Anyone else worried about how long Apple will support the M1 chip for?

[scaramoosh]

Seriously the M1 was so good I do not feel any need to upgrade, I've never had that feeling with a Mac before where they seem to age so fast in the past. Obviously this isn't good for Apple and I wonder how long it'll be before Apple drops support for first and probably second gen M chips, before blaming some arbitrary thing as an excuse. With Intel there was a least Bootcamp to fall back on and I had my 2006 iMac running on Windows 7 until they dropped support the other year. However what if Apple does an iPhone and they only support it for 5 or 6 years... That would be terrible! I plan to use mine until the battery goes to crap and then give it to my mum as she uses her laptops like a desktop anyways.

I really hope if they do not actively support newer Operating Systems for them, that they at least update the drivers for 15 or so years. I still have a 4770K/750ti system I'm using and it's getting driver updates 10 years later.

 

[MajorFubar]

Yes to a degree because I invested heavily in a ripped M1 Mac Studio shortly after it was launched and i'm not yet ready to be told it's obsolete. But I also try to put into context what 'obsolete' means. Third-party app vendors commonly support computers and OS's for long after Apple have decided to obsolete my computer because I'm just poor proletariat scum. For example I was using a bought-from-new maxed-out 2011 27" iMac until i bought this Studio, and although Apple had long obsoleted it, there wasn't really much I couldn't do with it other than being barred from downloading Apple's latest OS's and apps.

 

[lixuelai]

The MacBook Air M1 was only discontinued this year. I'd expect at least 4 more years of OS upgrades.

 

[MRMSFC]

Going off Apple’s past record, we’re likely to see about 7 years of MacOS support and a couple more for security updates.

Granted, it’s not Windows, but Asahi Linux has been making great strides in compatibility, and should be a choice once official support runs out.

 

[MajorFubar]

The MacBook Air M1 was only discontinued this year. I'd expect at least 4 more years of OS upgrades.

Yeah doesn't work like that. The 13" 2012 non-retina MBP (A1278) was only discontinued in 2016 having been on sale for 4 years because it was massively popular being the last MBP with a large hard drive, a ton of ports and even an optical drive. Literally one year later it could no longer download the latest OS.

 

[leman]

I really hope if they do not actively support newer Operating Systems for them, that they at least update the drivers for 15 or so years.

That is certainly not going to happen. There is no reason to believe that M1 will be supported longer than any other Apple product.

I still have a 4770K/750ti system I'm using and it's getting driver updates 10 years later.

The 4770K end of service was in 2021. Which means that there are no bug fixes or other support. Nvidia tends to support their GPUs for a while, Maxwell will probably be dropped from the drivers some time next year.

 

[JPack]

Historically, Apple stops major macOS updates at 6-7 years after product launch. Since M1 is a 2020 product, that puts it at 2026-2027. Product discontinue date has always been irrelevant.

 

[Ray2]

Mine was shipped with Monterey. It still runs Monterey. And it will run Monterey until apps I actually use to do something require an upgrade. From a MacOS pov, for those that desire the latest bug ridden releases from Apple for the sake of some widgets and marginal features, yes, discontinued support will end your ability to upgrade. Probably in Apples usual cycle. However, from a productive pov, I suspect life cycles will be reduced. If I look at all the constant loads on my cpu, it tends to be Spotlight, Window server and a media server that’s not in use. As more apps jump on the AI bandwagon, they will increasingly compete with those processes. I’ve already started seeing this with Adobe where spinners that didn’t use to happen on my M1 are now common. That leads me to believe, even with continuing support, life cycles will decrease. Apple certainly is not going to streamline background processes so we can avoid buying new Macs. I’m already looking at a Studio and will see how the M4 chip develops on that model.

 

[EugW]

Yes. My wife only needs M1 performance but I’m waiting for M4 to replace her 2017 dual-core i5 instead of getting a refurb or used M1 or M2, for a few reasons:

1. macOS support schedule will be many years longer for M4
2. Base RAM for M4 will likely be increased to 12-16 GB RAM
3. I will likely be able to take advantage of the 2025 Back-To-School promotion for the M4 MacBook Air

Note that I only bought the i5 after the M1 came out, but the reason is I got it dirt cheap used. I paid around US$300 for a near perfect machine. I haven’t been able to find deals that good on used Apple Silicon machines. If I could buy a decent used 16 GB M2 MacBook Air for under US$500 shipped, I would, but I can’t find one anywhere near that cheap. And Apple refurb prices don‘t impress when compared to the Back-To-School promotion.

