Apple will decline in the next 5 years

[andymac2210]

Read about half of Steve's bio now.

So much of him went into the company and every detail of every product that I can't see how Apple can continue without him.
Once jobs' vision and roadmap for products has been exhausted I see apple making a somewhat shallow decline into mediocrity.


I think in 10 years (or sooner) we'll be looking at a fractured company, an idiot will get power(someone like ballmer or scully) and the 'good' crowd will exodus in protest.
Meanwhile the suits, who think about short term profit and not long term goals will take over.
That's why HP, Dell, samsung and the others suck, they're playing catch up for short term profits with probably a 6 month to one year strategy.


I don't ever see apple going away, just becoming less relevant and 'diluted'.

 

[roadbloc]

Since no-one predicted Apple's incline in the past decade, I find it foolish to predict anything. After all, its the future any anything could happen. They could decline and go bust within a decade. But they could also be bigger than they've ever been. We just don't know.

 

[steve2112]

They're doomed, I tell you!!

DOOOOOOOOOOMED!!!!!!

 

[Stella]

I wouldn't be surprised if Apple became less popular in the next 5 years - if your at the top the only way you can go is down. With or without SJ.

Apple have had a great run over the past 8 years or so... at some point its rise is going to come to an end. Like the sun rises, Apple's popularity will decline - at some point, within the next 5 years or more. Happens to all businesses... peaks and troughs.

 

[*LTD*]

I wouldn't be surprised if Apple became less popular in the next 5 years - if your at the top the only way you can go is down.

Or even higher.

Apple is known for breaking barriers previously thought near-insurmountable.

http://techcrunch.com/2010/05/26/apple-microsoft-market-cap-2/

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...nkruptcy-to-become-most-valuable-company.html

There is no real limit on growth.

Apple is already big. Over the next ten years, they'll become far bigger than anyone could have imagined. I'd be far more worried about the state of Apple's competition. We've already seen the fate of the Nokias, Palms, Motorolas, and even HTCs of the industry.

 

[Stella]

Past success does not guarantee future success.

I can see what those links are by the URL ( in edit mode ) without needing to go looking at them. The past is the past, and not indicative of the future.

I'm not quite sure why you quote HTC, because they are doing very well.. profits soring, thanks to Android and giving what the consumer wants.

Or even higher.

Apple is known for breaking barriers previously thought near-insurmountable.

http://techcrunch.com/2010/05/26/apple-microsoft-market-cap-2/

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...nkruptcy-to-become-most-valuable-company.html

There is no real limit on growth.

Apple is already big. Over the next ten years, they'll become far bigger than anyone could have imagined. I'd be far more worried about the state of Apple's competition. We've already seen the fate of the Nokias, Palms, Motorolas, and even HTCs of the industry.

 

[*LTD*]

Like the sun rises, Apple's popularity will decline - at some point, within the next 5 years or more.

Great insurance policy: "at some point within the next 5 years or more." So if it happens 15-20 years from now you're covered.

I don't know if even Geico offers that kind of coverage.

Yes, no ****. We *know* at some point Apple will trend downward, decline, whatever. That's a given. The question is when. Based on what's going on right now, especially in light of what the iPad means to the market and how it's doing, that big decline scenario some of you keep harping about won't happen for quite a while.

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Past success does not guarantee future success.

I can see what those links are by the URL ( in edit mode ) without needing to go looking at them. The past is the past, and not indicative of the future.

Alright, but Apple isn't some shaky startup fresh out of the loans office.

Track records matter. Business models matter. There are ways to predict and approximate future growth. This is how we determine wise investments today that will pay off in future. We don't live under rocks. At least, some of us don't.

Apple's got their finger right on the pulse of consumers - to such a degree that the competition can barely manage it, they're so busy in their race to the bottom. It's been this way for around a decade, and the industry still remains rather astonished about it, jaw on the floor. Apple's found a recipe for growth that will easily yield plenty of returns for years. They have a ridiculous amount of depth, a ridiculous amount of money, and can pull the very best from the tech talent pool. The easy bet is to put your money on Apple. This is obvious to anyone.

 

[Stella]

Great insurance policy: "at some point within the next 5 years or more." So if it happens 15-20 years from now you're covered.

Sorry if you missed my point, but thats what I was conveying to the OP.

We don't love under rocks. At least, some of us don't.

You live under a rock. Trashing other company's technology even if its a success or innovative ( i.e., Kinetic ). Never a bad word to say about Apple.

Sony, Nokia etc and others were in Apple's position, popular with consumers, but then they lost it along the way... and then came a dip. All companies go through cycles, and Apple is not immune to this. It may be unthinkable to you, but to others, its the nature of the business cycle.

Anyway, replying to any comment of yours, is just feeding you. A game I'd rather not play, to be perfectly honest ( sorry, if this sounds hostile - it isn't meant to be - but its the best wording I can come up with at the moment )

 

[patrick0brien]

Predictions are flimsy at best.

