like how they have to go through Steam on Windows.
There's actually not that big of a chance for this. The hardware is capable, but Apple isn't making gaming any more accessible, nor are they making a big push for it.

People have said that there was no point to Switch because iPad existed. 3 years later? Switch wins by a landslide. In terms of hardware, the iPad was way ahead of the Switch even on its launch, and yet there are not that many games on the iPad that can even be considered AA, let alone AAA.

And the advent of services like Stadia and xCloud may ultimately make the idea of a tied-down gaming system moot since you only have to subscribe to a "low" monthly fee ($10 for Stadia, so about $120 a year, or $720 in 6 years, that's about the average amount of time anyone will actively use any dedicated gaming console), and you can play AAA games on any device you own. Most people don't have access to the level of internet required to get these services to work properly, but give it 10 years and we may see the death of dedicated gaming devices, even. So that makes Apple even less inclined to do something about gaming per se.

By increasing their laptop/desktop share, Apple will sell more Apple One+ subscriptions because they're adding one more major device to the customer's ecosystem.
Apple One+ is a great service for Apple device owners, but it's not so accessible to owners of other types of devices. That's why it has not picked up. In contrast, people are okay with paying for Amazon Prime, Netflix, etc... because they can make full use of those services on a wide variety of devices... including their game consoles and their TVs.

Apple is no longer a brand just for the wealthy.
Eh... they have a Pro Display XDR for $4999, the stand for the display is $999, and they sell wheels... (freaking... wheels!) for $699.

I honestly don't see how you can describe Apple as being "no longer a brand for the wealthy".

Just because Apple has some low-hanging fruits like iPhone SE and iPad to cater to the lower-end of the market doesn't mean that that's the core of their business. Beyond that point, the iPhone SE may be faster than any Android phone in existence, but Android still commands an overwhelming 85% share of the smartphone market. So again, speed and hardware aren't the key factors here.

All Apple just did was finally get the Mac line to be the machines they should have always been, not more, not less. But I expect we'll see less of a jump in improvements with the next few generations. It'll be the usual "up to 1.5X", "2X" faster claims again.
 
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Falhófnir

macrumors 603
Aug 19, 2017
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7,001
Macs will take 50% of the laptop/desktop market within 6 years
Can't see it, honestly. Some degree of increased marketshare (particularly in the US/CANZUK/Scandinavia/Japan where the Mac is already strongest) is possible, even likely, but globally I don't think the needle will shift much.
Soon, if you want the fastest computer you have to buy a Mac
In the MBA/ 13" Pro market segment, that's already true. I don't think there's any more powerful thin and light out there at the moment? Very plausible the 2021 14/16 inch MacBook Pros will be among if not the most powerful laptops.
If you want a laptop that has the best battery life, you have to buy a Mac
Already true with the M1 machines (and was true with Macs for a long time previously). Some Windows computers claim ~20h battery life but that's optimistic, testing cloud cuckoo.
Apple will release a Macbook SE priced at $700-$750. They couldn't before because cheap Intel chips were too slow.
I could see an $899 MacBook Air 12", they sold the old Air 11" at that price. I'm not sure anything $200 cheaper is plausible even with Apple Silicon. The Mac Mini is $699, but with a MacBook the BoM also includes a battery, display assembly and hinges, trackpad, keyboard, that all pushes up the price.
AAA gaming will come to Macs. Even the slowest Apple Silicon GPU is as fast as a 1050Ti. Soon, the median GPU in a Mac will be faster than the median gaming PC. Combined with a projected 50% market share, AAA game developers can't ignore Macs. Apple will take a cut of every AAA game sale because they will have to go through the App Store just like how they have to go through Steam on Windows.
Plausible, even without a huge marketshare increase. Apple Arcade leveraging the Apple silicon market across all Macs and iPads might just be a tempting market for game studios. Apple will have to work hard on promoting the ecosystem though. The 30% cut for Apple might be a barrier.
 