 

[AdamBuker]

I don't expect Apple will drop M1 support anytime soon as there are still some Intel Macs that supported under Sequoia. I would imagine that as long as Walmart is still selling the M1 MacBook Air, they won't drop support. I think Apple is probably going to prioritize Apple Intelligence going forward and I think the M1 Macs will stay supported as long their performance is acceptable.

Now if you go by RAM requirements and the rumor that the M4 will have a 16GB baseline RAM, then I could see Apple dropping M1 through M3 Macs while supporting the Pro, Max, and Ultra variants in 2028 at the earliest. This is probably unlikely as I imagine it's probably easier to plan future OS features around SOC generation capabilities rather than available RAM. Using RAM as a cutoff point used to make sense when it could be upgraded, but since that's no longer the case, I imagine that Apple will support the M1 as long as they support 8GB memory configurations assuming there isn't some future version of the OS that requires a feature that is not present on any of the M1 SOC variants.

I think Sequoia is probably the penultimate release for Intel Macs with MacOS 16 being the very last Intel Mac OS release. I expect that when it comes time to drop Intel altogether, Apple will announce in the preview that this will be the last version that will support it. I also think there is no way that Apple is going to drop any Apple Silicon model before dropping the last of the Intel Macs. I also think that the first AS only MacOS release will still support all AS Macs. At this rate that would be Mac OS 18 in 2027 that could be the first for dropping any AS Mac. Even in that case you would have two more years of security updates for MacOS 17 taking you into 2029. Even at that, with the performance of the AS lineup, I would not doubt that someone comes up with an OCLP type of solution to run newer MacOS versions on older AS hardware.

In short, I estimate there is at least a minimum of 3-4 years of official support left for M1 AS devices. By the time that runs out, a used M3 or M4 machine will be cheap enough to replace it.

 

[JPack]

I don't expect Apple will drop M1 support anytime soon as there are still some Intel Macs that supported under Sequoia. I would imagine that as long as Walmart is still selling the M1 MacBook Air, they won't drop support.

We already know based on history, that has very little to do with Apple's decision.

For example, Apple was selling 21.5-inch iMacs through 2021. That model only supported one major macOS update, then was no longer supported by Sonoma.

Now if you go by RAM requirements and the rumor that the M4 will have a 16GB baseline RAM, then I could see Apple dropping M1 through M3 Macs while supporting the Pro, Max, and Ultra variants in 2028 at the earliest. This is probably unlikely as I imagine it's probably easier to plan future OS features around SOC generation capabilities rather than available RAM. Using RAM as a cutoff point used to make sense when it could be upgraded, but since that's no longer the case, I imagine that Apple will support the M1 as long as they support 8GB memory configurations assuming there isn't some future version of the OS that requires a feature that is not present on any of the M1 SOC variants.

Specs have very little to do with Apple's decision.

For example, iPad Pro 10.5 has A10X with 4GB RAM. iPad 7 has A10 with 3GB RAM. Only the latter supports iPadOS 18. It's clear that Apple bases their OS support decision on launch date rather than specs or sales dates.

 

[bodonnell202]

Based on what Apple has been doing for the last roughly 15 years, I'm guessing M1 devices will get about 7 years of software updates (from release date), with another 2 years of security updates only. Following that pattern that would mean M1 Macs would get MacOS 17 in fall 2026 and wouldn't get MacOS 18 in fall 2027, but with security support continuing for MacOS 17 until fall 2029. Could be 1 year more or less but I doubt they'll deviate from that by much.

 

[Teletypewriter]

Hey, don’t forget that in May 2021, the iPad Pro’s were released with the new M1 chip, and replaced in Oct 2022 with the M2 version. I am still chugging along on my M1 iPad Pro w/1TB of storage and 16GB of RAM. It will have no problem running Apple intelligence on-machine.

 

[Mr.Fox]

Seriously the M1 was so good I do not feel any need to upgrade, I've never had that feeling with a Mac before where they seem to age so fast in the past. Obviously this isn't good for Apple and I wonder how long it'll be before Apple drops support for first and probably second gen M chips, before blaming some arbitrary thing as an excuse. With Intel there was a least Bootcamp to fall back on and I had my 2006 iMac running on Windows 7 until they dropped support the other year. However what if Apple does an iPhone and they only support it for 5 or 6 years... That would be terrible! I plan to use mine until the battery goes to crap and then give it to my mum as she uses her laptops like a desktop anyways.

I really hope if they do not actively support newer Operating Systems for them, that they at least update the drivers for 15 or so years. I still have a 4770K/750ti system I'm using and it's getting driver updates 10 years later.

