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Curious: you guys believe we'll be able to pre-order?

K

ki2594

macrumors 6502a
Original poster
Apr 12, 2008
802
5
Carmel, IN.
Hey everyone, i see a lot of you are excited about the iPad. Good to hear.

I'm fortunate enough to have a dad willing to buy me an iPad for my birthday (which was 2 days ago, but we'll hold out a month :)). So quite excited now. I think i'll go with the 32GB WiFi only.

Anyways, i was wondering if you guys think we'll be able to pre-order the iPad similar to the 3GS? The reason i doubt it is because they'd want to create hype with lines, but what do you guys think? I don't want it to be lines only to get a hold of it day 1 because it'll probably be a weekday (dad's work, school for me).

Thanks for reading :)
 
Yes, you will most likely be able to preorder

Click the "notify me" button on the iPad page to get this
This has been understood by most to be a "pre order"

Apple_-_iPad_-_Notify_Me-20100227-214932.jpg
 
Yeah i did the notify me thing earlier, got me thinking. I'll be oh so happy if their are pre orders available to be delivered day 1 :)
 
Wish they'd send me some sort of info now. Or better yet, tell me a release date. I'm going nuts waiting. I'm sure I'm not the only one though. ;)
 
There will be lines even w/ pre-ordering and only the biggest U.S. metro areas have Apple Stores, so buy not having pre-ordering needlessly jettisons a lot of early sales.

Jobs said the iPad would ship in about 60 days from the announcement, so late March/early April. Bank on that b/c any delay would make Jobs look stupid and temporarily kill Apple stock.

Apple probably wants to have as narrow of a pre-order period as possible. Why? A lot of pre-orders are impulsive and a longer pre-order period gives people more opportunity to cancel if they start feeling guilty about spending $500+ on what for many will be a non-essential gadget. So keep the pre-order window small and Apple automatically reduces the cancel rate.
 
The 3GS had reservations, but people still lined up with their reservations because they wanted to get their phone before work that Friday.
 
It'll be pre-order for delivery as soon as the lazy FCC thugs get off their rear ends and do their job on approval.

The apple stores will have lines, I"m sure. It's a cultural thing, fun to do, good people, ect.

Most of the orders, I'd bet, will be over the internet.
 
racer1441 said:
It'll be pre-order for delivery as soon as the lazy FCC thugs get off their rear ends and do their job on approval.

The apple stores will have lines, I"m sure. It's a cultural thing, fun to do, good people, ect.

Most of the orders, I'd bet, will be over the internet.
Click to expand...


iPad likely got FCC certification weeks ago. It only takes 2-3 weeks from submission, and it's done by one of several private companies, chosen by the submitter, not the FCC itself.

Apple probably hasn't started pre-ordering for strategic reasons. They don't want to peak too soon and there is no good reason to allow pre-ordering until the very last logistic moment. With current automation, Apple can slap a label and get product to the shipping company lightning fast.
 
Another advantage of ordering online, pre or not, would be the potential of having something engraved on yours. The offer engraving for the other iPods. It would be nice to see it offered for the iPad.
 
Chupa Chupa said:
There will be lines even w/ pre-ordering and only the biggest U.S. metro areas have Apple Stores, so buy not having pre-ordering needlessly jettisons a lot of early sales.

Jobs said the iPad would ship in about 60 days from the announcement, so late March/early April. Bank on that b/c any delay would make Jobs look stupid and temporarily kill Apple stock.

Apple probably wants to have as narrow of a pre-order period as possible. Why? A lot of pre-orders are impulsive and a longer pre-order period gives people more opportunity to cancel if they start feeling guilty about spending $500+ on what for many will be a non-essential gadget. So keep the pre-order window small and Apple automatically reduces the cancel rate.
Click to expand...
I see your point but don't they also want to get some sort of an idea of how many of these new products they are going to need to make? Wouldn't pre-ordering as far in advance as possible give them a better idea?
It is afterall, a product in uncharted waters. :D
 
DotCom2 said:
I see your point but don't they also want to get some sort of an idea of how many of these new products they are going to need to make? Wouldn't pre-ordering as far in advance as possible give them a better idea?
It is afterall, a product in uncharted waters. :D
Click to expand...

