Because of the amount of people I've seen on this forum trying to run a newer version of MacOS on unsupported Macs, I decided to do a quick analysis of whether or not Apple dropping support for a certain Mac model was justified, going back to 64-bit Mac models introduced in 2006.
I decided to set the threshold at which dropping support due to age would be acceptable at 9 years. Hardware of this age is becoming increasingly usable for basic tasks, and the interval at which many users upgrade their computer has become longer than it used to be. On top of that, the environmental benefit of being able to use older hardware for longer should be a source of pride for a company which claims to be environmentally-conscious. However, the burden of maintaining kexts and optimizing new versions of MacOS for the older hardware eventually exceeds the benefit it brings to the consumer, so it would be unreasonable to expect support to continue for a decade or more.
After the initial support period is up, security updates continue for another two years, though Apple tends to drop support with important apps like Xcode shortly after a new major version of MacOS is introduced. 11 years may seem like a long time to receive security updates, but it's not dissimilar from the two major competing platforms, Windows and Linux. Windows 7 will see almost 11 years of security updates, and that's assuming someone with 2009 hardware hasn't already updated to Windows 8 or 10. Current versions of Linux can likewise be run on almost any x86 PC or Mac from the past 13 years.
Below are the results of my analysis. TL;DR: MacOS support is usually dropped 1-2 years before it should be.
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Mac mini (Mid 2007)
MacBook (Mid 2007), MacBook (Late 2008), MacBook Air (Early 2008)
Logical Support Stoppage: OS X 10.9.5 (Mavericks)
Actual Support Stoppage: Mac OS X 10.7.5 (Lion) - 2 years short
Logical Reasons: Intel GMA graphics would likely result in subpar performance on Yosemite and later.
Actual Reasons: Apple chose to deprecate 32-bit kexts in OS X Mountain Lion and never released 64-bit versions for the GPUs in these Macs.
iMac (Late 2006), Mac Pro (Mid 2006), Mac Pro (Early 2007)
MacBook Pro (Late 2006)
Logical Support Stoppage: OS X 10.11.6 (El Capitan)
Actual Support Stoppage: Mac OS X 10.7.5 (Lion) - 4 years short
Logical Reasons: 32-bit EFI, old instruction set
Actual Reasons: Apple chose to deprecate 32-bit kexts in OS X Mountain Lion and never released 64-bit versions for the GPUs in these Macs.
iMac (Mid 2007)
MacBook Pro (Mid / Late 2007)
Logical Support Stoppage: OS X 10.11.6 (El Capitan)
Actual Support Stoppage: OS X 10.11.6 (El Capitan)
Logical Reasons: old instruction set, age (9 years)
Actual Reasons: old instruction set, age (9 years)
Mac mini (Early 2009), Mac mini (Late 2009), iMac (Mid 2008), iMac (Early 2009), iMac (Mid 2009), Mac Pro (Early 2008), Mac Pro (Early 2009)
MacBook (Aluminum Late 2008), MacBook (Early 2009), MacBook (Mid 2009), MacBook Air (Late 2008), MacBook Air (Mid 2009), MacBook Pro (Early 2008), MacBook Pro (Late 2008), MacBook Pro (Early 2009), MacBook Pro (Mid 2009)
Logical Support Stoppage: macOS 10.13.6 (High Sierra)
Actual Support Stoppage: OS X 10.11.6 (El Capitan) - 2 years short
Logical Reasons: age (9+ years)
Actual Reasons: age (7+ years)
Mac mini (Mid 2010), Mac mini (Mid 2011), iMac (Late 2009), iMac (Mid 2010), iMac (Mid 2011)
MacBook (Late 2009), MacBook (Mid 2010), MacBook Air (Late 2010), MacBook Air (Mid 2011), MacBook Pro (Mid 2010), MacBook Pro (Early 2011), MacBook Pro (Late 2011)
Logical Support Stoppage: macOS 10.14.6 (Mojave)
Actual Support Stoppage: macOS 10.13.6 (High Sierra) - 1 year short
Logical Reasons: outdated graphics (third-party Marzipan apps will expect Metal support)
Actual Reasons: Apple chose to deprecate OpenGL in MacOS Mojave, despite the fact there is nothing stopping the built-in Marzipan apps from working on OpenGL.
Mac Pro (Mid 2010), Mac Pro (Mid 2012)
Logical Support Stoppage: macOS 10.16.? (?)
