"Tweetdeck recently launched their app for Android. They reported that they had to contend with more than 100 different versions of Android software on 244 different handsets."
Fragmentation doesn't mean development is actually a problem. Steve Jobs tells half the story. Let's allow the TweetDeck developers to tell the other half.
i believe that was the exact quote from the earnings call. whether that equates to sucky development on Android is left for anyone to infer. however i am a bit confused as to why so many people refuse to think that fragmentation will occur...
1. by it's nature Android was meant to be fragmented. that's what the whole Linux/OSS/feel good movement is based on right? so that anyone with enough time on their hands can develop their own fork/branch/whatever. if nothing else, Rubin's tweet basically says, "hey, rough me up however you like!"
2. just because #1 hasn't happened yet doesn't meant it won't. Chinese carriers are busy making their own Android based OS. European carriers are busy discussing whether to follow the Chinese in doing so. US carriers have realised the need to increase value chain presence (e.g Verizon). all carriers don't want to end up playing the role of a dump pipe like their ISP brethren. Android provides the means to do so whether Google likes it or not.
3. let's say the first two didn't happen, then what's the point of Android being open and free? so companies can install it in cutesy digital picture frames, refrigerators and TVs? isn't a TV running apps pretty much an all-in-one desktop with really big screen? Google might as well package Android up, slap a price tag on it and enjoy the extra cash flow. however, many do not like to pay for something that used to be free...
4. in my opinion Google's attitude towards fragmentation is not to soothe developers but rather hardware makers. currently HTC and Samsung will leverage Android to the max because they are able to make as many different handsets as their factories can crank out.
if/when consumers start viewing the breadth of Android handsets as a potential fragmentation problem (e.g. will this app run on model xxx or model abc?) will the hardware makers continue to increase their production? will they start trimming down their product lines? will they continue business as usual? will consumers purchase behaviour decrease/increase? will the burden of updates fall onto hardware makers or carriers?
the last thing Google wants is for Android's handset makers to decide that they are better off focusing on other OSes without perceived issues or even worse, develop their own OS. Samsung has made no secret about their attempt to create their own OS. HTC has obviously flirted with the idea of having their own OS as they were one of the bidders for Palm.
handset makers are under no delusion on the sustainability of current gangbuster profits using Android. if Windows has taught them anything, it's that making hardware for a common OS eventually mean competing on razor thin margins produced more by supply chain management rather than hardware innovation. most of them are trying to figure out how to reproduce what Apple and RIM have accomplished by providing an end-to-end business model.