Apple is doomed

[JonL12345]

I fear for the future of Apple. They were an innovative company with compelling design under Steve Jobs. However, we are now at a tipping point.

Steve jobs is no longer with Apple, they have a stale OS, their phones have now been matched in build quality (Nexus 4), the Android app store has caught up in volume of apps, they went backwards with maps and in my opinion, the wheels have started to fall off the Apple steamroller.

They have become a gigantic sloth that moves slower, innovates less and is milking their monopoly they created with clever product release events where everybody says "Amazing" a hundred times or "Incredible" in every other sentence. But people are not stupid. You can only be hoodwinked for so long.

When Apple fanboys start to look at Android, many feel cheated. They realise that Android has a far superior operating system and they have been ring-fenced by fanboy eulogizing, many of whom are just spouting stuff their heard their buddy say without looking for themselves.

We have reached a tipping point for Apple. Their share price already dropped on the announcement of the new Nexus prices. The city traders are not stupid, they can see what is happening. Apple is due a decline over the next 5 years as Google swamp the market with Android, with LG and particularly Samsung making huge gains in market share.

You read it here first.

Jon

 

[AQUADock]

I stopped reading when you compared a phone to a tablet.

 

[jsw]

I stopped reading when you compared a phone to a tablet.

I don't agree with the OP's opinion, but the Nexus 4 is a phone, not a tablet.

 

[JonL12345]

You obviously don't know what you are talking about. A Nexus 4 is a phone.

 

[AQUADock]

I don't agree with the OP's opinion, but the Nexus 4 is a phone, not a tablet.

You obviously don't know what you are talking about. A Nexus 4 is a phone.

You're both correct I got mixed up with the nexus 7.

 

[jbennardo]

Monopoly... yeah. Since only Apple makes smartphones.

 

[MonkeySee....]

I fear for the future of Apple. They were an innovative company with compelling design under Steve Jobs. However, we are now at a tipping point.

Steve jobs is no longer with Apple, they have a stale OS, their phones have now been matched in build quality (Nexus 4), the Android app store has caught up in volume of apps, they went backwards with maps and in my opinion, the wheels have started to fall off the Apple steamroller.

They have become a gigantic sloth that moves slower, innovates less and is milking their monopoly they created with clever product release events where everybody says "Amazing" a hundred times or "Incredible" in every other sentence. But people are not stupid. You can only be hoodwinked for so long.

When Apple fanboys start to look at Android, many feel cheated. They realise that Android has a far superior operating system and they have been ring-fenced by fanboy eulogizing, many of whom are just spouting stuff their heard their buddy say without looking for themselves.

We have reached a tipping point for Apple. Their share price already dropped on the announcement of the new Nexus prices. The city traders are not stupid, they can see what is happening. Apple is due a decline over the next 5 years as Google swamp the market with Android, with LG and particularly Samsung making huge gains in market share.

You read it here first.

Jon

Stale OS? debatable. I like it progression

Build quality? You're joking right.

Volume of apps maybe. Quality? Not a chance.

Innovates less? "Different' and 'new' is relatively easy. Doing something that's genuinely better is very hard. Jonathan Ive "

Apples Ecosystem is something nobody can touch. As long as their products improve from their previous versions I don't give a horses ass what Android do.

 

[ucfgrad93]

You read it here first.

Sorry to burst your bubble, but you are hardly the first to predict Apple's downfall. And like all of the others, you are sadly mistaken.

 

[Ledgem]

When Apple fanboys start to look at Android, many feel cheated. They realise that Android has a far superior operating system and they have been ring-fenced by fanboy eulogizing, many of whom are just spouting stuff their heard their buddy say without looking for themselves.

A far superior operating system? I'll admit that I have not used Android outside of floor models of phones and tablets, and it seems to get the job done for most people, but I have not seen anything that screams "superior" (let alone "far superior") over iOS. They're both good, as far as I'm concerned. What advantages does Android offer over iOS?

Here's how I see it. Apple has now established something that many people rely on, and they have set systems in place. Their hands are tied compared with back when everything was new and fresh. This is normal for companies: new developments will seem like refinements instead of revolutions. It makes little sense for a company to uproot everything and make major changes. It costs a lot and displaces customers.