acidfast7_redux

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Nov 10, 2020
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  • Macs will take 50% of the laptop/desktop market within 6 years
  • Soon, if you want the fastest computer you have to buy a Mac
  • If you want a laptop that has the best battery life, you have to buy a Mac
  • Apple will release a Macbook SE priced at $700-$750. They couldn't before because cheap Intel chips were too slow.
  • Many iPhone users (50% market share in U.S.), iPad users (65%), and Apple Watch (55%) users bought cheap Costco laptops. Apple can win these customers back with an affordable Macbook.
  • AAA gaming will come to Macs. Even the slowest Apple Silicon GPU is as fast as a 1050Ti. Soon, the median GPU in a Mac will be faster than the median gaming PC. Combined with a projected 50% market share, AAA game developers can't ignore Macs. Apple will take a cut of every AAA game sale because they will have to go through the App Store just like how they have to go through Steam on Windows.
  • By increasing their laptop/desktop share, Apple will sell more Apple One+ subscriptions because they're adding one more major device to the customer's ecosystem.
Apple is no longer a brand just for the wealthy. Apple is destroying the low mid-end market with SE products that are simply better than the competition. A $400 iPhone SE is faster than any Android phone. It's quite likely that a $700 Macbook SE will be faster than any Windows laptop. Apple is gunning for marketshare. And then they want to sell subscriptions to their customers.

Bonus bold predictions: Apple will enter the cloud hardware business and enterprise markets within 10 years. Bloomberg reports that Apple is making a 36 core SoC. Soon, Apple will realize that they can make a better server chip than AMD/Intel. Apple knows that most computing will be done in the cloud in the future. And because Macs will become a dominant laptop/desktop player, Apple will make a huge push into selling more Macs to enterprises and start competing directly with Microsoft there.

Disclosure: I own Apple shares and have bought more since M1 Macs came out.
Interesting predictions. Seems like the US market is tapped and irrelevant from a business perspective.

I have lived all around the planet and run a multinational research group.

The Middle East, the "Indian" subcontinent and Asia seems like where Apple needs to make inroads.

They've done extremely well with the iPhone/iPad.

They'll never crack east of "Middle East" as the lower end of those markets run on pirated Windows and most excellent students with a computer in their household have a Windows machine.

I usually take the best students out of certain countries in the my research group in the UK and they hate "Mac" but love iPhone.

Until Apple cracks that market, what happens in the US market is irrelevant for Mac.

Personally, I don't care, I love Apple as the hardware is stellar and great to use. I don't have time to waste.
 

JMacHack

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Mar 16, 2017
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You're right, these are some bold predictions
  • Macs will take 50% of the laptop/desktop market within 6 years
No way, Mac marketshare hasn't a damned thing to do with performance or battery life. Improving those things, even as dramatically as we've seen will change Apple's marketshare fundamentally.

  • Soon, if you want the fastest computer you have to buy a Mac
  • If you want a laptop that has the best battery life, you have to buy a Mac
See above.

  • Apple will release a Macbook SE priced at $700-$750. They couldn't before because cheap Intel chips were too slow.
If they wanted to do that, they could've with the m1. Apple doesn't chase the low end.

  • Many iPhone users (50% market share in U.S.), iPad users (65%), and Apple Watch (55%) users bought cheap Costco laptops. Apple can win these customers back with an affordable Macbook.
Cheap costco is still far cheaper than $700-$750. And those machines only sell on price, everything else is secondary.

  • AAA gaming will come to Macs. Even the slowest Apple Silicon GPU is as fast as a 1050Ti. Soon, the median GPU in a Mac will be faster than the median gaming PC. Combined with a projected 50% market share, AAA game developers can't ignore Macs. Apple will take a cut of every AAA game sale because they will have to go through the App Store just like how they have to go through Steam on Windows.
AAA gaming has very little to do with performance and more to do with how much money they can milk from people with gambling mechanics. You can run a modern AAA game on a toaster PC, it'll look terrible, but it can be done. The reason gaming on Mac is bad isn't because of the Mac itself, it's because of the fact that it'll always be the hand-me-down brother of the PC, which is already the hand-me-down brother of consoles.

