Do you expect an M1X and M2 SoC to be released this year?

[Fomalhaut]

I'm curious about the likely timelines for the next Apple Silicon processors, and the expected release dates and specifications.

It seems probable that Apple will release an M1X using a scaled-out version of the existing M1 technologies - basically the same underlying technology with more cores (CPU, GPU and maybe Neural Engine).

Quite when we will see this is uncertain, but during or shortly after WWDC 21 looks possible. I suspect that this would be the processor for a new iMac, and maybe a MacBook Pro 14".

However, the A15 should be due around October time, and we can assume that this technology would also go into Apple Silicon for Macs as well.

Would this be the "M2", and would it offer significant architectural improvements over the M1 (or M1X)? Would the MBP16 need the improvements of an M2 chip to exceed the current Intel MBP16 - and therefore be delayed until the end of the year?

Do you think we will see both of these in 2021?

 

[smoking monkey]

All the rumors point to a 14 and 16 in July. But I understand the argument that a 16 could be held back until October for the M2. If they do hold it back to October and it has M2 it's going to be laptop Armageddon for every other company. But holding it back that long means there won't have been a 16 upgrade for 2 full years.

I'm pretty sure we'll see M1x 14 and 16 in July and then next year they'll shift to an October/November release with the M3.

We shall see! I'm hoping July for 16.

 

[JohnnyGo]

Definitely. A new SOC will see the light of day over the next 6 months.

Both MBP and iMac are poised for an upgrade and a revamped design including new screens.

 

[Miyoi]

MPB and iMac this year, Air refresh next year, then a Mac mini in two years from launch is my guess.

That, or a Mac mini pro, which definitely has a market I think.

 

[dmccloud]

Apple is on record referring to the M1 as the first in a family of chips, so drawing parallels between the A-series and M-series will only last for a short timeframe. For all we know, the 16" MBP and iMac could use an M2 instead of an M1(x) SoC, it depends on just how different the new silicon is from the M1. Since we only have the M1 as reference at this time, it's hard to say what they'll call the upcoming SoCs.

 

[thenewperson]

If both of these are supposed to be going into the midrange Macs, I doubt. I think it'd be better if they just waited for the A15-based SoCs to come out and then upgrade them than releasing an A14-based one early in the year then an A15-based one later in the year. It's not impossible but I just don't see the point.

 

[leman]

I expect a larger M1-based chip to arrive around this spring/early summer, and an evolutionary M2 (featuring SVE2 and possibly hardware ray tracing) chip in November.

 

[Pilot Jones]

definitely the M1X with the new macbooks. hopefully the M2 as well if there are any higher end desktop Mac releases.

 

[Fomalhaut]

I expect a larger M1-based chip to arrive around this spring/early summer, and an evolutionary M2 (featuring SVE2 and possibly hardware ray tracing) chip in November.

So I'm wondering if we could see an M1X-based MBP14 (and maybe MBP16) in June/July, and then something better in the period Oct/Nov 21 - Jan/Feb 22?

After buying an MBP16 in late 2019, I'm a bit gun-shy about jumping too soon onto a new MBP if they could be a rapid evolution of Apple Silicon that would result in a significant upgrade within about 5-8 months.

My experience has been that Apple often makes a fairly big jump in performance between 1st and 2nd generation products (e.g. Intel MacBook Pros, iPad, iPhone)

 

[leman]

So I'm wondering if we could see an M1X-based MBP14 (and maybe MBP16) in June/July, and then something better in the period Oct/Nov 21 - Jan/Feb 22?

After buying an MBP16 in late 2019, I'm a bit gun-shy about jumping too soon onto a new MBP if they could be a rapid evolution of Apple Silicon that would result in a significant upgrade within about 5-8 months.

My experience has been that Apple often makes a fairly big jump in performance between 1st and 2nd generation products (e.g. Intel MacBook Pros, iPad, iPhone)

I don't think anyone can reliably speculate about these things at the moment.

Personally, I would expect the next iteration of Apple Silicon to bring significant improvements: SVE, ray tracing, DDR5, more ports, better display support etc. If we go by how Appel managed their iPhone/iPad hardware releases, the higher-end chips tend to appear around 6 months or so later. But who knows really, this a completely new thing and there are still a lot of machines to be introduced.

