Dear tablet naysayers: Stop looking back when we’re thinking ahead

[Virtuo]

While I'm not particularly aggravated with negative feedback over the probable tablet Apple is said to be outing next month, I am aggravated over the terrible logic fueling their negativity, which mainly encompass the idea that, "It's been done before and failed. Therefore, the next iteration will fail." I find it safe to assume that technology has progressed (software, and hardware) to the point where success of a tablet machine of some sort is currently probable, given the proper planning, targeting, and so forth. I'm not saying that Apple will definitely succeed in the tablet market, but I do think that they have a much better chance than other companies in/venturing into that particular market, given their experience and unique hardware/software infrastructure.

And I guess I'm not alone in my thoughts:
http://www.wired.com/gadgetlab/2009/08/tablet-naysayers/

 

[Surely]

I have no doubt that it could be a wonderful device (except the virtual keyboard could be cumbersome to use).

However, there is no real market for it.

Instead of retyping something I have said in another thread, here are my thoughts:

This is not a device that everyone would be able to make use of. When Apple designs a product like this (as opposed to a Mac Pro), they try to design it for everyone- not just for a small niche market. They would want to sell as many of them as they possibly can. If someone had a choice between a tablet and a laptop/desktop, I think that they would go with the laptop/desktop. If someone already had a laptop/desktop, perhaps they would buy the tablet. This device seems more like a toy than something that would be useful for day-to-day productivity. That is the problem with this device. As much as every Apple fanboy wants to see them make the legendary tablet, I think that they will have a hard time selling them. Sure, everyone will think that the new tablet is cool, everyone will go to the Apple Store to play with it, but in the end, especially in the economic environment we're in, I don't see this being a slam-dunk (like the iPhone). I don't think that the timing is right.

 

[clevin]

same old rhetoric, Mac has overall 4% market share, what do you expect mac tablet to do?

success is a funny word, what do you mean by success? 1% of overall market share? without a definition, you can just say whatever you want to say, doesn't really mean anything.

 

[Eidorian]

It better not be ARM.

 

[OzExige]

same old rhetoric, Mac has overall 4% market share, what do you expect mac tablet to do?

success is a funny word, what do you mean by success? 1% of overall market share? without a definition, you can just say whatever you want to say, doesn't really mean anything.

umm......
funny word? maybe, it's a simple word and in the context used here I think it can also mean PROFIT!
Many products can garner market share however, profit is everything and I mean 'Net Profit'

 

[localoid]

Apple's "Jesus Tablet." What For?

Jean-Louis Gassée, executive at Apple Computer, 1981-1990, and founder of Be Inc., creators of the BeOS computer operating system, takes a hard look at rumors about an iTablet.

 

[talkingfuture]

I agree with the original poster. There were lots of naysayers about Apple making Mp3 players and phones. I think Apple will have got this thing right and can't wait to see it. All the negativity has been based in existing solutions and very little evidence of how Apple have approached the tablet.

 

[Scarlet Fever]

I just can't see how a tablet would be useful for the general public. I can see how graphic designers could use them because they can use it as a digital sketch pad, and people in hospitals can use them as a digital clipboard, but I just can't see how people could use it for day-to-day tasks.

If I want to type up a document, I like being able to feel the keys I'm typing, i like my arms to be at a comfortable resting position, and I like the screen to be in front of me, so I don't have to hunch over the device. I can deal with a touchscreen on my iPhone, because I don't have to write essays on it.

Can someone please explain to me why people would actually buy this 'tablet' if it ever came into existence?

 

[stridemat]

I also agree with the original poster, look how Apple reinvented the MP3 player back in 2001. It was something totally different from those big and clunky or small and useless MP3 player which were around then.

Since technology has moved on so much since 2001, Apple should be able to produce a similar ground breaking device.

I can't really think of a product which Apple has released which is not well thought of and executes its role near perfectly.

 

[mysterytramp]

I just can't see how a tablet would be useful for the general public. I can see how graphic designers could use them because they can use it as a digital sketch pad, and people in hospitals can use them as a digital clipboard, but I just can't see how people could use it for day-to-day tasks.

