Hello
- As my signature says, I'm a computer science student, currently doing my master's. Hope I can help alleviate some concerns.
Sure. Intel and AMD will improve, but Apple will improve too. The M1 isn't the end foe Apple just like the 11th gen isn't the final generation of chips from Intel. That's not to say that AMD and/or Intel won't ever make a chip rivalling Apple's contemporary offering - anything can happen and AMD was far behind before they revealed the Zen architecture, but competition in the market will just force everyone to make better products.
As for developer effort, for 95% of situations the extra effort to develop an Apple Silicon version of your software over an x86 version is literally 0. You check a little checkbox and the compiler will make an AARCH64 version. That's it. You may need to add a line or two to a build script if you're not using Xcode.
Most code is not written to be architecture dependant. The greater effort is and has always been porting from Windows APIs to macOS APIs not the CPU architecture. The switch from PowerPC to Intel was also a bit harder/made new ports easier because PowerPC is big endian which means it reads/writes memory starting from the "big end" where both x86 and ARM are little endian. There may be some testing involved which may make some developers initially hesitant because they may have bugs in their code already which just don't reveal themselves on the current platform but well written higher level code will just work regardless of what CPU is in the machine, after re-compiling it.
That said, some developers are sitting on code that is either machine dependant, like virtualisation software relying on VT-D/x or other operating systems for that matter. Or even where the code has been written to give optimised performance using AVX instructions and has no fallback for non-AVX supporting devices. This means the software also won't run on older x86 chips but they'll have to rewrite that code with a pure standard instruction based approach or use NEON intrinsics instead. But this is a tiny amount of software. All software on the Mac has already been developed specifically for the Mac, or using something like Electron - nothing will really change for either approach.
This isn't really different from Intel Macs, other than two factors.
1) Bootcamp isn't an option
2) Even a lowly MacBook Air is now actually capable of playing games where it wasn't on Intel.
I am very optimistic on the future of games on the Mac - all games won't be available. Most probably won't. But the ones that will be available will run a hell of a lot better than they ever have in the past and we're already seeing that. - And Bootcamp eventually coming to Apple Silicon Macs is not entirely impossible and until then a lot can be played with CrossOver and virtualisation anyway. Remarkably much on the M1 considering the overhead.
For more of my thoughts on this I recommend the MacGameCast podcast where me and some other folks have discussed the future of Mac gaming at length. Both our first episode and our episode with Andrew Tsai go into Apple Silicon specifically.
It's available on Apple Podcast, Spotify, YouTube - basically everywhere. Here's an Apple Podcast link
Games Podcast · 55 Episodes · Monthly
podcasts.apple.com
In raw power, yes, but the M1 is doing it at 1/8th the wattage. Apple has a lot of headroom to grow.
Intel's Alder Lake is promising and I have high hopes for that. AMD's new cache system likewise is promising and I have high hopes for it. Ideally all three players will do well and push each other to greater and greater products.
But I think Apple Silicon is good and will continue to be incredibly impressive. I have no worries as far as the future goes in all but one area. I can envision what we'll see for all Macs except one. The Mac Pro. I'm leaning on thinking it'll use a form of chiplet solution to leverage the economy of scale of M1X chips - or M2X at that time perhaps - Into M2Z, M2WX, etc. (my naming ideas).