Also, not every App installed will have to go through the App Store (that would kill the Mac as a platform). That includes games.

  • By increasing their laptop/desktop share, Apple will sell more Apple One+ subscriptions because they're adding one more major device to the customer's ecosystem.
That, and all the other points assume Apple's marketshare will increase. While it may, I seriously have my doubts because there are other factors than raw performance that determine whether or not people buy a Mac vs. a PC.

Apple is no longer a brand just for the wealthy. Apple is destroying the low mid-end market with SE products that are simply better than the competition. A $400 iPhone SE is faster than any Android phone. It's quite likely that a $700 Macbook SE will be faster than any Windows laptop. Apple is gunning for marketshare. And then they want to sell subscriptions to their customers.
Ask any Android user how much performance matters to them. I'm gonna guess the answer is very small, the iPhone SE, while a fantastic phone, does have competition, maybe not in performance, but other features as well.

Bonus bold predictions: Apple will enter the cloud hardware business and enterprise markets within 10 years. Bloomberg reports that Apple is making a 36 core SoC. Soon, Apple will realize that they can make a better server chip than AMD/Intel. Apple knows that most computing will be done in the cloud in the future. And because Macs will become a dominant laptop/desktop player, Apple will make a huge push into selling more Macs to enterprises and start competing directly with Microsoft there.
Highly, highly doubtful. Sorry to burst your bubble, but Apple is primarily a customer-oriented company. Not customers as in enterprise customers, but consumers as individuals. That's just their business, and it works very well for them.

Disclosure: I own Apple shares and have bought more since M1 Macs came out.
That's fine, but your predictions are seriously off. Apple stock is looking rosy for sure.
 

dmccloud

macrumors 68040
Sep 7, 2009
3,142
1,899
Anchorage, AK
As long as the gaming industry focuses on the x86 platform for gaming, there is no way Apple can take 50% of the laptop/desktop market. Likewise, there are a lot of companies still running legacy software that only runs on the x86 platform, and there is no viable path to switch to the Mac for those customers. Granted, Blizzard did release an M1 version of WoW on launch day, but they have not yet ported other titles such as Diablo III.
 

quarkysg

macrumors 65816
Oct 12, 2019
1,247
841
If they wanted to do that, they could've with the m1. Apple doesn't chase the low end.
Well, Apple's main target is margin. If they can achieve their target margin with the M1, they will go into the budget market. Getting an additional 5-10 billions (plucking numbers from the air here) in sales with 30% margin is a very attractive proposition, even for Apple. It'll also increase customer's awareness of Apple's other offerings which will further increase their services offering.

Short term tho., Apple will probably focus on the premium market.
 

rezwits

macrumors 6502a
Jul 10, 2007
837
436
Las Vegas
I am not the first to state this but for some reason people seem to believe Windows as a service, i.e. via cloud virtual desktops is coming. That said I forsee a good future for Apple:

PCs with Intel will be like google stadia devices but for Windows VD, but here is a bonus, so will M# Macs, because they will be able to open a simple window like the VD intels, and have Windows running. So what's going to happen? What's the difference?

You'll see:

M# Macs (able to run Windows virtual too) but will cost $600-800-1000, and
PCs will simply cost $300-400-500, such a deal, but you'll have to pay $10-20 a month for Windows and such (sad face).

Then as the years go on, some will wise up and go, hey I am paying $10*12=120 for Windows per year, hmm...