If I want to type up a document, I like being able to feel the keys I'm typing, i like my arms to be at a comfortable resting position, and I like the screen to be in front of me, so I don't have to hunch over the device. I can deal with a touchscreen on my iPhone, because I don't have to write essays on it.

Can someone please explain to me why people would actually buy this 'tablet' if it ever came into existence?

Count me as a member of the general public and I think they'd be great. Of course, I'm making a few assumptions:

1) it's as powerful as at least a netbook. Something less, and my enthusiasm wanes quicklly.
2) it's lightweight, less than most laptops. Equal or more, and my enthusiasm wanes.

Hunching over ... I'm not expecting any hunching, but I'm also making a few assumptions, too.

1) A little plastic gizmo on the back makes it upright

2) They've perfected/licensed a projected keyboard on the desk. Way, way cool.

With well-written apps, a digital clipboard would be great. Maybe a built in digital voice recorder? Awesome. If not, a third party will develop one.

And I think it will change e-reading. Here you have a truly portable computing device (portable means it can go in the bathroom).

It might not be all this, but I'm hopeful.

mt

 

[Surely]

I just can't see how a tablet would be useful for the general public. I can see how graphic designers could use them because they can use it as a digital sketch pad, and people in hospitals can use them as a digital clipboard, but I just can't see how people could use it for day-to-day tasks.

If I want to type up a document, I like being able to feel the keys I'm typing, i like my arms to be at a comfortable resting position, and I like the screen to be in front of me, so I don't have to hunch over the device. I can deal with a touchscreen on my iPhone, because I don't have to write essays on it.

Can someone please explain to me why people would actually buy this 'tablet' if it ever came into existence?

Agreed, except for the bolded part. I don't think it would be useful for people in hospitals unless there is stylus support. Without stylus support, it would be very difficult to stand and use the tablet while holding it. If you're holding it in one hand (like you would a clipboard), you could only type on the virtual keyboard with one finger- very inefficient. If they somehow design it so that you can hold it with two hands and type with your thumbs, that may be very difficult due to the size of it (it's easy on an iPhone, but it may prove quite difficult on a 10" device- the weight of it may cause it to slide down your hands, the keyboard may be too spread out).

I also agree with the original poster, look how Apple reinvented the MP3 player back in 2001. It was something totally different from those big and clunky or small and useless MP3 player which were around then.

Since technology has moved on so much since 2001, Apple should be able to produce a similar ground breaking device.

I can't really think of a product which Apple has released which is not well thought of and executes its role near perfectly.

There is a very big difference between the iPod and this magical tablet: The iPod is way more useful and marketable than a tablet.

There is no correlation between the success of the iPod and the success of any other product Apple may develop. Just because the iPod succeeded doesn't mean that any product idea that Apple comes up with will also succeed.

 

[mysterytramp]

There is no correlation between the success of the iPod and the success of any other product Apple may develop.

Thoroughly obvious.

What's more important, at least to me, is that the tablet (regardless of whether it's an Apple product or a Dell or an HP or a Lenovo or whomever) is an attempt at staking out the next generation in computing. Maybe it'll fail -- and lots of good hardware ideas do -- but that doesn't take away that the bloody thing is cool.

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."
- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943

You realize you sound an awful lot like him.

mt

 

[MTI]

I just can't see how a tablet would be useful for the general public. I can see how graphic designers could use them because they can use it as a digital sketch pad, and people in hospitals can use them as a digital clipboard, but I just can't see how people could use it for day-to-day tasks.

If I want to type up a document, I like being able to feel the keys I'm typing, i like my arms to be at a comfortable resting position, and I like the screen to be in front of me, so I don't have to hunch over the device. I can deal with a touchscreen on my iPhone, because I don't have to write essays on it.

Can someone please explain to me why people would actually buy this 'tablet' if it ever came into existence?

Keep in mind what the "general public" currently uses their technology devices for. They aren't writing term papers or rough cutting HD video . . . they're checking e-mail, surfing the web, using web based apps, watching web based video content and breaking away from the "old desktop" mode of use.

Mobile phones have shown the industry that apps can change so that full sized keyboards aren't necessary; gaming consoles have also demonstrated that you can put a lot of power into a limited number of buttons.

