This is something I've wondered about. I know the 2010 and 2012 are identical physically and from a model ID perspective, but are they from an Apple support perspective?
Will Apple cut off the 2010 from support 2 years earlier, and can a 2010 be made to look like a 2012 if this happens?
Yes
The serial number would still identify the machine as a 2010 model so it'd be pointless
It really depends on how Apple decides to go about providing support for the Mac Pro. Apple has not explicitly stated that an EFI/Boot ROM update is forthcoming, only that support will be added in some way.
1) Firmware (EFI) update route: 2010 and 2012 will likely both be upgradable but Apple will likely only document that the 2012 models can take it. There is no outward hardware difference between these models. This might also mean that the 2009 models which are also very similar to the 2010/2012 Mac Pro's will be able to get this update via a wee bit of installer hacking (ala the Mac Pro 4,1 to 5,1 firmware upgrades).
Earl Urley, Apple traditionally does not use the serial number as a marker for updates but rather the Model Identifier. So while the inevitable support site might only list 2012, the reality may be different.
2) Helper Partition route: The other option is that Apple implements an HFS+ helper partition on an APFS drive that starts the Mac Pro up and then lets it boot into the APFS partition. This would mean that effectively any Mac (2009 firmware upgraded, 2010/2012) that can run High Sierra would be able to be upgraded to running APFS.
My bet is on a helper partition and not a firmware update.