So, further research has changed my opinion on this question drastically. Somewhere here on MacRumors, a poster stated that, for the first year, the use of TB was exclusive to Apple... if this were true, it would be natural to conclude that such an exclusivity arrangement would actually be very bad for the market given that peripheral manufacturers would have little incentive to produce TB peripherals in sufficient volume to benefit consumers (i.e. enough to create some serious competition leading to MSRP depression).
Well, it turns out that it's simply not true that there was any exclusivity b/t Intel and Apple on the TB port, which, in my view, makes Apple's early adoption visionary, not half baked. The technology should eventually become THE standard for peripherals, displacing USB for that title, but tech. companies were reluctant to pioneer the change because of inertia and cost... Apple took charge and now, nearly two years after adoption, PC manufacturers are finally following suit. I wouldn't expect real widespread TB adoption for another 2 years, and not a significant encroachment on USB dominance for at least another 2 years on top of that, but it would have been much longer if Apple hadn't gotten the ball rolling when it did.
And, no, I don't see a close comparison to FW because the capabilities of TB are so much more advanced that anything FW had to offer.
Links:
TB Not Mac Exclusive:
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2380954,00.asp
Erroneous Geek.com report:
http://www.geek.com/articles/chips/...until-2012-will-anyone-care-by-then-20110225/
July 2011 Sony Vaio review with "Light Peak", aka Thunderbolt:
http://www.engadget.com/2011/07/29/sony-vaio-z-review-2011/