They have the little button to click on that says notify me.

I'm sure they have a ballpark of the percentage of people who sign up for that button who will order one. I know I'm in that group.

Plus I'm sure they are making extras so they won't run out.
 
thejakill said:
They have the little button to click on that says notify me.

I'm sure they have a ballpark of the percentage of people who sign up for that button who will order one. I know I'm in that group.

Plus I'm sure they are making extras so they won't run out.
Click to expand...

Good catch!
I hadn't thought about that.
But I still want to pre-order mine as soon as possible!:D
Everyday I am on my iPhone and I say to myself...I could be doing this on my iPad...sigh
 
DotCom2 said:
I see your point but don't they also want to get some sort of an idea of how many of these new products they are going to need to make? Wouldn't pre-ordering as far in advance as possible give them a better idea?
It is afterall, a product in uncharted waters. :D
Click to expand...


Apple said it estimates it will sell 10m units worldwide the first year, similar to their original iPhone sales estimate. Apple analyst have said estimated sales between 4-6m units.

My point here is Apple already has a good idea of projected demand and launch requirements (broken down by model) + a constant 4 week inventory. Since Apple is starting from a zero-level inventory with only a few weeks to ramp up production its almost physically impossible for Apple to produce too many units. (Can only make so many units in a day, right). Also Apple likely needs to monitor the production goes smoothly before it ensures all pre-orderers launch day delivery.

If initial launch demand turns out to be lower than Apple's research indicated then Apple will slow down production line and let existing inventory sell down to meet the actual demand curve.

By reference - Sony had 400K PS3 at U.S. launch and there was still demand for more. Nintnedo had 1m Wiis at U.S. launch and we know how that went. It's estimated that Apple sold 400K-500K iPhones(U.S.) the first weekend and had brief shortages in some areas. Based on this I'd guess that Apple needs to have about 500K-750K or so units available for a worldwide launch.
 
Remember the iPhone 3GS was announced on what I believe was a Tuesday, and was available in stores 10 days later. If the iPad is to follow, I wouldn't expect being able to pre-order until a little over a week before launch.

If I had a guess, and just riding the "maybe more features are coming" bandwagon, we will see an iPhone OS 4.0 event in mid-March, detailing plenty of new things we can expect for the iPad. It's unlikely 4.0 will make it into the iPad at launch, but having the "these will be available by summer" features listed will certainly get even more people on the iPad train. I'd guess that same day, or a few days later, pre-orders will start, followed by the launch in stores a little over a week later.

It's still odd to me that Apple would launch a new category of products with a mid-cycle firmware (3.2), but I guess it's debatable whether they'd be willing to announce 4.0 and launch it with the iPad, when developers really would have to launch their apps without any 4.0 functionality. We'll see.
 
I think pre-orders will be good so Apple will have an idea what initial shipments need to be made to Apple Stores. I expect stores to sell out on the Launch day and get more the next day like the iPhone Launch. It will go faster since activation is not required.
 
racer1441 said:
It'll be pre-order for delivery as soon as the lazy FCC thugs get off their rear ends and do their job on approval.

The apple stores will have lines, I"m sure. It's a cultural thing, fun to do, good people, ect.

Most of the orders, I'd bet, will be over the internet.
Click to expand...

What are you, some kind of Tea Party Palinist?
 
Vesuvio Cat said:
What are you, some kind of Tea Party Palinist?
Click to expand...

I love how before 2009, if I made fun of the government, it was cool. But now, if I make fun of the government, there is something wrong with me.

msduncan said:
You don't have to be a tea party palinist to think the government sucks.
Click to expand...

+10

As for preorders, I expect them to be available the Friday after the OS 4.0 event. So probably either the 13th or 20th. Likely the 20th.
 
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