Actual Support Stoppage: macOS 10.14.6 (Mojave) - 2 years short
Logical Reasons: old instruction set, age (9 years)
Actual Reasons: age (7 years)
I decided to set the threshold at which dropping support due to age would be acceptable at 9 years. Hardware of this age is becoming increasingly usable for basic tasks, and the interval at which many users upgrade their computer has become longer than it used to be. On top of that, the environmental benefit of being able to use older hardware for longer should be a source of pride for a company which claims to be environmentally-conscious. However, the burden of maintaining kexts and optimizing new versions of MacOS for the older hardware eventually exceeds the benefit it brings to the consumer, so it would be unreasonable to expect support to continue for a decade or more.
After the initial support period is up, security updates continue for another two years, though Apple tends to drop support with important apps like Xcode shortly after a new major version of MacOS is introduced. 11 years may seem like a long time to receive security updates, but it's not dissimilar from the two major competing platforms, Windows and Linux. Windows 7 will see almost 11 years of security updates, and that's assuming someone with 2009 hardware hasn't already updated to Windows 8 or 10. Current versions of Linux can likewise be run on almost any x86 PC or Mac from the past 13 years.
Below are the results of my analysis. TL;DR: MacOS support is usually dropped 1-2 years before it should be.
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Mac mini (Mid 2007)
MacBook (Mid 2007), MacBook (Late 2008), MacBook Air (Early 2008)
Logical Support Stoppage: OS X 10.9.5 (Mavericks)
Actual Support Stoppage: Mac OS X 10.7.5 (Lion) - 2 years short
Logical Reasons: Intel GMA graphics would likely result in subpar performance on Yosemite and later.
Actual Reasons: Apple chose to deprecate 32-bit kexts in OS X Mountain Lion and never released 64-bit versions for the GPUs in these Macs.
iMac (Late 2006), Mac Pro (Mid 2006), Mac Pro (Early 2007)
MacBook Pro (Late 2006)
Logical Support Stoppage: OS X 10.11.6 (El Capitan)
Actual Support Stoppage: Mac OS X 10.7.5 (Lion) - 4 years short
Logical Reasons: 32-bit EFI, old instruction set
Actual Reasons: Apple chose to deprecate 32-bit kexts in OS X Mountain Lion and never released 64-bit versions for the GPUs in these Macs.
iMac (Mid 2007)
MacBook Pro (Mid / Late 2007)
Logical Support Stoppage: OS X 10.11.6 (El Capitan)
Actual Support Stoppage: OS X 10.11.6 (El Capitan)
Logical Reasons: old instruction set, age (9 years)
Actual Reasons: old instruction set, age (9 years)
Mac mini (Early 2009), Mac mini (Late 2009), iMac (Mid 2008), iMac (Early 2009), iMac (Mid 2009), Mac Pro (Early 2008), Mac Pro (Early 2009)
MacBook (Aluminum Late 2008), MacBook (Early 2009), MacBook (Mid 2009), MacBook Air (Late 2008), MacBook Air (Mid 2009), MacBook Pro (Early 2008), MacBook Pro (Late 2008), MacBook Pro (Early 2009), MacBook Pro (Mid 2009)
Logical Support Stoppage: macOS 10.13.6 (High Sierra)
Actual Support Stoppage: OS X 10.11.6 (El Capitan) - 2 years short
Logical Reasons: age (9+ years)
Actual Reasons: age (7+ years)
Mac mini (Mid 2010), Mac mini (Mid 2011), iMac (Late 2009), iMac (Mid 2010), iMac (Mid 2011)
MacBook (Late 2009), MacBook (Mid 2010), MacBook Air (Late 2010), MacBook Air (Mid 2011), MacBook Pro (Mid 2010), MacBook Pro (Early 2011), MacBook Pro (Late 2011)
Logical Support Stoppage: macOS 10.14.6 (Mojave)
Actual Support Stoppage: macOS 10.13.6 (High Sierra) - 1 year short
Logical Reasons: outdated graphics (third-party Marzipan apps will expect Metal support)
Actual Reasons: Apple chose to deprecate OpenGL in MacOS Mojave, despite the fact there is nothing stopping the built-in Marzipan apps from working on OpenGL.
Mac Pro (Mid 2010), Mac Pro (Mid 2012)
Logical Support Stoppage: macOS 10.16.? (?)
Actual Support Stoppage: macOS 10.14.6 (Mojave) - 2 years short
Logical Reasons: old instruction set, age (9 years)
Actual Reasons: age (7 years)
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