The future isn't QWERTY, it's the past.

 

[Surely]

Thoroughly obvious.

What's more important, at least to me, is that the tablet (regardless of whether it's an Apple product or a Dell or an HP or a Lenovo or whomever) is an attempt at staking out the next generation in computing. Maybe it'll fail -- and lots of good hardware ideas do -- but that doesn't take away that the bloody thing is cool.

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."
- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943

You realize you sound an awful lot like him.

mt

Um, how do I sound like that guy? That's quite a stretch.

Watson was living in an era of extremely expensive, extremely large mainframes. There were no personal computers yet. Oh, I get it- he worked for IBM (and not the yet-to-exist Apple), so he must be unintelligent and unimaginative. That guy was building computers when Steve Jobs was in grade school.

I'm not saying that Apple shouldn't be innovative. If you would have read the very first line in my very first comment in this thread, you would have understood that I think that it would be a very cool device ("I have no doubt that it could be a wonderful device"). However, from a business point of view, there is no real market for this device at this point in time, in this economy. As I've already said, the tablet is a niche product, it is not something that everyone and their mother will have to buy. Maybe in 5-10 years, the tablet will be the standard computing device. But not now.

I have no problem with Apple developing a product and failing. I'm not a stockholder.

 

[thegoldenmackid]

They will succeed in the sense of they will sell them easily because plenty of people on and not on these forums will simply buy it for the stickers. But I agree, finding a use for it is going to be somewhat interesting.

 

[gan6660]

Personally I cant wait for it!

 

[MisterMe]

.... But I agree, finding a use for it is going to be somewhat interesting.

Let me begin by saying that I do not subscribe to the view that everything Steve Jobs puts his hand to turns to gold because Steve Jobs put his hand to it. Miracle engineering and magical technology do not commercial success make. Commercial success is predicated on solving real problems for real people--either individuals or businesses or on sparking the imagination of enough customers to do things that they had not done before.

Although tablet computers have been interesting technology demonstrations, they did not solve problems for enough individuals and businesses to make them worthwhile. As for sparking imagination, you're writing on a glass screen rather than paper. Big whoop!

It is inconceivable that the Apple that produced the iPhone would feel obliged to produce yet another tablet computer. Apple has certainly gone to school on all the failures and partial successes that have gone before. These include its own Newton, the Palm Pilot, and Tablet PC. It has also gone to school on the iPhone.

If Apple brings a tablet computer to market--and at this moment, there is really little doubt that it will--then it will be a revolutionary device. There isn't much it can do to revolutionize a monolithic device with a glass screen. The revolution will be in the functionality.

What will it be? I have no idea, but I can't wait to see it.

 

[mysterytramp]

Commercial success is predicated on solving real problems for real people

Here's where I think you're flat out wrong. There was no collective rising up demanding an iPod or an Internet or even cell phones. The fact is, technology creates its own markets, and markets rarely create technology.

mt

 

[Surely]

Here's where I think you're flat out wrong. There was no collective rising up demanding an iPod or an Internet or even cell phones. The fact is, technology creates its own markets, and markets rarely create technology.

mt

That's flawed thinking.

The demand for the iPod was due to the huge collections of music that people had and no good way to make it portable.

The demand for the internet was due to the need for better and faster ways of communicating.

The demand for cell phones was due to the need for a portable means of communication for the general public.

Very rarely does technology create its own market.

Just because you make something that is cool does not mean that millions of people will buy it.

 

[mysterytramp]

You're completely misreading history.

No one woke up in 2000 and said they needed a pocket gizmo that carried 2000 songs.

No one demanded faster communications in the 1970s and 1980s, in fact, there was great resistance to move the Internet out of government hands into universities, and from universities to the general public. We had fax machines, who needed anything else?

And who needed cell phones, we already had pay phones on every corner. Cell phones were going to require a huge investment in a whole new infrastructure.

Looking back, these seem like pedestrian reasons for holding back a technology, but they were very real before the technology was adopted. Just because something is second nature today doesn't mean it didn't have a painful birth.

mt

 

[hamish5178]

You're completely misreading history.

No one woke up in 2000 and said they needed a pocket gizmo that carried 2000 songs.