On average, software is supported for 10 years for computers. iPhones, iPads - 6 years. If we talk about spare parts, then 10 years, including batteries for laptops. This is if we are talking about official service. If not official, then as a rule, copies of spare parts, including cables, are sold for 15 years.
Minor security related upgrades are supported for up to 15 years. An update will only be released when a vulnerability is discovered.
Solving software problems and providing advice and assistance over the phone for 20 years. You will only need to provide the serial number or IMEI of the device

 

[lostPod]

Yesss good question. I just recently picked up an M1 mac mini used and this thing flies!

 

[Bodhitree]

I would hope my M1 iMac has a good few years left in it, it is still as fast and responsive as under Big Sur… no need to upgrade for a while.

 

[danpass]

Nah. I'm gonna trade in my M1 iPad Pro for an M3 13 Air.

I'm just not liking the mobile Thinkorswim (stocks app) on the iPad.

I'll fill the 'iPad gap' with the next iteration of the Mini.

-

 

[mi7chy]

Support can be as short as four years based on Sequoia supported models.

Prolonging support is less of a technical issue and more of a business decision. Sales and finance usually have the last say on dropping support to drive sales of newer models and based on Steam hardware survey M1 is prime target with combined model marketshare of 38% but probably higher in the broader view.

Another consideration is what happens to used market price when support is dropped and there's still no fully complete alternative OS like Linux option to fall back on? If MBA M1 is going for about $400 on Ebay then how much will it drop when that happens?

 

[chars1ub0w]

The real question will be: how smoothly will M1 Macs run Apple Intelligence tasks that are client side? If there are real-time features, I can see them saying you need an M3 or M4. So I would not buy a M1 in 2024. (I have a M1 Max 16" MBP on Sonoma with lots of RAM. I hope I can replace it soon with the 14" M4 Max with lots of RAM for future proofing.)

 

[JuicyGoomba]

The real question will be: how smoothly will M1 Macs run Apple Intelligence tasks that are client side? If there are real-time features, I can see them saying you need an M3 or M4. So I would not buy a M1 in 2024. (I have a M1 Max 16" MBP on Sonoma with lots of RAM. I hope I can replace it soon with the 14" M4 Max with lots of RAM for future proofing.)

I'm sure the 5 people with M1 macs that actually care about AI will be devastated

 

[chars1ub0w]

I'm sure the 5 people with M1 macs that actually care about AI will be devastated

Apple doesn't hype AI like some other companies. Apple takes a conservative approach. When Apple releases Apple Intelligence, I'm pretty sure they will add features that will prove useful and time saving for all of us. Maybe that'll not cover your particular use cases, but Apple is a pretty smart company. And those features will drive adoption of later systems.

 

[dmr727]

I expect to have security updates for my M1 MBA through at least 2027, hopefully a bit longer. I've never cared about running the latest version of MacOS - I'm sensitive to any decrease in responsiveness, so there's always a point in my hardware's lifespan where I'm running a version or two behind. As long as I'm getting security updates and can run my software, I'm fine.

 

[dmccloud]

The real question will be: how smoothly will M1 Macs run Apple Intelligence tasks that are client side? If there are real-time features, I can see them saying you need an M3 or M4. So I would not buy a M1 in 2024. (I have a M1 Max 16" MBP on Sonoma with lots of RAM. I hope I can replace it soon with the 14" M4 Max with lots of RAM for future proofing.)

Apple said back at WWDC that M1 was the baseline for Apple Intelligence support. Beyond that anything is just speculation. I think that for a lot of the use cases demonstrated at WWDC and the September event it will not make a high difference in terms of M1 vs M2/3/4/etc. I would wager that any Apple Silicon Mac (regardless of SoC) with 8GB RAM would have issues with some of the Apple Intelligence features,and it is possible even 16GB may not be enough for some use cases. What I would like to know more about is the mechanism via which the determination is made whether to run queries just in the device or to use the cloud.

 

[EugW]

Apple said back at WWDC that M1 was the baseline for Apple Intelligence support. Beyond that anything is just speculation. I think that for a lot of the use cases demonstrated at WWDC and the September event it will not make a high difference in terms of M1 vs M2/3/4/etc. I would wager that any Apple Silicon Mac (regardless of SoC) with 8GB RAM would have issues with some of the Apple Intelligence features,and it is possible even 16GB may not be enough for some use cases. What I would like to know more about is the mechanism via which the determination is made whether to run queries just in the device or to use the cloud.

Xcode's AI predictive code completion had a mandatory minimum 16 GB requirement several months ago. However, now it's 8 GB. Hmm...

 

[Corefile]

Sequoia still supports 2018 Mac Mini so that system will at least be supported until Sequoia is EOL'd in 2027. That would be 9 years, assuming that the next OS X release doesn't support the 2018 Mini. Add two years for the 2020 M1 Mini is my best guess.