Story continues:

M# Macs btw will reach a pinnacle of 30% market share no more.
but PCs versus M# Macs will be:
$500-700-900, versus $300-400-500
then another round
$400-600-800, versus $200-300-400

This will continue and people will ask what's the diffence between Mac and PC? Most won't tho, that's why the limit of 30% market share, but the difference will be you can have an actual computer on your lap and if your internet is slow, which will happen you're still good, but:

You get a Mac that can, for instance help you edit your youTube demo/instructional videos you make in 4K etc, and use Windows VD, while the Windows guy can't really be a content creator. They will almost strictly be consumers. (sad face, again)

Then in the end, Apple will be at the lowest level they can be:

M# = $400-500-600 (and of there will be $1500-2000 M# macs)
PC = $200-300-400
and that will be strictly the lowest at $200s for the quality, macOS, and the ability to be a creator or developer, and not dependent and not to mention no subscription...

The main reason I say this, is back when IBM Motorola and Apple worked on PPC, they tried, they really did, but there was NO FREAKIN OPTION!! They said DAMN, ok our backup plan, "Yellow Box," and then 10.4.3 on Intel was released along with the Mac Pro 2006.

I don't see how all these other guys think, "oh 'such-n-such company' will just whip out a chip, you'll see."

This was Apple in 2006 (and earlier) working on ARM for iPhone and with A4 released that in the wild. Then every year WORK, WORK, and MORE WORK, and the dividends and R&D pays off HOMIES.

Just cause NVIDIA (for example) buys ARM Holdings doesn't mean they get 15 years of CHIP R&D, and "bug reports galore" which Apple has handled for those 15 years. Please "such-n-such company will just whip out a chip" bah

Would have been nice if in 2006 Apple could have just whipped out a chip huh? (3 major companies)
Now don't get me wrong chip fabb-ing etc has change tremendously, but who is in the straight 100% lead of that revolution?

APPLE PERIOD
 

Takuro

macrumors 6502a
Jun 15, 2009
584
274
My own bet for marketshare is 15-20% after 5 years. Really depends on if Windows on ARM has success with OEMs or not. Apple is usually the one to give the industry a push -- not the first to do something, but the first to do it right.

Now, my projection doesn't sound huge at first, but that'd actually be a 50-100% increase from the current share. I really think that the Apple Silicon Mac Mini and MacBook Air are *that good* that they're going to lead to some people to convert (see this article on a major shift in the Japanese market that already happened).

However, that is also my absolute upper limit, in pure optimism, of what is possible. The reality of the consumer PC market is this: If people can choose between a $300 Windows laptop with a Core i3 or a $1000 Apple laptop with an M1 that's 5x faster, 9 times out of 10, people will choose the cheaper option. Even if the Apple laptop has more longevity in terms of usefulness and was actually more cost effective in the long term, most people don't plan ahead.

Phones are status symbols, but PC's aren't even a blip on the radar for most. People *really* like cheap PC's.
 
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senttoschool

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Nov 2, 2017
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Not a chance. Enterprise customers buy way too much WinTel to allow this to happen. That being said, I do believe Apple will continue to grow their Macs sales due to ASi.
Enterprises couldn't justify $1500 Macbooks for their $25,000/year employees. But what happens when there is a $700 Macbook SE that is faster than the fastest PC laptops out there and has 20hr battery life?

IBM has already proven that Macs in the enterprise actually cost less to maintain than PCs because Macs are easier to use and increase productivity.

In addition, enterprise software has largely moved to the cloud (browsers). It's much easier for enterprises to switch now than 30, 20, 10 years ago. Only the niche x86 software hasn't.

In terms of consumer and enterprise laptops and desktops, this might happen. Not at the enterprise workstation level and, of course, not at the enterprise server level.
If Bloomberg's report of Apple testing 36 core CPUs and 128c core GPUs is true, then it's only a matter of time until Apple workstations are the fastest in the world. There's also a decent chance that Apple will acquire Nuvia, who is mostly comprised of ex-Apple Silicon engineers and is aiming to build massive ARM server chips.

Sorry, but Apple will always sell the most expensive computers on the planet. As such, cheap PC will still have the largest market share.
Intel chips prevented Apple from making a good affordable laptop. If Apple made a $700 Macbook with Intel chips, they'd have to use slow the slowest i3s, or Celerons or Atom chips. Those are unbearably slow. But in 2 years, a $700 Macbook SE might be faster than any Windows laptop, just like how a $400 iPhone SE is faster than any Android phone.

