Article: Olive: Beware the euphoria, Apple may have peaked

[Stella]

"Investors are in a swoon over Apple Inc., which late last month eclipsed Microsoft Corp. as the world’s most valuable tech company. But should you be? Probably not."


http://www.thestar.com/business/com...eware-the-euphoria-apple-may-have-peaked?bn=1

 

[rdowns]

Rubbish article.

 

[maflynn]

The article is rubbish, at least the details are. Though I think the premise of apple peaking has some traction.

While the iPad is wildly popular, beyond anyone's estimation and their phones are very popular as legions of apple fans wait breathlessly for Monday. I do think they have some "storms" on the horizon.

Disagree or not, one thing is for sure, the government is taking a very close eye on how apple does business. This will distract the executives of apple to some degree. Where they may have been more bold in years past on some decisions, they may be hesitant. Microsoft and IBM are great examples of how government investigations impacted their innovation for a time.

Then there's android, like it or hate it, Google's approach to android (shotgun) many phones, many carriers, will only almost certainly mean they will surpass apple in units being used.

Then there's the burgeoning swelling of anti-apple sentiment. Yeah there were always been apple haters, but now its becoming "cool" to hate them. Apple's big brother approach to pulling apps and denying apps isn't helping that any either.

over all apple is creating great products and are firing on all cylinders but no one stays on top forever.

 

[Stella]

I think people have totally missed the point of the article:

Apple, if it loses consumer interest will fall fast. Apple have no dependencies, where as microsoft do - businesses can't just dump microsoft over night.. consumers can dump apple overnight without a problem.

Apple really don't have a serious footing in the business world and that is it's weakness. Apple don't have a stable income - its income is all consumer based. When consumers get fed up, they'll drop a product quick.

Sure, its nice that Apple is doing so well, but its built on quick sand. microsoft have a cash cow in the business world that won't disappear overnight. Apple must get itself established in the same way as microsoft has - business.

Apple need to keep on innovating, but that won't last forever.. they'll lose their edge at some point which has happened to all companies. They go stale and then finding they have to re-energize themselves. Sony, Nintendo, microsoft - all have gone through their peaks, troffs and find themselves 'in trouble' before innovating again.

 

[maflynn]

Apple, if it loses consumer interest will fall fast.

You can say that for 99% of the retail companies in the world. If McDonalds loses consumer interest they will fail, so will BestBuy, so will HP, so will Dell, etc etc.

 

[Stella]

You can say that for 99% of the retail companies in the world. If McDonalds loses consumer interest they will fail, so will BestBuy, so will HP, so will Dell, etc etc.

HP and Dell are not only consumer focused - they sell a ton of hardware / services / software ( HP ) to businesses.

 

[mysterytramp]

Apple has been consumer-focused for over 30 years now. To think that the focus is somehow going to lead to its downfall is stretching things. Plus, as much as the writer rails against the iPad and the iPhone, he's noticeably silent on the iPod. Let's say the bottom drops out on Apple's mobile phone and tablet. iPods and iTunes still make Apple a profitable company.

And that's a funny passage about the iPhone OS. He knocks Apple for not licensing it, citing Microsoft and Windows. His segue completely misses how Windows is a total non-entity in the mobile market. And he knocks the iPhone without even a passing mention that at least some of the phone's issues are because of AT&T.

Now, would I buy Apple stock? No. Historic highs are typically lousy times to buy. If I had lots of money lying around, a better bet would be Ford or wait till GM returns to the stock market. Or hell, put it into a CD. Money in Apple now probably means a loss in a year.

mt

 

[thejadedmonkey]

You can say that for 99% of the retail companies in the world. If McDonalds loses consumer interest they will fail, so will BestBuy, so will HP, so will Dell, etc etc.

None of those brands are premium brands though. You should instead be comparing Apple to the likes of Coach or Gouchi. And if they were to suddenly go out of style, then they would suddenly have a very large problem. And since most of Apple's money isn't cash, but rather stock, if their stock tanks, they tank too.

 

[Stella]

Let's say the bottom drops out on Apple's mobile phone and tablet. iPods and iTunes still make Apple a profitable company.

Which means Apple's profits will fall - the iPhone profits must add up to a chunk of change, and therefore their stock will too. End result - the author is correct.

If the iPhone and tablet ( will be ) have been a halo effect for consumers buying Apple computers has as been suggested, then sales of Apple hardware will also fall, which means even less profit, and therefore more stock price drop. Again, should this happen - end result - the author is correct.

I'm wondering, should the bottom fall out of the iPhone, this would surely have a large affect on the AppStore? It would basically become a GameStore - the Touch being geared / marketed towards games rather than other apps. A whole slew of software would become less viable on Touch due to not having the hardware ( i.e., GPS , Cellular ) - i.e., location based software et al.

 

[mysterytramp]

... should this happen ... should the bottom ...

And the likelihood of this happening is ... near zero. Again, this is predicated on Apple sticking with AT&T indefinitely. Does anyone expect that happen?

BTW, I wouldn't worry too greatly about a non-iPhone App Store. Suppose it does happen -- gaming is one segment, but only one. There are lots of doodads for niche markets that are keeping their developers financially happy. You should see private pilots playing with their iPod Touches.

mt

 

[Stella]

And the likelihood of this happening is ... near zero. Again, this is predicated on Apple sticking with AT&T indefinitely. Does anyone expect that happen?

Yes. All consumer products die ( discounting food - i.e., mars bars, coke). The original aka Classic ) of iPods is nearly ending its life. The product evolved into the Touch. The iPhone will either die due to lack of performance or evolve into another product. The iPhone will die, you can be sure of that due to the product life cycle.

BTW, I wouldn't worry too greatly about a non-iPhone App Store. Suppose it does happen -- gaming is one segment, but only one. There are lots of doodads for niche markets that are keeping their developers financially happy. You should see private pilots playing with their iPod Touches.

Your pretty much describing Apple computer hardware of only a few years ago - a niche market.

Fortunately, [Apple] computers and OSX are now growing into a range that is being taken more seriously by consumers / business ( a little more ) and 3rd party vendors alike. Unfortunately, some on these forums, for bizarre paranoid reasons, where complaining because Google decided to replace windows with OSX, in part.

 

[*LTD*]

Apple, if it loses consumer interest will fall fast.

Any day now.

ROFL.

Keep dreaming.

 

[roadbloc]

Any day now.
ROFL.
Keep dreaming.

Agreed. I do not see Apple loosing consumer interest any time soon. My friend has just bought an iPad and loves it, and I know many friends who will follow suit (and many who won't.)

So whats the point in the article exactly?