No one demanded faster communications in the 1970s and 1980s, in fact, there was great resistance to move the Internet out of government hands into universities, and from universities to the general public. We had fax machines, who needed anything else?

And who needed cell phones, we already had pay phones on every corner. Cell phones were going to require a huge investment in a whole new infrastructure.

Looking back, these seem like pedestrian reasons for holding back a technology, but they were very real before the technology was adopted. Just because something is second nature today doesn't mean it didn't have a painful birth.

mt

Exactly!

It makes no sense to say "there's no market for a tablet and Apple's will fail".

Do you guys honestly think the people at Apple have overlooked the fact that tablets don't really sell well? No ****, of course they know. They wouldn't make something unless it was totally game-changing, just like the iPod and iPhone were. If it is a tablet it will create a market where there wasn't one. They'll make you and everyone else want one by incorporating something completely new, maybe something that hasn't even been theorized online yet.

 

[Surely]

You're completely misreading history.

No one woke up in 2000 and said they needed a pocket gizmo that carried 2000 songs.

No one demanded faster communications in the 1970s and 1980s, in fact, there was great resistance to move the Internet out of government hands into universities, and from universities to the general public. We had fax machines, who needed anything else?

And who needed cell phones, we already had pay phones on every corner. Cell phones were going to require a huge investment in a whole new infrastructure.

Looking back, these seem like pedestrian reasons for holding back a technology, but they were very real before the technology was adopted. Just because something is second nature today doesn't mean it didn't have a painful birth.

mt

The iPod wasn't the first mp3 player ever made. Going from records to cassettes to CDs to mp3s was almost a natural progression. Apple saw the potential, and created the iPod and marketed it well. However, the need for portable music storage was there prior to the iPod.

No one demanded faster communications in the 70's/80's? What are you talking about? People have ALWAYS demanded faster means of communications.
"My 3G isn't fast enough. When is 4G going to get here already?!?"

The need pushes the technology.

The tablet will be a toy. A very cool toy.

Exactly!

It makes no sense to say "there's no market for a tablet and Apple's will fail".

Do you guys honestly think the people at Apple have overlooked the fact that tablets don't really sell well? No ****, of course they know. They wouldn't make something unless it was totally game-changing, just like the iPod and iPhone were. If it is a tablet it will create a market where there wasn't one. They'll make you and everyone else want one by incorporating something completely new, maybe something that hasn't even been theorized online yet.

Why doesn't it make sense? It makes as much sense as saying "everyone will want one, and it will be the coolest thing ever!"

Apple doesn't just make stuff to look cool. They make stuff to make profit. To make their stockholders happy. Apple is a corporation, not a hippie artist.

 

[MisterMe]

Here's where I think you're flat out wrong. There was no collective rising up demanding an iPod or an Internet or even cell phones. The fact is, technology creates its own markets, and markets rarely create technology.

mt

Are you taking the contrary view of every post on this forum? Your edited version of my post may be flat-out wrong, but the original is not. I am having a difficult time seeing a substantive disagreement here. To create a controversy, you carefully deleted the second phase in my sentence:

... Commercial success is predicated on ... or on sparking the imagination of enough customers to do things that they had not done before.

...

The iPod, cell phone, and many other technologies fit this category. It is one thing to fight people with whom you disagree. That helps to make a World. It is quite another to fight people with whom you agree. That is just plain stupid.

 

[LizKat]

Bottom line: if there's anything dumber than millions of people discussing the features of hardware that is not out there yet, it's ten or twelve bloggers saying the thing is stupid and won't sell. Anything big enough to make it to the vaporware stage will sell. Especially if it's vaporware from Apple.

 

[Surely]

Bottom line: if there's anything dumber than millions of people discussing the features of hardware that is not out there yet, it's ten or twelve bloggers saying the thing is stupid and won't sell. Anything big enough to make it to the vaporware stage will sell. Especially if it's vaporware from Apple.

Huh? Not every Apple product has been successful. Just because it may have reached a certain stage in its development doesn't mean it's a slam dunk.

Who's saying it's stupid? Not me. I'm saying that there isn't a demand/market for it. I think that's perfectly reasonable.