Besides, Apple has been dead for years: linkypoo

 

[DingleButt]

It depends on what other companies do more so than what Apple does, in my opinion.
Apple has a knack for nice design of it's hardware and if they keep the bar higher than the other manufacturers in the consumer space, they will be alright. But if the other players catch up in design, Apple loses its biggest draw.

Apple needs to keep working their backroom manufacturing deals (which I find dirty, but it's business) and keep their techniques guarded.

I dont see many big business opportunities for Apple in its near future like the iPhone and iPad kind of was. Their TV will probably not be a huge hit.

So really, I see it as Apple needs to keep its iPhone/iPad/Macbook line going strong to not decline.

 

[Melrose]

I wouldn't be surprised if Apple became less popular in the next 5 years - if your at the top the only way you can go is down. With or without SJ.

Apple have had a great run over the past 8 years or so... at some point its rise is going to come to an end. Like the sun rises, Apple's popularity will decline - at some point, within the next 5 years or more. Happens to all businesses... peaks and troughs.

Michael Dell and a whole bunch of people didn't have much vision either. The company is in a very, very strong position to at least keep it steady for years to come.

 

[Stella]

Michael Dell and a whole bunch of people didn't have much vision either. The company is in a very, very strong position to at least keep it steady for years to come.

Your right, there's not much vision with Dell, just selling the same old stuff to consumers and businesses alike. There certainly is a difference between Dell vs Apple - Apple being far more creative.

I hope Apple do continue its popularity, especially on the desktop.

 

[Adamantoise]

Or even higher.

Apple is known for breaking barriers previously thought near-insurmountable.

http://techcrunch.com/2010/05/26/apple-microsoft-market-cap-2/

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...nkruptcy-to-become-most-valuable-company.html

There is no real limit on growth.

Apple is already big. Over the next ten years, they'll become far bigger than anyone could have imagined. I'd be far more worried about the state of Apple's competition. We've already seen the fate of the Nokias, Palms, Motorolas, and even HTCs of the industry.

At first I thought you were being sarcastic ... But then I noticed you were serious.

I think it' a sad day when people are this naive/delusional.

 

[entatlrg]

Past success does not guarantee future success.

I can see what those links are by the URL ( in edit mode ) without needing to go looking at them. The past is the past, and not indicative of the future.

I'm not quite sure why you quote HTC, because they are doing very well.. profits soring, thanks to Android and giving what the consumer wants.

That's a good one! I hope you're joking.

'What the consumer wants' and Android don't belong in the same sentence.

Android is what the 'techies' want so they have something to fiddle with. The consumer wants a phone and OS that just works, is simple to learn and use on a daily basis.

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At first I thought you were being sarcastic ... But then I noticed you were serious.

I think it' a sad day when people are this naive/delusional.

Facts are facts.

What Apple has done for the tech industry and end user is incredible. NO other company has come close, it looks like there's nothing on the horizon that's going to out do Apple, not yet anyway.

Why insult the poster? If we're so naive and delusional enlighten us with facts.

 

[nick9191]

A lot of companies are doing well that have never had SJ as their CEO.

As long as they keep innovating in the right areas, they will do fine. It's possible they could do even better, there are a lot of areas they have never expanded into because it didn't fit Steve's world view for one reason or another: Enterprise for one, a massive market. I'm not saying that they should definitely go into enterprise, but their biggest downfall would be trying to emulate Steve Jobs exactly rather get a bunch of awesome innovative people together to do their own thing. No one is ever going to emulate Steve Jobs.

That's why Tim Cook worries me. He's not a product guy like Steve. He might be the best COO in the world, but the companies that do well, have product centric guys running the business- Zuckerburg, Page & Schmidt, Gates.. And of course, Steve Jobs (not that Steve didn't have his own fair share of screw ups).

 

[Adamantoise]

Facts are facts.

What Apple has done for the tech industry and end user is incredible. NO other company has come close, it looks like there's nothing on the horizon that's going to out do Apple, not yet anyway.

Why insult the poster? If we're so naive and delusional enlighten us with facts.

I am not insulting the poster, I am only stating 'Facts'.

If you honestly believe any tech corporation, any at all, will continue to see exponential growth for 10 years, then you are either delusional, exaggerating, or don't know what "far bigger than anyone could have imagined" means.

Apple has done great things for themselves, but so has every other company before them (IBM, Sun, Netflix, Samsung, Microsoft, Google etc) ... At some point in time these companies all had the Market Capital momentum that Apple did ...

History is your friend since you seem to like facts, I advice you take a trip down memory lane.

I'm not saying Apple is going to fail, I'm just saying that their growth is going to slow down (heck it has already started, just search AAPL on google finance) and maintain a steady albeit gradual rate.

 

[Stella]

That's a good one! I hope you're joking.

'What the consumer wants' and Android don't belong in the same sentence.

Android is what the 'techies' want so they have something to fiddle with. The consumer wants a phone and OS that just works, is simple to learn and use on a daily basis.

If the consumer didn't like HTC phones, the consumer wouldn't buy them - they would opt for a different model of phone. This is what I mean by "giving what the consumer wants"..

Considering Android has around 50% of the smartphone market, non techies are absolutely using it.