APPL: closing in on a high again -- why?

[IJ Reilly]

APPL is within striking distance of the all-time high it achieved in early January, and it isn't clear to me why this is happening. The closing price of $77.61 on September 26 is the highest close we've seen since late January, after bouncing off a recent low of around $48 just a few months ago. The move up was especially sharp in the last two weeks, a period when the news coming from the company seemed somewhat underwhelming to me.

Don't get me wrong, my portfolio is grateful -- but it always bugs me when I can't get a handle on why a stock I own makes a big move, up or down.

Thoughts? News I missed?

 

[WildCowboy]

I'm not really sure myself, which is why I didn't get back into AAPL near the bottom. I guess people are still psyched about the potential for movie downloads, iTV, and the iPhone. The analysts have been pretty steadfast in their $90-$100 price targets, and maybe investors are taking comfort in that.

It'll be interesting to see what the earnings announcement says in three weeks...I feel like they've been treading water a bit lately, so how the results match up to expectations could mean a lot.

 

[rdowns]

My portfolio is loving it as well (my cost basis is under $12) as those I know who took my advice and bought Apple.

I think this is a major reason.

http://www.appleinsider.com/article.php?id=2079

 

[IJ Reilly]

My portfolio is loving it as well (my cost basis is under $12) as those I know who took my advice and bought Apple.

I think this is a major reason.

http://www.appleinsider.com/article.php?id=2079

I've seen this, but it was the only significant positive news of the last week or so and not enough to support such a solid move up. The movie downloads announcement was received tepidly I thought, with lots of caveats attached. That fact that only Disney came along for the ride was taken as weakness by many, which is how I read it.

The cost basis on the shares I still own is around $5-6, so I'm not real anxious to sell. But if AAPL keeps going up without any clear means of support, I might feel compelled to sell some just to avoid being caught in another downdraft.

 

[rdowns]

I've seen this, but it was the only significant positive news of the last week or so and not enough to support such a solid move up. The movie downloads announcement was received tepidly I thought, with lots of caveats attached. That fact that only Disney came along for the ride was taken as weakness by many, which is how I read it.

The cost basis on the shares I still own is around $5-6, so I'm not real anxious to sell. But if AAPL keeps going up without any clear means of support, I might feel compelled to sell some just to avoid being caught in another downdraft.

$5-$6- I'm jealous. I sold about half my Apple stock on the ride down from $80 to around $65. I plan on holding my remaining 625 shares for a long time.

I think the upgrade and the every quarter run up to earnings is the reason. Three weeks to earnings.

 

[IJ Reilly]

$5-$6- I'm jealous. I sold about half my Apple stock on the ride down from $80 to around $65. I plan on holding my remaining 625 shares for a long time.

I think the upgrade and the every quarter run up to earnings is the reason. Three weeks to earnings.

I bought my first lot in 1997, and twice thereafter. The later shares are gone already, but the low-basis shares are waiting for the perfect moment to sell, which will probably never come, of course.

 

[kidzdoc]

Target price upgrade

The recent rise in the stock price is due to an increase in the target price of the stock to $100 from a firm called ThinkEquity Partners. The reasons listed for the upgrade are:
"Apple’s Back-To-School season was healthy.
Leopard and iLife software refreshes and the launch of the iTV in early [calendar 2007] and success in the enterperise later in ‘07 will boost revenues, increase earnings power, and expand valuation multiples.
Apple (like other PC vendors) will also benefit from pent-up demand in European markets.
Apple retail stores appear primed to deliver back-to-back solid quarters in the September and December quarters.
There is potential for up to $400 million (or over 40 cents a share) in contribution profits from Leopard in the 12 months after its release."

I hope the momentum keeps going.

 

[SMM]

Wall Street would have us small investors believe that everyone has equal access to information about companies. That is rubbish. There is clearly 'insider' information we are not privy to. In this case, it is anyone's guess as to what is coming down the road. It could be a stock split. It could be an acquisition.

I have been buying the stock for a few years now. Most want to have some tech in their portfolio. Apple has been posting solid results for many consecutive quarters. They have been more stable than just about anyone out there. Many investors keep waiting for them to take a nose dive. However, in the past 18 months, several analysts have been seeing many of the same things we Apple supporters understand. It is a fantastic, well-run company and has great vision. The diversity of their revenues gives them an advantage over most of their competitors. So, I would expect their stock to follow market swings, but continue to advance upward. That is the type of re-assurance most moderate investors are attracted to.

That is my observation and current belief.