Blackberry Q1 - big miss

[Peterg2]

Not that I was terribly surprised, as I felt the huge short interest was for valid reasons. Goes in the face of all the unabashed boosterism, especially from our (mine) feeble Canadian business press:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/28/us-blackberry-results-idUSBRE95R0EE20130628

The stock is, as of writing, down by some 24%. On Crackberry some people must be hysterical.

 

[0dev]

Revenue increased and device sales increased. I imagine the loss is likely because the were delays in getting BB10 products to the US market, especially the Q10 which is pretty much their flagship device. Plus they just opened that massive store in the Dubai Mall which can't be cheap. In fact since revenue did increase from last quarter, and last quarter saw them making a profit, high costs probably had a bigger impact than anything else, despite what OP's article says.

The demand for the devices is clearly there though as the sales numbers show. I expect another quarter with the full range of the Z10, Q10, and Q5 on the market will put the company back in the black.

http://crackberry.com/press-release-blackberry-reports-q1-2014-earnings

Revenue $3.1 billion, up 15% sequentially from the previous quarter

North America revenue grows sequentially 30%, APAC revenue grows 35%, EMEA revenue grows 9%

Shipments of 6.8 million smartphones, up 13% sequentially from the previous quarter

 

[0dev]

If you actually look into it and study the quarterly report, the only reason they made a loss is because of Venezuelan currency issues. Not bad sales, but a bad currency market in one of their big markets. If it wasn't for that they'd have made a small profit like the previous quarter.

Since next quarter this issue will still exist, they probably won't fully recover, but with QWERTY BB10 devices now on the market they'll likely see better sales to help make up for it until the currency issues are resolved.

 

[MRU]

I think what has dissopointed the market is this

BlackBerry got off to a roaring start with with the Z10, which shipped a million devices in its first three weeks on the market and led many to predict there'd be at least 3 million shipped this quarter (the first full quarter of Z10 availability). That turned out not to be the case, as the company said during an earnings call for Q1 2014 that it managed to get just 2.7 million BlackBerry 10 OS handsets out the door, despite the Q10 having joined the Z10 on shelves for a good part of that period. Those figures make up just 40 percent of its handset numbers, meaning most of the 6.8 million phones it shipped consisted of cheaper last-gen products.

So only 2.7 million of those shipped were BB10 devices.

 

[sviato]

The loss of 4 million subscribers likely has shareholders worried

 

[0dev]

I think what has dissopointed the market is this

So only 2.7 million of those shipped were BB10 devices.

That's because the Q10 only just came out last month and the Q5 only just came out a few days ago and most BlackBerry customers find the keyboards to be a big selling point. TBH I think it was a stupid decision for BlackBerry to release the Z10 before the Q10 in the first place.

If I understand the Bloomberg article correctly...

Venezuela’s government has limited access to dollars with currency controls over the past decade, making it difficult for companies with foreign headquarters to repatriate cash at the official exchange rate. The country has devalued its currency five times over the past nine years, most recently when it weakened the exchange rate by 32 percent to 6.3 bolivars per dollar on Feb. 8.

Procter & Gamble Co. found itself facing as much as $275 million in aftertax charges from the February devaluation, the Cincinnati-based company said that month.

...The issue is with currency controls rather than an actual loss and it affects all international companies doing business in the country.

This is not nearly the kind of doom and gloom news certain publications are making it out to be.

 

[mikeo007]

I think what has dissopointed the market is this



So only 2.7 million of those shipped were BB10 devices.

I think they were disappointed that even the most pessimistic targets were missed. I'm definitely disappointed that I bet on the wrong horse, but I never expected it to be this bad. Poor sales of flagship BB10 devices is definitely the root of most of my fears though. That and Heins' response to the question of whether or not Blackberry will continue to make phones...yikes.

 

[0dev]

I think they were disappointed that even the most pessimistic targets were missed. I'm definitely disappointed that I bet on the wrong horse, but I never expected it to be this bad. Poor sales of flagship BB10 devices is definitely the root of most of my fears though. That and Heins' response to the question of whether or not Blackberry will continue to make phones...yikes.

What did he say about continuing to make phones? Can't find any recent statements on that matter from googling.

