APPL Stock Buy or not to Buy????

[PuruPurfler]

AAPL: should you buy apple stock?Revenue dropped 15%, but at $42.4 billion, the company managed to keep its revenue above the expected $42.1 billion thanks to higher-than-expected “iPhone” sales. As for iPhones in particular, the company sold 40.4 million units, which beat expectations of 39.9 million units.
But is Apple’s stock a “Buy” now and what is the Apple stock forecast? Apple stock in 2016 will remain volatile. Investors want to believe in a comeback and they are apparently willing to forego reality checks. They were willing to muster a bullish response even as Apple sales—when it comes down to it—simply proved they were dropping.Yes, Apple also said that the iPhone is still able to draw customers into the company’s stores. Indeed, Apple suggested that iPhone sales have finally reached a bottom. Yet iPhone sales in key markets like China dropped by 33% amid growing competition with local brands.

 

[talmy]

The only thing anyone knows for sure is that the stock will go up and down. Anyone with a functional crystal ball will keep the information to themselves and get rich.

Disclaimer -- I own Apple stock, but not so much I'm going to lose sleep over it.

 

[Bart Kela]

Internet Rule #1: Do not ask for medical advice online.
Internet Rule #2: Do not ask for investment advice online.

Above all, do not ask about Apple investment advice especially on an Apple enthusiast site like MacRumors. You are better off doing your own independent research using sites like Yahoo Finance:

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/analysts?p=AAPL

rather than posting such inquiries to an anonymous Q&A forum like this one.

I bought some shares of AAPL many years ago and they grew to the point of being a large part of my portfolio, so I sold some a while back at a tidy profit (in a tax-free Roth IRA account, no less). I still directly own some shares, but like talmy, I don't have so many as to lose sleep over them.

Whatever you decide, it would be wise to consider portfolio diversification rather than making a naive fanboy investment in a favorite company's stock. Personally, I would keep no more than 10% of my portfolio in any single company's stock.

AAPL has been a stellar performer in my portfolio in the past, but it has been more lackluster in the past 3 years compared to some of my other investments. I have no immediate plans to sell my remaining position of AAPL nor am I considering increasing my shares.

I see AAPL as a value stock, not a growth stock anymore.

Anyhow, good luck with your investment decision.

 

[MacDann]

Definitely agree with the previous poster. Apple is (now) a value stock, not growth.

I have bought and held Apple stock since the late 1990s. Needless to say, I'm long on Apple and it's a very large part of my holdings. If things were ever to get sketchy with Apple, I would dump my holdings and move on. However, no matter what the stock, the only way you can be in the market and expect to have a good return is to be in it for the long haul. I might look at prices once a day, if that, but I don't really put a lot of concern or emphasis on daily numbers. I'm looking out years...

I don't believe that the days of the epic gains Apple has made in the past will return, but if you want to buy and hold for a while you should be fine. Institutional investors have turned their backs on Apple in recent years because they're not getting the astronomical returns they were enjoying a few years back. Investment houses seem to trash Apple of late despite their actual numbers being very, very good compared to any other major company in the market - I mean, you punish a company because they didn't hit their numbers, but yet they returned a profit in the 30th percentile in a quarter? Really?

MacDann, retiring well courtesy of Steve Jobs

 

[MhzDoesMatter]

I think Apple will continue to be a great stock to hold for value for a considerable while. Long term, I do see growth in the expansion of Apple services, more than hardware. But if you're looking for quick gains, I don't think you'll find it in AAPL.

 

[BeefCake 15]

@PuruPurfler if you look at AAPL past stock performance it's quite high right now. You can start your research here https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL?p=AAPL

 

[HiRez]

I own a ton of AAPL, but I sold 1/2 of it in December and will probably sell the rest this week while it is near its all-time high. The direction of the company, Tim Cook's "vision" (or lack thereof), talent exodus like Chris Lattner are all partial reasons.

But the biggest concern I have is China. They've been increasingly hostile towards Apple, thus far playing some cat and mouse games like closing down the iBooks store to keep them in their place. But I think these annoyances will get worse as China ratchets up its protectionist policies against US companies. In particular, I am very concerned about Trump starting a trade war with China. With China becoming increasingly important to Apple both as a manufacturing base and as a place they want to sell their products, I see Apple as extremely exposed. As the world's most valuable company and symbolism of American success in technology and business, Apple would be the Chinese government's primary target.

