Chance that Apple will release M2 Pro/Max next summer?

[senttoschool]

If reports were true that the Macbook Pros were delayed from a June/July release to late October, could we see a new MBP 14/16" in the summer of 2022 with the M2 Pro/Max? Reports suggested that the delay was caused by the display and component shortage, not the SoC.

Perhaps Apple's true intention was always to release new A series SoC in September, then M series SoCs in the summer. This would make sense from a technical standpoint as bigger SoCs are more complicated to design and manufacture so they take more time.

Once Apple does a refresh next summer, they will keep to this schedule.

 

[phillytim]

All of us can only speculate, based upon the rumors we've heard. That being said ...

The rumor mill seems hot about expecting a revised MacBook Air, based upon the M2, during the early part of 2022.

It's anyone's guess after that, for a M2-series MacBook Pro.

 

[Gnattu]

I doubt if the supply chain could be ready next summer, maybe we could see them later next year. Summer just looks too early to me.

 

[Wando64]

I’d say zero chance of a revised MBP within a year.
Maybe a processor for the Mac Pro, but I wouldn’t bet a penny of my money.

 

[JohnnyGo]

I’d say zero chance of a revised MBP within a year.
Maybe a processor for the Mac Pro, but I wouldn’t bet a penny of my money.

I’m on the same boat. No reason to update MBPs every year. It seems to reason that if they took close to 1 year between M1 and the new SOCs, they will do the same after the M2.

I expect new MBPs in 2023, probably at WWDC. Timing wise it will coincide with the smaller node from TSMC (3nm).

The M1 PRO / MAX SOCs seem like a major effort/development and we know the iPad and MacBook Air sell at much larger quantities. It’s only rational that Apple will try to extend the life of this SOC to get a proper return.

 

[Gherkin]

All of us can only speculate, based upon the rumors we've heard. That being said ...

The rumor mill seems hot about expecting a revised MacBook Air, based upon the M2, during the early part of 2022.

It's anyone's guess after that, for a M2-series MacBook Pro.

The rumors for the new MBA are saying mid to late 2022.

 

[dugbug]

• zero on mb pros.
• 100% on air with m2.
• 50% on imac 27" m2 pro/max (27" or 30" or whatever the big size is).
• 50% on mac mini with m2 and mac mini pro with m2 pro/max

Im holding out for the bigger imac

 

[matrix07]

Next year will be the upgrade for big screen iMac, Mac Pro, MacBook Air and possibly mac mini Pro.

 

[Paratriplel]

Didn’t they get a lot of ”hate” Whenever they’ve released an update “close” to other release or not hate bur rather hot emotions/critics from people feeling frustration and fooled by Apple due to their brand new a Mac or iPad now not being the latest anymore.
Having been one of the people (I wasn’t angry and I wasn’t even really paying attention) in the example of the ones who bought the iPad 3 when iPad 4 came with a lot of great updates and iPad 3 with it’s retina screen that now has been replaced, as I said I wasn’t paying attention but I remember I was underwhelmed with my new iPad even the sheer few weeks and I wasn’t able find a good use case for it at first but when I started doing so a new OS had came out and my iPad had become extremely slow and laggy. I then realized iPad 5 was about to come out in less than 6 months or something and iPad 4 had been out for a long time.
So how is this relevant? Well maybe it isn’t, so back to the topic.
No but really, lately Apple seems to have changed their (hmm.. let’s call it image) “image” drastically, instead of their usual: leading the way, giving/showing the customers what they need and want before the customers know it themselves, innovating with confidence and so forth and instead Apple has started to try to fulfill about every single customers wish. I believe it’s just the glowing Apple logo (haha I’ve had to check several times that I just didn’t miss it and actually I went and checked once again as I‘m writing this, just to be entirely sure) to go back on to have brought back every single complaints from the 2016-era of MacBook Pro’s.
So maybe with this new “image” of Apple Rudy might be scared to upset customers by bringing out a new chip too soon. It feels so silly to write rbis, slightly pathetic even but I actually feel it could a new direction for Apple to reinvent itself, they must be so bored just seeing the money roll in with success after success and breaking record after record.

I’m not entirely sure what I think about it though. Sure though I like it quite a lot but just don’t go soft on us from here on but it’s a nice attribute to be able to admit to when you’ve been be wrong.

 

[UBS28]

Q3 2022, because the iPhone has the highest priority regarding the A15.

When the iPhone switches to A16, Mac gets the leftover A15 cores.

It is quite telling that Apple decided to keep using the A14 for the M1 Pro and M1 Max. It shows that all A15 capacity goes to the iPhone.

 

[JohnnyGo]

• zero on mb pros.
• 100% on air with m2.
• 50% on imac 27" m2 pro/max (27" or 30" or whatever the big size is).
• 50% on mac mini with m2 and mac mini pro with m2 pro/max

Im holding out for the bigger imac

I think there’s 100% chance of Mac Mini with Pro/Max SOCs. Why wouldn’t apple have such a product?

The big question is what kind of SOC will apple use in the new Mac Pro… dual/quad SOCs ? A monster Max version ?

At this point, it’s clear that Apple want go for third party GPUs. Unified memory dictates an internal/integrated approach for GPUs

 

[dugbug]

I think there’s 100% chance of Mac Mini with Pro/Max SOCs. Why wouldn’t apple have such a product?

the question was will they be released by summer

 

[dasjati]

I wouldn't be surprised to see the MacBook Pros on a similar cycle as the iPad Pros. Basically every 18 months. So if these models were indeed supposed to premiere at WWDC, then maybe we will see the next iteration in a year. Or maybe everything got postponed. The supply chain crisis is not over.

 

[Zdigital2015]

Q3 2022, because the iPhone has the highest priority regarding the A15.