There's actually not that big of a chance for this. The hardware is capable, but Apple isn't making gaming any more accessible, nor are they making a big push for it.
Apple is the biggest gaming company in the world and it's bigger than Playstation and Xbox combined. They're no strangers to gaming.

No way, Mac marketshare hasn't a damned thing to do with performance or battery life. Improving those things, even as dramatically as we've seen will change Apple's marketshare fundamentally.
Mac market share is influenced by price, performance, and battery life. They all matter. 50% of phone users in the U.S. use iPhones yet only 10% of PCs sold are Apple computers. That means the vast majority of iPhone users bought Windows PCs, mostly because of cheap Costco laptops. And no, these people aren't buying Windows because they need to run niche Windows x86 software.

If they wanted to do that, they could've with the m1. Apple doesn't chase the low end.
Makes no sense for Apple to introduce a Macbook SE as the first M1 product. SE products usually come after a few generations so Apple can use older designs and older components to save on cost.

And you're right, Apple doesn't chase the low-end. They chase the low-mid-end. iPhone SE for $400. Apple Watch SE for $230 (black Friday sale). iPad for $330. No reason to doubt a $700 Macbook SE is coming.


Highly, highly doubtful. Sorry to burst your bubble, but Apple is primarily a customer-oriented company. Not customers as in enterprise customers, but consumers as individuals. That's just their business, and it works very well for them.
Computing is moving more and more to the cloud. It's inevitable that Apple will also start moving a lot of the computing done locally on iDevices to the cloud. This is a trend Apple can't and won't ignore.

Again, the M1 has changed my views on Apple completely. Apple's strategy is very clear. They own the high-end and dominate the low-mid-end with SE products to acquire 50%+ market share. Then they sell those customers subscriptions and services. They've done it for phones, tablets, smartwatches, and wireless headsets. There is no reason to doubt that they can't do it for laptop/desktop markets.
 
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bill-p

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Apple is the biggest gaming company in the world and it's bigger than Playstation and Xbox combined. They're no strangers to gaming.

I don't know about that... Even by revenue, Apple is not top dog, and is at most just neck-to-neck with Sony and Microsoft despite App Store revenue giving Apple a healthy 30% cut from all gaming apps:
 

senttoschool

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I don't know about that... Even by revenue, Apple is not top dog, and is at most just neck-to-neck with Sony and Microsoft despite App Store revenue giving Apple a healthy 30% cut from all gaming apps:
I'm not sure.


According to this, Apple's H1 2020 gaming revenue was $22b. That's bigger than Playstation and Xbox combined.

And it makes a lot of sense because mobile gaming is bigger than PC and console gaming combined, and Apple takes the lion's share of mobile revenue:

1607501874656.png


Regardless, Apple is no stranger to gaming. It made no sense for AAA games to come to Apple devices before. But with a median GPU that is faster than the median PC gaming GPU, and increased market share, I expect all AAA games to come to the Mac in the future.

And one more thing, the vast majority of PCs sold can't play AAA games because they don't come with discrete GPUs. Every Mac sold in the future will come with a GPU fast enough to play AAA games. There may be more AAA gaming capable Macs than PCs in the future, depending on how much market share Apple takes. It'd be suicide for developers to ignore Macs for AAA gaming.
 
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ChrisA

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  • Soon, if you want the fastest computer you have to buy a Mac
No. Already in 2020, there are server-class ARM-based chips that blow the M1 chip away and are like 20 or 50 times faster. Apple will never build a really fast computer. Apple is selling to consumers, not data centers.

Look at one example of what is on the market today
https://www.gigabyte.com/ARM-Server?fid=2326

The above runs Linux but there is no reason Windows or Mac OS could not be built for it. People who do need fset computers will buy these specialed machines

I think the Windows/PC market will follow what Apple has done. We will see Arm-based chips that are both much cheaper and much more expensive then Apple. The high-end already exists but it is priced to high to consummers.