Many of the people who hold Android up over iOS do so because Android is more customizable. I respect that. However, speaking for my own usage, I don't care. There was a time in my life when I used to love devoting free evenings and weekends to tinkering with my electronics, changing their appearance, and hacking various functionality. As of now, I don't have the time or desire for it. So what if your phone looks the same as my phone? It's a device to get work done, not a fashion accessory.

I take a similar approach to the people who complain that iOS' appearance is getting "stale" and that it "needs a new look." I welcome user interface changes that increase productivity, but to make a major change simply for the sake of having new visuals seems pretty silly.

I understand that not everyone is focused on their devices for productivity. Some buy them as fashion accessories, and others expect to have them for both fashion and productivity. I respect those differences, but I'm giving my opinion anyway.

 

[JonL12345]

I agree with Jonathan Ive. Just look at Google's new Photo Sphere and its new, different and genuinely better.

I hope Apple gets its act together because I fancy a iMac 27".

 

[dejo]

Their share price already dropped on the announcement of the new Nexus prices.

You certain that was the reason? I guess you can explain why AAPL is up nearly $4 today then, too.

 

[Gaelic2]

Congratulations Newbie, you got your 5 minutes of fame on this troll.

 

[jsw]

You certain that was the reason? I guess you can explain why AAPL is up nearly $4 today then, too.

Google didn't announce new Nexus prices today. Duh.

If Google would just announce new Nexus prices every day, Apple stock would be worthless in a few years. I can't fathom why they don't just do that.

 

[sentinelsx]

I doubt it is android that will "kill" apple. Despite increasing market share of android (which is not going up as high now) the idevices keep bringing the money in.

However, i can see MS mobile suite of win RT and windows phone combined with desktop and XBOX integration bring real pain in the future to Apple or even android. I am not terribly excited to use linux on my laptop or PC and this is where MS has a better chance, to allow my mobile device to link perfectly well with my heavy duty machine.

 

[snberk103]

I don't think you can compare Apple today with Apple of 10 years ago. Or if you are, you need to compare similar technology experiences - not similar technologies.

What I mean is this.... And initially I'm just talking traditional computers.

Ten years ago (more or less) computers, and people's experience with them, was a still evolving quickly. Now, computer technology has matured, or at least is quickly approaching that point. A decade ago it was easy to be seen as a technology leader in the computer field because Apple was often at the forefront of mass adoption of technologies that made the computer experience better. Apple also recognized that not every new technology actually made the experience better, and did a good job of generally backing those that were genuinely making our lives better.

Now, however, it's hard to imagine much more that can be done to make computer hardware better in a way to makes our lives easier. There are, of course, new technologies out there... but for the most part they don't really make things better - imho. There are some exceptions of course, and interestingly - Apple is working in those fields. Mobile systems are one key area, and note that Apple is leading the field (for the most part) in making smaller full functioning laptops. And also note that they are again leading the field in battery technologies that allow those systems to go longer and longer between charges.

But, for the most part, the hardware for computers is pretty mature. The software is far from mature... people are spending far too much time dealing with the OS. In a perfect world the OS should be transparent, and you spend all your time just being creative. I believe Apple is working towards that goal, and I will note that they have started going to an annual upgrade cycle for OS X. I think we will see many new technologies being introduced incrementally year after year until our OSes have matured to the same degree as the hardware.

Of course Apple is the leading company in pushing tablet technologies. I have no experience with smart phones, and this post is already too long...so I'll leave it here, for now.

 

[niuniu]

Ease of use of iOS devices and the beauty of the hardware will sell people into Mac OS at a rate that wasn't previously possible before Apple had mobile devices.

If anything, I think Apple's best days are yet to come with their emergence as a dominant force in computing.

Once those numbers go up, developers, including the massive gaming market will all be coding their new wares for Mac which will again give Apple a large push and new marketing tact.

 

[MonkeySee....]

Ease of use of iOS devices and the beauty of the hardware will sell people into Mac OS at a rate that wasn't previously possible before Apple had mobile devices.

If anything, I think Apple's best days are yet to come with their emergence as a dominant force in computing.

Once those numbers go up, developers, including the massive gaming market will all be coding their new wares for Mac which will again give Apple a large push and new marketing tact.

And when they put an app store on Apple TV etc.