When the iPhone switches to A16, Mac gets the leftover A15 cores.

It is quite telling that Apple decided to keep using the A14 for the M1 Pro and M1 Max. It shows that all A15 capacity goes to the iPhone.

When the Mac makes up 45% of Apple’s quarterly revenue, they’ll get higher priority on the SoC front.
It may also be that the iPhone SoC is as much a “proof of concept” as they are the basis for the Mac SoC which takes the concept and simply scales up.

 

[deconstruct60]

If reports were true that the Macbook Pros were delayed from a June/July release to late October, could we see a new MBP 14/16" in the summer of 2022 with the M2 Pro/Max? Reports suggested that the delay was caused by the display and component shortage, not the SoC.

Perhaps Apple's true intention was always to release new A series SoC in September, then M series SoCs in the summer. This would make sense from a technical standpoint as bigger SoCs are more complicated to design and manufacture so they take more time.

Once Apple does a refresh next summer, they will keep to this schedule.

The rumors of the M2 MBA mid 2022 point otherwise. There would be some M-series in the summer, but both M2 and M2 Pro/Max piled on top of. trying to ramp the A16 is pretty doubtful. Even more so if on the same exact fab process. One of those maybe. Both probably not (especially with the wafer start limitations that are unlikely to go away before 2023 ).

The larger the die the more unlikely it would be on a 12 month cadence. ( bigger wins with waiting for the more substantive process shrinks that happen more on a 18 month cadence than a 12 month one. ). The A15 is just bigger (and more expensive for Apple to make), They will suck up that "loss" on a relatively small chip. On a 4x bigger chip that is a bigger loss to soak up. Apple isn't desperately behind the perfomance curve here so there is little reason to throw money away to meet an entirely arbitrary date.

On the iPhone, Apple has dung themselves an every September hole. It makes about zero sense to drag the Macs into another one also. That isn't going to help them (or the Mac) longer term.

P.S. The A16 and M2 probably will have to sync up with TSMC N4 because N3 is going to arrive "too late" for the fixed september release timeline. That could allow a M3 Pro/Max to sync up with TSMC N3 process before the other ones do. (that the Pro/Max could just skip N4 (M2) altogether. ) There would be upsides to doing that if Apple wanted to.

 

[l0stl0rd]

I am guessing no and the M2 Pro / Max goes in the bigger iMac.

 

[darngooddesign]

M2 in 2022, M2 Pro/Max in 2023

 

[JohnnyGo]

the question was will they be released by summer

I would guess yes. 80% probability

 

[HQNYC]

TSMC's 3nm has hit a snag so I don't think there will be any upgrades.

The 2022 iPhone A16 chip will continue to run on 5nm instead of the expected 3nm. If there is a M2 Pro or Max, expect a small increase in performance and battery because the chip is the same size. (Although GPU cores could be refined even further.)

I expect the real upgrade to use an enhanced 3nm in 2023 or 2024. TSMC's 2nm is coming out in 2025, but to be honest, no one knows if there's going to be any delays or not.

 

[senttoschool]

I wouldn't be surprised to see the MacBook Pros on a similar cycle as the iPad Pros. Basically every 18 months. So if these models were indeed supposed to premiere at WWDC, then maybe we will see the next iteration in a year. Or maybe everything got postponed. The supply chain crisis is not over.

I would love to see Apple do a 12-month release cycle instead of 18.

Macs are leading the industry in performance/watt but overall performance still goes to PCs. I'd like Apple to completely own the performance crown top to bottom like they do for phones, tablets, and watches.

This is one way to capture laptop/desktop marketshare quickly.

Also, AMD, Intel, Nvidia are much better competitors than Qualcomm and Samsung in chip design and no doubt the M series SoCs lit a fire on their ass.

 

[kiranmk2]

It seems clear that the chips would be available every 12 months if Apple wanted to do yearly updates. I can see the following line up possible with Apple deciding whether a device needs updating or not in a given year:

iPhone SE - current A chip (6 months after main iPhones)
iPhone - current A chip
iPhone Pro - current A pro chip (i.e. extra GPU cores)

iPad - previous A chip
iPad Air - current A chip
iPad Pro - current M chip

MacBook Air - current M chip
MacBook Pro - current M pro/max chip

iMac - current M chip
iMac Pro - current M pro/max chip

Mac Pro - current M pro/max chip (multiple)

 

[Taz Mangus]

I think Apple will introduce one more M1 chip, the M1 Extreme that will go in the 30" iMac and Mac Pro. It will be interesting to see what Apple does with the Mac Pro. Maybe Apple will offer multiple M1 Extreme cards. Add more cards to increase performance.

 

[JohnnyGo]

I think Apple will introduce one more M1 chip, the M1 Extreme that will go in the 30" iMac and Mac Pro. It will be interesting to see what Apple does with the Mac Pro. Maybe Apple will offer multiple M1 Extreme cards. Add more cards to increase performance.

More likely Apple will use multiple SOCs (2x or 4x) in its desktop PRO lineup.

The new Mac Pro will have its base model with 2x M1 Max SOCs and have a BTO of 4x M1 Max.

If my dreams are fulfilled, a new Mac Mini Pro might have 2x M1 Pro and have a BTO of 4x M1 Pro. Most likely the Mac Mini will have just the same options as MBPs ie M1Pro or M1 max in a single SOC config.

 

[Krevnik]

I would love to see Apple do a 12-month release cycle instead of 18.

I think it depends on how much the transition itself has been distracting the silicon team at Apple, and how many resources get freed up once the transition is done.

 

[nquinn]

I'm fine with waiting. The A15 cores were pretty disappointing from a performance perspective, and battery life is already plenty good on these machines.

A bump when AS moves to 3nm in 2023 or something is prob fine.