 

senttoschool

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My own bet for marketshare is 15-20% after 5 years. Really depends on if Windows on ARM has success with OEMs or not. Apple is usually the one to give the industry a push -- not the first to do something, but the first to do it right.

Now, my projection doesn't sound huge at first, but that'd actually be a 50-100% increase from the current share. I really think that the Apple Silicon Mac Mini and MacBook Air are *that good* that they're going to lead to some people to convert (see this article on a major shift in the Japanese market that already happened).

However, that is also my absolute upper limit, in pure optimism, of what is possible. The reality of the consumer PC market is this: If people can choose between a $300 Windows laptop with a Core i3 or a $1000 Apple laptop with an M1 that's 5x faster, 9 times out of 10, people will choose the cheaper option. Even if the Apple laptop has more longevity in terms of usefulness and was actually more cost effective in the long term, most people don't plan ahead.

Phones are status symbols, but PC's aren't even a blip on the radar for most. People *really* like cheap PC's.
I think you're too pessimistic.

1. Ming Chi Kuo predicts a 100% increase in Mac shipments within 3 years. If all things are equal, then he thinks Apple will take about ~20% market share within 3 years.

2. I'm even more optimistic than Ming Chi Kuo. I think Apple will take 50% in 5 years.

3. Yes, people like cheap PCs. But those people are also using iPhones (50% in U.S.), iPads (65%+), Apple Watches (55%+). Apple just needs to win back its own customers. Many Windows users aren't strangers to Apple's ecosystem.

4. I predict a $700 Macbook SE that is faster than any Windows laptop, and with 20 hours of battery life. $400 iPhone SE is already faster than any Android phone. No reason to doubt that this wouldn't be the same in laptop/desktop market.

5. Phones are not status symbols anymore. This isn't the year 2012. Everyone has a phone and no one cares if you have an iPhone SE instead of an iPhone 12 Max Pro. And if phones are still status symbols, then that's great for Apple because a $700 Macbook SE is more "prestigious" than an equivalent PC laptop.
 
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acidfast7_redux

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Enterprises couldn't justify $1500 Macbooks for their $25,000/year employees. But what happens when there is a $700 Macbook SE that is faster than the fastest PC laptops out there and has 20hr battery life?

IBM has already proven that Macs in the enterprise actually cost less to maintain than PCs because Macs are easier to use and increase productivity.

In addition, enterprise software has largely moved to the cloud (browsers). It's much easier for enterprises to switch now than 30, 20, 10 years ago. Only the niche x86 software hasn't.


If Bloomberg's report of Apple testing 36 core CPUs and 128c core GPUs is true, then it's only a matter of time until Apple workstations are the fastest in the world. There's also a decent chance that Apple will acquire Nuvia, who is mostly comprised of ex-Apple Silicon engineers and is aiming to build massive ARM server chips.


Intel chips prevented Apple from making a good affordable laptop. If Apple made a $700 Macbook with Intel chips, they'd have to use slow the slowest i3s, or Celerons or Atom chips. Those are unbearably slow. But in 2 years, a $700 Macbook SE might be faster than any Windows laptop, just like how a $400 iPhone SE is faster than any Android phone.


Apple is the biggest gaming company in the world and it's bigger than Playstation and Xbox combined. They're no strangers to gaming.


Mac market share is influenced by price, performance, and battery life. They all matter. 50% of phone users in the U.S. use iPhones yet only 10% of PCs sold are Apple computers. That means the vast majority of iPhone users bought Windows PCs, mostly because of cheap Costco laptops. And no, these people aren't buying Windows because they need to run niche Windows x86 software.


Makes no sense for Apple to introduce a Macbook SE as the first M1 product. SE products usually come after a few generations so Apple can use older designs and older components to save on cost.

