I've never gotten more than about eighteen months out of any ballhead under $220. (I had a $190 Gitzo that lasted 18 months- that's the record for me.)
I've also had very bad luck with Bogen QR plates torquing on lenses and bodies.
The cheapest ballhead I like is the Acratech which comes in around $240 without the QR plates- as a bonus it's the easiest to clean ballhead out there. It's about $270 with the QR clamp and a plate is about $40.
I've never lost a lens to a ballhead failing, but I think I've come too close for comfort three or four times. I like the left side knob so the trigger finger isn't messing with the tension.
The Kirk BH-3 is a better deal at $255 with the QR clamp and a plate, and is very high quality if you don't need the ruggedness of a BH-1 (15lbs vs 50lbs.) If you shoot in the cold, the large knobs are great for adjustments with gloves on. If you see a 300/2.8 or 400/3.5 in your future, then the BH-3 is too small.
There are some Asian knock-offs that may be about as good, but I'm with Thom Hogan on the whole "You're going to spend the money, you can do it all at once and get off cheaper, or you can do it year over year and spend more" thing.
http://www.bythom.com/support.htm
I think prices allow you to come down some from his price ranges, but only to about $600-700 total if you want really stable support without a lot of risk.