 

[0dev]

CrackBerry's view of the results.

TL;DR: We can't make true judgements of BB10's performance until we give the Q10 and Q5 some time on the market, but BB needs to rush with the transition to BB10 and drop the old BB OS this year.

I'm inclined to agree that the big issue is they took so long to produce QWERTY BB10 phones. It reminds me a bit of Stark Industries: "they're a weapons company that doesn't make weapons!" That's just the same as BlackBerry not making a QWERTY smartphone. As I said, it was a stupid decision to release the Z10 before the Q10.

Since these results do very little to take the Q10 into account and do nothing to take the Q5 into account, we'll have to see how well they're doing next quarter to make a true assessment of BB10's performance.

 

[mikeo007]

What did he say about continuing to make phones? Can't find any recent statements on that matter from googling.

Wait for the transcripts of the Q and A. His tone has definitely changed. The question was akin to "will BB get out of the phone business and become service only". Heins previous responses to this type of question were in line with "phones are our core business, of course we'll keep making them". This time, the response was a very muted "we'll see what the future brings, it's too early to tell". Major ouch.

----------

CrackBerry's view of the results.

TL;DR: We can't make true judgements of BB10's performance until we give the Q10 and Q5 some time on the market, but BB needs to rush with the transition to BB10 and drop the old BB OS this year.

I'm inclined to agree that the big issue is they took so long to produce QWERTY BB10 phones. It reminds me a bit of Stark Industries: "they're a weapons company that doesn't make weapons!" That's just the same as BlackBerry not making a QWERTY smartphone. As I said, it was a stupid decision to release the Z10 before the Q10.

Since these results do very little to take the Q10 into account and do nothing to take the Q5 into account, we'll have to see how well they're doing next quarter to make a true assessment of BB10's performance.

The exact same story as the previous quarter's results. The tale was Q1 will be the important one because we'll see all the Z10 sales recognized. Now, apparently Q2 is the important quarter? I assume that if Q2 results are equally dismal, it will be because we need to wait until Q3 for the results of the cheap qwerty phone to be recognized. Then, when Q3 results bomb, it will be because the Aristo is on everyone's mind and isn't fully realized in these results.

Sorry, but you folks are only lying to yourselves. I'm still reeling from the total collapse that's happening, but now I'm starting to understand some of the signals that have been visible for a while now.

 

[0dev]

Wait for the transcripts of the Q and A. His tone has definitely changed. The question was akin to "will BB get out of the phone business and become service only". Heins previous responses to this type of question were in line with "phones are our core business, of course we'll keep making them". This time, the response was a very muted "we'll see what the future brings, it's too early to tell". Major ouch.

Not good if true.

The exact same story as the previous quarter's results. The tale was Q1 will be the important one because we'll see all the Z10 sales recognized. Now, apparently Q2 is the important quarter? I assume that if Q2 results are equally dismal, it will be because we need to wait until Q3 for the results of the cheap qwerty phone to be recognized. Then, when Q3 results bomb, it will be because the Aristo is on everyone's mind and isn't fully realized in these results.

Sorry, but you folks are only lying to yourselves. I'm still reeling from the total collapse that's happening, but now I'm starting to understand some of the signals that have been visible for a while now.

My personal view has always been that launching the Z10 before the Q10 was a big mistake. Physical keyboards are BlackBerry's biggest differentiator. So, yes, the quarter in which the two QWERTY phones are launched is indeed the important one. BlackBerry's audience wants those keyboards.

If the next quarter fails then the reaction will obviously depend on why it failed. If it's because the Venezuelan government is holding their money, well that's not any reflection on BlackBerry's business or products. If it fails because they're not selling any phones then obviously we have a big problem. But we have to wait and see.

Bear in mind that the loss is not caused by low sales - sales and revenue both increased this quarter. Z10 sales were disappointing compared to the predictions but like I said, it's a BlackBerry without a physical keyboard. The big sellers will be the Q10 and Q5 and they've both just hit the market, so we must wait and see how they perform.

Put it this way: judging BlackBerry's performance when it's not selling new QWERTY phones is like judging Apple's performance without the iPhones and iPads.