 

[JonL12345]

@snberk103, I have to disagree with you on the hardware side. Yes, I understand where you are coming from, but for me a more accurate way of looking at things is that computers are more of a commodity, as opposed to hardware changes having matured.

Why do I take that stance? Graphine! It will revolutionise a lot of stuff. Its ultra light, super conductive and 200 times stronger than steel. It will help us built razor thin, almost weightless smartphones, tablets and so forth that run super fast due to their amazing properties. Watch this space!

@niuniu, more Android smartphones are sold than Apple smartphones, so I see an increase towards coding for the larger Android market.

 

[nuckinfutz]

Android won't be able to keep up based on the simple fact that we're talking platforms here and that means delivering a great ecosystem.

Apple has the undeniable lead now approaching 400 stores. Microsoft, a software company, has realized the power of retail and now is building stores.

Who's going replicate this outside of Apple or Microsoft on a wide scale? There's not going to be 300 Samsung or Google stores.


Jon

You speak of innovation.
You state that Android is far superior

You're a newb. No one knows you since many of use post more in a day than your sum total here. Are we really supposed to take your unsubstantiated opinion to heart?

Don't baby us! We can handle your amazing intellect and technical insight. Indulge us with your persuasive argument on where Apple's innovation and operating system is failing. We're all ears

 

[djshack]

All you need to do to remind yourself that Apple will survive is use Windows 8. Windows 8 will be Microsoft's biggest flop since Vista (or maybe ever), thus once again leading to computer users switching to OS X, which while more like iOS, is still a true desktop OS with one interface.

 

[snberk103]

@snberk103, I have to disagree with you on the hardware side. Yes, I understand where you are coming from, but for me a more accurate way of looking at things is that computers are more of a commodity, as opposed to hardware changes having matured.

Actually - I think you agree with me. To my mind the sign that computer hardware has matured (or is close to it) is that they have become commodities. Immature technologies don't become commodities, imo.

Why do I take that stance? Graphine! It will revolutionise a lot of stuff. Its ultra light, super conductive and 200 times stronger than steel. It will help us built razor thin, almost weightless smartphones, tablets and so forth that run super fast due to their amazing properties. Watch this space!

But how does that make things "better" for the everyday user? In a revolutionary sense, that is. Will making an iPhone only one quarter as thick really change how people use their phones? Not really. At this point the really big changes to the iPhone, imo, are going to be the ways it connects - and how much it does autonomously. It can't really get much smaller, simply because it become unusable.

Tablets are just getting started... no one really knows what is going to happen in this space... though I'm sure we'll hear back from the lucky guessers in a few years time.

My prediction is that phones will get simpler as tablets get more mature. Right now, imho, connecting with someone by phone is still too much work. Before I even pickup the phone, I have to decide whether to email, text, FB message, etc, leave a voice message, or call them. I need to make a decision before I even try to contact them about where they are and how best to connect. I don't believe having more options is better. I think what we'll see is a lot of the phone's functionality pushed to the tablets, and a phone will allow you to call, text, take pictures, and Siri will take care of getting you to where you want to be. But that's just my guess.

----------

...
@djshack, I believe that OS X will always be a minority operating system due to the high price of Apple products. Its market share will stay small.

I agree with you ... and I don't think that is necessarily a bad thing. Market share is not the same as success. And I will also note that you haven't actually said it is... so this is more to add to the general discussion.

 

[JonL12345]

@snberk103, when I say razor thin, I am, essentially saying that they can make them any thickness they like. Imagine a phone that is 10 times faster than the iPhone (a supercomputer in your pocket?) yet ways only 40 grams. For me, it will go in the opposite direction to your prediction. Just look at what is already happening. More features, more functionality. If anything, there will be improvements in how the software experience will increase in simplicity. Google is already trying to create their "knowledge engine". They want you to ask any question and they give a reply.

Part of the challenge is to make potentially complex applications extremely simple to use. Vast improvements will be on their way. Just look at a futuristic scifi movie for examples of how future technology will pan out. Sophisticated artificial intelligence rather than a Siri guess!

 

[misterkofa]

Apple is far from being doomed my friend. But I do enjoy other companies catch up and have products that are superior in some aspects. Not totally but there's things Android and Windows do a little better. At the end of the day though, competition drives innovation and I look forward to seeing all the players push ahead to win our hard earned cash.

