iPhone X At what point will the number of X style phones in active use surpass the number of 6/6S/7/8

[KOTN91]

Clearly the X style design is the future, and going forward Apple is probably only going to release iPhones with this design

However, most people still use the 6/6S/7/8 which is currently very much standard

When do you think the X style will become standard, that is, iPhones of that design having more users than that of the 6/6S/7/8, and the new style iPhones being more common than the legacy design

By X style I’m referring to the X and any iPhones Apple releases in the future with a similar design

 

[velocityg4]

Many people use their iPhones for at least three years. Most of which will get passed on to family members or sold to the second hand market.

As the vast majority sold in 2018 will still be iPhones 7 and 8 plus all the prior years of sales. Even if Apples 2019 models all feature a notch. They'll still sell the 8 for at least another year. I'd expect worldwide for there to be more non-notch iPhones in use than notched iPhones in 2021.

 

[JPack]

About 2019-2020.

We have plenty of historical data related to iPhone adoption rates. This popular graph from Newzoo shows the iPhone 7 and 6s series representing 50% of users back in 2017. Those were only 1-2 year old phones.

With a trio of notched iPhones coming this September hitting various price points, you can expect a similar adoption pattern.

 

[44267547]

Even living in a populated city as I do, I still don’t see the iPhone X all that much, even though it has become more apparent now that we are in nine months into the launch. I think the current price point is a hindrance because of this, in addition; because iPhone users traditionally find that their current model does everything they *need* it to where they don’t specifically desire to upgrade unless their phone requires it due to hardware issues (Or it has become progressively slower) or the consumer carrier plan allows for the upgrade.

I think 2018 will actually be a bigger year for the iPhone X, more specifically that has a reduced price point That is rumored, which inherently will also be more attractive, similarly to the entry level 6.1 LCD iPhone to adopt face ID with a price point around $750.

 

[NoBoMac]

I'd guess about 2020-2021, to account for initial release, holiday/gift purchases.

It will be interesting to see how this all shakes out.

Yes, the rumored price drop in the X should bump up sales, but could see X+ and 6.1" cannibalizing each other. As per graph above, the Plus models do not sell as many units as non-Plus, wonder if price of X+ might drive people away, 6.1" maybe being too big even though price might be good, or due to price will go for 6.1" as it hits a sweet spot for those that want a big phone but without the price hit the X+ will be.

It's those of us that like 8/X sized and smaller that are a bit in a bind, imo.

Luckily, I upgrade phones every three years, so, do not have to "worry" about the 2018 phones, but, none of them really are that compelling to me. Price will probably be right for 6.1", just don't like the extra width/height that it will have (will need to play with one when it comes out to confirm/deny my bias). X feels pretty much like the 8, just that OLED is not important to me and having to pay the price for that to get a phone size I like is a turnoff. And X+ is a no-go.

 

[Falhófnir]

I'd imagine it will take a while for them to build up and the older ones to work their way out of service, but I'd say if the 6.1" cheaper model does well over 2018-19, and it's successor continues doing well into 2019-2020 alongside the more expensive models then by mid-late 2020 we might see the tipping point.