I've had it go both ways... I had an 8600M GT MacBook Pro failure last year literally 3 months after the extended warranty ended. Cost me $300.So nice when it works out like this, although there are just as many stories (or more, given how the intarwebs like to complain) about "my <apple product> died 20 days after my warranty/applecare expired and I'm so screwed and pissed"