I fear for the future of Apple. They were an innovative company with compelling design under Steve Jobs. However, we are now at a tipping point.

Steve jobs is no longer with Apple, they have a stale OS, their phones have now been matched in build quality (Nexus 4), the Android app store has caught up in volume of apps, they went backwards with maps and in my opinion, the wheels have started to fall off the Apple steamroller.

They have become a gigantic sloth that moves slower, innovates less and is milking their monopoly they created with clever product release events where everybody says "Amazing" a hundred times or "Incredible" in every other sentence. But people are not stupid. You can only be hoodwinked for so long.

When Apple fanboys start to look at Android, many feel cheated. They realise that Android has a far superior operating system and they have been ring-fenced by fanboy eulogizing, many of whom are just spouting stuff their heard their buddy say without looking for themselves.

We have reached a tipping point for Apple. Their share price already dropped on the announcement of the new Nexus prices. The city traders are not stupid, they can see what is happening. Apple is due a decline over the next 5 years as Google swamp the market with Android, with LG and particularly Samsung making huge gains in market share.

You read it here first.

Jon

 

[tjl3]

Their share price already dropped on the announcement of the new Nexus prices.

Blind or did you not notice GOOG is down 8% from a month ago and AAPL is down 9% in the same period...

@niuniu, more Android smartphones are sold than Apple smartphones, so I see an increase towards coding for the larger Android market.

According to Wikipedia (yes I just cited Wikipedia), only 25% of all Android devices run ICS and newer (as of 10/2/12). 75% of all Android users are on seemingly ancient hardware, and that doesn't even factor in those users who are on ancient hardware that have been given the opportunity to move to ICS.

Doesn't matter how many more users are on Android when at least 75% of them are running hardware that developers can't take advantage of.

I saw somewhere that reports that 90% of iOS users are on iOS 5 or newer. Now, that I understand that doesn't mean that 90% of iOS users are on iP4 or newer, but to a developer, that is much more appealing to design to a platform of which 90% of the user base has access to against 25% of the alternative.

 

[snberk103]

@snberk103, when I say razor thin, I am, essentially saying that they can make them any thickness they like. Imagine a phone that is 10 times faster than the iPhone (a supercomputer in your pocket?) yet ways only 40 grams. ....

But how does that make your life easier and better? Actually, the important question is.. How does it make the average person's life easier and better? What is the phone 'computing' that needs to be faster. I will accept that a 2x or 4x improvement may be noticeable (and that speed increase will be seen next year, most likely, in any case) ... but today's devices already spend 90% of their time either waiting for the user to do something, for for the data transfer to finish. Both of those bottlenecks will see no improvement if the device is 'faster'.

And how thin is too thin? Is the iPhone awkward to carry because it's too big? You still need a device that is big enough to carry a screen you can see and type on. As an example, take a piece of cardboard and cut it the same size as an iPhone. Spend a day pretending it is... hold it up to your ear, but it into a briefcase pocket or your pocket or however you carry it. Is this any better? Because if it isn't "much" better people aren't going to spend any extra money for something so thin and light. They don't need it.

Part of the challenge is to make potentially complex applications extremely simple to use. Vast improvements will be on their way. Just look at a futuristic scifi movie for examples of how future technology will pan out. Sophisticated artificial intelligence rather than a Siri guess!

I agree with you here... the big revolution that is coming is software. It's not that hardware can't get better, but as humans we need things to be physically big and heavy enough that we can manipulate them. But software... that is an area that I think is going to be turned upside down in the near future. And I will repeat something I said earlier.... note that Apple appears to have gone to an annual OS X upgrade cycle. I think they have decided that upgrading functionality incrementally, but on a steady and continuing basis, is better than revolutionary change every few years.

My marker for "the average user" is my wife. She got tired of having to relearn how to do things every couple of years. She uses her computers as tools... as a commodity tool ... and the 'improvements' were making her less productive while she relearned things. So she has banned me from upgrading her systems. I think Apple recognized the reluctance they were facing from the customer base they want to capture - the average person. So.... now we have annual incremental upgrades. Lets wait a few years and see if the schedule continues.