And you're right, Apple doesn't chase the low-end. They chase the low-mid-end. iPhone SE for $400. Apple Watch SE for $230 (black Friday sale). iPad for $330. No reason to doubt a $700 Macbook SE is coming.



Computing is moving more and more to the cloud. It's inevitable that Apple will also start moving a lot of the computing done locally on iDevices to the cloud. This is a trend Apple can't and won't ignore.

Again, the M1 has changed my views on Apple completely. Apple's strategy is very clear. They own the high-end and dominate the low-mid-end with SE products to acquire 50%+ market share. Then they sell those customers subscriptions and services. They've done it for phones, tablets, smartwatches, and wireless headsets. There is no reason to doubt that they can't do it for laptop/desktop markets.
I simply can't believe that any enterprise is going to hire people requiribg a computer at $25k pre-tax in the US. That's below minimum wage of several states.
 

acidfast7_redux

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Nov 10, 2020
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I think you're too pessimistic.

1. Ming Chi Kuo predicts a 100% increase in Mac shipments within 3 years. If all things are equal, then Apple will take about ~20% market share within 3 years.

2. I'm even more optimistic than Ming Chi Kuo. I think Apple will take 50% in 5 years.

3. Yes, people like cheap PCs. But those people are also using iPhones, iPads, Apple Watches. Apple just needs to win back its own customers.

4. I predict a $700 Macbook SE that is faster than any Windows laptop, and with 20 hours of battery life. $400 iPhone SE is already faster than any Android phone. No reason to doubt that this wouldn't be the same in laptop/desktop market.

5. Phones are not status symbols anymore. This isn't the year 2012. Everyone has a phone and no one cares if you have an iPhone SE instead of an iPhone 12 Max Pro. And if phones are still status symbols, then that's great for Apple because a $700 Macbook SE is more "prestigious" than an equivalent PC laptop.
Someone hasn't clearly lived in Europe or Asia.
 

senttoschool

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No. Already in 2020, there are server-class ARM-based chips that blow the M1 chip away and are like 20 or 50 times faster. Apple will never build a really fast computer. Apple is selling to consumers, not data centers.

Look at one example of what is on the market today
https://www.gigabyte.com/ARM-Server?fid=2326

The above runs Linux but there is no reason Windows or Mac OS could not be built for it. People who do need fset computers will buy these specialed machines

I think the Windows/PC market will follow what Apple has done. We will see Arm-based chips that are both much cheaper and much more expensive then Apple. The high-end already exists but it is priced to high to consummers.
You're referring to Amazon's Graviton/Marvell's ThunderX2 right? Those are server chips.

Let me just be clear then, if you want a non-server, Apple will be the fastest.

And no, AWS Graviton2 ARM or Marvell's ThunderX2 chips aren't faster for daily tasks because its single-core speed is weak and no consumer software will utilize that many cores. Single-core is what's responsible for the "snappiness" that people feel when using their computers. ARM server chips would get destroyed by the M1 when it comes to "snappiness".

PS. This is a bit like saying Apple computers will never be the fastest because you can always buy a supercomputer if you have enough money.
 
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acidfast7_redux

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I'm living in Asia now. Have lived in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Vietnam.
Well, then you're misrepresenting the younger population if you think phones don't dictate controllable social class.

Not to be rude, I just think you're statement isn't an accurate representation of what one sees on a London housing estate or a Tier 1 Chinese city.
 
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senttoschool

macrumors 68030
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Nov 2, 2017
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Well, then you're misrepresenting the younger population if you think phones don't dictate controllable social class.
1. There's probably some prestige when it comes to owning an Apple product in poor countries, and especially young people in poor countries. But this is probably far less so than in 2010-2015. When I lived in Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore, no one cared what phone you had since they were first-world. In Vietnam, there's maybe a small advantage to owning an iPhone because it's 3rd world country. But really, no one ever spoke about it and no one ever cared. I did not conduct a thorough analysis of the younger population while living there.

2. I was mostly referring to the U.S. market.

3. If prestige matters, then that helps a $700 Macbook SE.
 
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