Certainly, they could still find a way to manufacture their products and/or sell them elsewhere in the world. But the disruption while they scramble to change their entire operation would be terrible. Any news of, for example, their gross margins or average selling price taking a hit, manufacturing problems, lack of supply, etc. would I believe have a crushing effect on AAPL's stock price, stoked by the media just ready to pile on Apple at the slightest whiff of bad news.

 

[talmy]

I own a ton of AAPL, but I sold 1/2 of it in December and will probably sell the rest this week while it is near its all-time high. ...

Then you will kick yourself next week when it goes to 150.

Perhaps.

 

[phoneme]

i sold all my aapl stock about 2 years ago and grabbed some bitcoins the price then was about 225 per coin todays price is around 980-1000 so yea i'm totally glad i got rid of my apple stock.

 

[HiRez]

Then you will kick yourself next week when it goes to 150.

Perhaps.

Yeah, certainly possible. But since I bought all my AAPL at between $28 and $98 (adjusted for the 2014 7:1 split), I feel like I did pretty well. And if something terrible happens and the stock does get hammered, I'd certainly look at maybe jumping back in again. But again, the China thing scares me as long as Apple is so dependent on the country.

 

[Cineplex]

Based on the fact Apple is now a one trick pony....its only a matter of time until the stock tanks. I don't see any possible way for it to grow. If it were 1994 I would say buy....today I say sell. You might be able to short it....but it will be a wait.

 

[oneMadRssn]

I think you should wait till the next version, which will be thinner. No sense getting old stock now when new stock is right around the corner.

 

[C DM]

Based on the fact Apple is now a one trick pony....its only a matter of time until the stock tanks. I don't see any possible way for it to grow. If it were 1994 I would say buy....today I say sell. You might be able to short it....but it will be a wait.

Who would know where things would be going in 1994? At that time things could have just gone down completely as they basically almost did. No one really knew that was going to happen or how much of a turn around there would be. Just as no one really knows much one way or another at this point.

 

[talmy]

Based on the fact Apple is now a one trick pony....its only a matter of time until the stock tanks. I don't see any possible way for it to grow. If it were 1994 I would say buy....today I say sell. You might be able to short it....but it will be a wait.

In 1994 Apple was a one trick pony (discounting the laughingstock Newton), and a lame one at that. They didn't gain a second trick until 2001 with the iPod, and sales of that didn't really take off until 2004.

 

[Cineplex]

In 1994 Apple was a one trick pony (discounting the laughingstock Newton), and a lame one at that. They didn't gain a second trick until 2001 with the iPod, and sales of that didn't really take off until 2004.

It is the same today. It's all iOS and nothing more. Todays Mac is the Apple II of 1994.

 

[C DM]

It is the same today. It's all iOS and nothing more. Todays Mac is the Apple II of 1994.

And yet we know how Apple did in the 20 years that followed 1994.

 

[Cineplex]

And yet we know how Apple did in the 20 years that followed 1994.

And what goes up....must come down. Ask Motorola how they are doing post Razr....oh you can't...they are gone.

 

[C DM]

And what goes up....must come down. Ask Motorola how they are doing post Razr....oh you can't...they are gone.

That's the thing, no one can really tell one way or another given that there are examples of all kinds going in different directions out there already.

 

[talmy]

And what goes up....must come down. Ask Motorola how they are doing post Razr....oh you can't...they are gone.

Motorola Mobility was spun off from Motorola in 2010 and now doesn't exist as its own entity. Motorola was renamed Motorola Solutions at that time and is still around. Market symbol MSI. Dropped 5% today but has had a steady rise since the 2008 recession. And they are profitable. The spin off was because the cell phone business was a drag on their profits.

Motorola has been around for 88 years.

I received a college graduation gift from my uncle of a share of Washington Gas Light (WGL) in 1971. The share was 25 5/8 at the time, and has done a 2:1 spit twice. Today it's worth $330.64. It's always paid a dividend as well, currently 2.47%. I suppose it must come down, but probably only when we run out of natural gas. The company is 169 years old.

