Another useless quantity available thread

[macaddicted]

From boygenius.com, at the bottom:

It has been rumored that all AT&T stores are receiving between 100-250 handsets in the first initial shipment.

AT&T iPhone launch deets: crowd control

I'm no expert in production by any means, but this does seem like a realistic number. Say 150 phones per store on average (cause I hate doing math) multiplied by the number of AT&T and Apple stores (round to 2,000 cause I still hate doing math) gets you an inital shipment of 300,000 units. Correct me if I am wrong, but it doesn't seem totatally undoable in the 40 or so (24/7) days between the FCC approval and June. About 7500 units a day? Or am I just hopefully out of my mind again?

 

[applehero]

Documents appear to be official, so I will believe them. As far as the quantity numbers of 100-250 units per store, I don't know. I sure would like to see that in an official document. Those numbers coincide with what we've all heard so far, so let's keep our fingers crossed and hope it's true, but I'm not going to hold my breathe. I'm sure some of the larger stores will get 100+ phones, but I don't think the smaller stores will get 100, maybe more like 50 at best.

Thanks for sharing!!!

 

[Eric1285]

Hmm, the iPhone will be available at roughly 1,800 AT&T stores, so say an average of 175 at each of stores, works out to 315,000. Tack on an estimate of 250 iPhones at each of what, 160 or so Apple stores and you come up with a total of about 355,000. It's very believable that Apple has been able to manufacture 300-400k iPhones in the past month or so, so I'd say this is a pretty credible report in terms of feasibility. None of that BusinessWeek 3 million iPhones nonsense.

 

[judas731]

I mean I guess we wont know until the release date but I've seen some things saying they're thinking 12 or so per store, but seeing this makes me think itll be worth waiting in line for it.

 

[lekun]

Yeah, but supposedly they will also be available online, so what percentage of the available handsets will be reserved for online (1/2, 2/3rds?).

In the end, I don't see Apple doing this massive ad blitz (they've been on almost every commercial break for the OSU / UC college baseball game) only to run out of phones in the first 2 hours and then having no phones available for weeks or even a month.

They didn't need to spend any advertising dollars to run out of a small shipment. It seems to make sense to only ad blitz when you can sell to the people you are advertising to.

 

[Kingsly]

Oh man I hope this is true!

 

[cjandnw]

nothing new

I went to my local AT&T and Apple stores this evening at 8:50. No one knew anything beyond the AT&T store will close at 4:30 on the 29th. Both reps were cool. They told me to call or stop by whenever and if they get more info they will share.

 

[Gonzlobo]

I went to my local AT&T and Apple stores this evening at 8:50. No one knew anything beyond the AT&T store will close at 4:30 on the 29th. Both reps were cool. They told me to call or stop by whenever and if they get more info they will share.

Psst. They work on commission.

 

[Aniej]

Psst. They work on commission.

psstt all the more reason they would have an incentive to look out for her or a customer.

 

[cmschmidt]

logically wouldn't you think if they were staying open til 10 they would only be doing it because they know they're gonna have more than 12-36 units. what business in their right mind would come up with "crowd control" procedures and stay open til 10pm for only 12-36 items. doesn't seem very likely. we've gotta be expecting a lot more than that.

 

[/dev/toaster]

I mean I guess we wont know until the release date but I've seen some things saying they're thinking 12 or so per store, but seeing this makes me think itll be worth waiting in line for it.

That would be less then 20,000 units for all AT&T and Apple store. I really hope to god Apple can make more then that in 2 months. If not, they are totally doomed.

 

[Flowbee]

logically wouldn't you think if they were staying open til 10 they would only be doing it because they know they're gonna have more than 12-36 units. what business in their right mind would come up with "crowd control" procedures and stay open til 10pm for only 12-36 items. doesn't seem very likely. we've gotta be expecting a lot more than that.

Don't forget that selling a phone takes a long time compared to selling, say, an iPod. First the customer chooses the model they want, then they need to review all the calling plans and select one, then onto the data plans. Next comes the credit check, then payment, then choosing a phone number (or choosing to port your old number) and then activating the phone. Even under the best of circumstances (tech-savvy MacRumors member who knows what they want and has no questions), this probably takes 15 minutes. Most people will take much longer. Don't expect the lines to move quickly.

 

[SirOmega]

If your AT&T store has 5 computers/registers and they can do a phone in 15 minutes (account, phone number, plans, accessories), thats 20 phones per hour. At 6 hours is 120 phones. So I can see them being open til midnight.

Hopefully they'll have it planned out well - five people working registers with runners that will grab the phone, accessories, etc while they're punching away at the computer. So while it may take 30 minutes now to setup the plan, get equipment, etc, it should be faster with runners and assistants helping the folks ringing stuff up.

And on the numbers side, 1800 AT&T stores at 100 phones each is 180,000, and 200 Apple stores with 500 phones each is 100,000, for a total of 280,000. Any extra they've made would ship for online orders (maybe 100,000) and then the rest drop ship from China as they're made.

 

[/dev/toaster]

If your AT&T store has 5 computers/registers and they can do a phone in 15 minutes (account, phone number, plans, accessories), thats 20 phones per hour. At 6 hours is 120 phones. So I can see them being open til midnight.

Hopefully they'll have it planned out well - five people working registers with runners that will grab the phone, accessories, etc while they're punching away at the computer. So while it may take 30 minutes now to setup the plan, get equipment, etc, it should be faster with runners and assistants helping the folks ringing stuff up.

And on the numbers side, 1800 AT&T stores at 100 phones each is 180,000, and 200 Apple stores with 500 phones each is 100,000, for a total of 280,000. Any extra they've made would ship for online orders (maybe 100,000) and then the rest drop ship from China as they're made.

That is the most realistic prediction I have heard yet.

I would think closer to 50,000 for online ... like you said, they can drop ship those over the next few weeks.

I can also see some AT&T stores having more then others. Major cities will get closer to 200, where some really out in the sticks stores will get 40 or 50. Same would hold true for Apple stores. NYC might have the most due to it being 24 hours.

280,000 seems right on the money.

 

[marksman]

logically wouldn't you think if they were staying open til 10 they would only be doing it because they know they're gonna have more than 12-36 units. what business in their right mind would come up with "crowd control" procedures and stay open til 10pm for only 12-36 items. doesn't seem very likely. we've gotta be expecting a lot more than that.

One thing we know for sure is AT&T reps are being schooled to promote and sell other products to people who want the iPhone if one is not available. So even though everyone is there for the iPhone don't think that is all that AT&T, for example, is going to be trying to sell you.

If you come in and all the iPhones are gone, you can rest assured that someone will try to convince you to buy a Blackjack.

I am not saying anyone is going to do listen or do it, but that is the mindset.

 

[applehero]

That is the most realistic prediction I have heard yet.

I would think closer to 50,000 for online ... like you said, they can drop ship those over the next few weeks.

I can also see some AT&T stores having more then others. Major cities will get closer to 200, where some really out in the sticks stores will get 40 or 50. Same would hold true for Apple stores. NYC might have the most due to it being 24 hours.

280,000 seems right on the money.

I agree, this is very realistic. Makes more sense for Apple to put out as much as they can for immediate sell, see how the market reacts, what demand is like, then prepare the factory for production for drop shipments. Saves them money in the long run...

 

[SirOmega]

Yea, its likely the Apple flagship stores in major cities (NYC, SF) will have closer to 1000 or possibly more phones. Most other stores will probably have 500.

Still, I'll be in line around the time my local AT&T store closes. There are two AT&T stores within 3 miles of each other so I wonder if they'll share a shipment or something like that.