AAPL is up 12% since this thread started.

 

[Cineplex]

Motorola Mobility was spun off from Motorola in 2010 and now doesn't exist as its own entity. Motorola was renamed Motorola Solutions at that time and is still around. Market symbol MSI. Dropped 5% today but has had a steady rise since the 2008 recession. And they are profitable. The spin off was because the cell phone business was a drag on their profits.

Motorola has been around for 88 years.

I received a college graduation gift from my uncle of a share of Washington Gas Light (WGL) in 1971. The share was 25 5/8 at the time, and has done a 2:1 spit twice. Today it's worth $330.64. It's always paid a dividend as well, currently 2.47%. I suppose it must come down, but probably only when we run out of natural gas. The company is 169 years old.

AAPL is up 12% since this thread started.

Motorola is not the same company at all. Motorola Solutions is only a fraction of what the real Motorola was. Most of the products Motorola made are gone, most of the patens are sold, and the people are gone. Motorola is alive in name (sort of), but not in anything else. Motorola has become a license whore selling its logo to anyone that will slap it on. Motorola died the day the symbol MOT was not longer used and the company could not be referenced simply as Motorola. The loss of Motorola was probably one of the biggest cultural/brand losses in US History.

 

[ActionableMango]

AAPL is up 12% since this thread started.

As a shareholder I'm pretty happy about that, but I struggle to understand why such a big jump.

Products have matured. Growth is gone. The latest financials weren't great. The car project has failed or is on hold. Watch seems stagnant to me. Studios continue to hold the line against easy TV. And unfortunately the media likes to bash Apple over every little thing.

Underpriced value is there relative to other companies, but that's been there for many years so to me that just seems to be the normal value for AAPL.

 

[talmy]

Motorola is not the same company at all. [...] The loss of Motorola was probably one of the biggest cultural/brand losses in US History.

Technology companies must change or die. Motorola smartly sold or spun off divisions in which it could no longer make money. My point is you could have bought MOT at any time in the past, held it to today, and still have something of value.

Products have matured. Growth is gone. The latest financials weren't great.

Financials were good enough for the bump. AAPL is no longer a growth company. But they now are issuing dividends, have a ton of cash, and still make money hand over fist when competitors make little or lose. My concern is that they are so big they can't design new products fast enough or work out existing bugs. Why do they need the Space Ship when they turn out so few products a year? They need to split into separate divisions based on product lines to get the design efficiency back.

 

[AidenShaw]

Why do they need the Space Ship when they turn out so few products a year? They need to split into separate divisions based on product lines to get the design efficiency back.

I wonder about this too. Especially since the space ship is just a minor part of their growth - they're leasing, buying and building many other offices in the South Bay.

They're apparently not hiring engineers to design new products - what are all these people doing?

 

[talmy]

I wonder about this too. Especially since the space ship is just a minor part of their growth - they're leasing, buying and building many other offices in the South Bay.

They're apparently not hiring engineers to design new products - what are all these people doing?

They exit the router business after not producing a product for 3 years. They exit the Display business after not producing a product for 5 years. Yet they apparently had teams doing development for both. No way for them to be competitive in these commodity markets, but they still had people working on them?

 

[Bart Kela]

I think that's part of Apple's operational strategy to utilize existing product teams to propose future product designs and assess the viability of those proposed products vis-a-vis the marketplace.

Sure, the router & display businesses aren't going away anytime soon, but Apple has decided that it is no longer in their best interest in pursuing this. Better for Apple to stop development at a moment before their products sell at a loss (which we know a three-year old router won't do).

No matter, Apple can offer these engineering team members other positions within the company.

A display engineer would likely be able to contribute to the iMac or MacBook division. A router engineer could probably find a suitably rewarding job in almost any Apple product division.

Remember that Apple pits various teams to come up with new product designs and not every one ends up as a shipping product.

In a similar way, you can't just take 20-30 teenage girls and tell them that they will be the Olympic women's soccer team in ten years. You need to explore various options, including talent pools. Not everything a company or individual will do will be a qualified success.

That's just life.