My guess would be a "bigger" M1 (M1X) for the $1799 13"/14" this spring summer, and maybe also a low-end 16" and then a "much bigger" M2 variant for high-end 16" in autumn. But I wouldn't bet my money on it. It is also entirely possible that Appel will introduce even larger M1-based designs and upgrade the Air with a "small" M2 in autumn.

 

[xraydoc]

No doubt a new M-series chip will be coming this year, likely for revised iMacs and larger MacBooks. What they'll call it is entirely moot.

 

[Tev11]

Can't wait for them to do it, especially since Intel directly compared their 11th gen chips to the M1 for entry-level Mac's.

 

[Fomalhaut]

No doubt a new M-series chip will be coming this year, likely for revised iMacs and larger MacBooks. What they'll call it is entirely moot.

Yes, I'm expecting at least one new chip this year. My question is whether we might see two new chips (June/July & Oct/Nov)...and whether it would be worth waiting for the second one if it could bring significant improvements on top of more CPU/GPU cores.

I'm making an attempt to predict the future, to inform my purchase decisions... maybe an impossible task!

 

[xraydoc]

Yes, I'm expecting at least one new chip this year. My question is whether we might see two new chips (June/July & Oct/Nov)...and whether it would be worth waiting for the second one if it could bring significant improvements on top of more CPU/GPU cores.

I'm making an attempt to predict the future, to inform my purchase decisions... maybe an impossible task!

There will always be something better 6 months down the road.

 

[Fomalhaut]

There will always be something better 6 months down the road.

True, but there are points in time when Apple releases are particularly good, and result in a longer usable service life, or at least reduce the need to upgrade.

iPad 2 was pretty good, as was the first iPad Pro. 2015 MBP15 was another good one I believe. My 2019 MBP16 hasn't turned out to be a great purchase timing-wise, because it has almost been superceded by the M1 machines at a third of the price only a year later.

The root of my question is to gain some insight into Apple's potential roadmap for Apple Silicon. An M1X with say 8 performance cores and 12-16 GPU cores would be good if available mid-year, but it would be galling to purchase then, if there were a significant improvement in late 2021, say with architectural improvement ("5nm+"), DDR5 memory etc.

In short, some product improvements are more significant than others.

It's a bit like predicting the stock exchange working out the best time to buy....

 

[profcutter]

The 2015 MacBook Pro case was an anomaly, made by intel stalling out on chip development and Apple’s shoddy decision making with the 2016 MacBook pros. It was 2018 by the time you started to see real improvements in performance, and 2019 for the 16 inch to be rid of the problematic keyboard. I would <<hope>> that apple learned its lessons, and with control of the chip process and its experience with the earlier MBPs and the quagmire of Mac Pro 6,1, that it won’t do that again. I would expect that the next few years would just show a stead improvement, but I could be wrong, if apple drops the ball again, or if they make some serious unforeseen jump in technologies, which is certainly possible since the M1 is just their first desktop/laptop chip.

 

[Fomalhaut]

The 2015 MacBook Pro case was an anomaly, made by intel stalling out on chip development and Apple’s shoddy decision making with the 2016 MacBook pros. It was 2018 by the time you started to see real improvements in performance, and 2019 for the 16 inch to be rid of the problematic keyboard. I would <<hope>> that apple learned its lessons, and with control of the chip process and its experience with the earlier MBPs and the quagmire of Mac Pro 6,1, that it won’t do that again. I would expect that the next few years would just show a stead improvement, but I could be wrong, if apple drops the ball again, or if they make some serious unforeseen jump in technologies, which is certainly possible since the M1 is just their first desktop/laptop chip.

I would hope that Apple would be able to achieve regular (somewhat predictable) incremental improvements from now on.

There are likely to be a few "jumps" of performance and features in the initial year or two, which is what I'm interested in.

My inclination at this time would be to wait to see what happens with the MacBook Pros and iMacs by the end of the year to see if there are any leaps in GPU performance, which I see as the biggest unknown.

One upside of the pandemic is that I don't have an immediate need for a more portable laptop with good battery life (no travel and working from home), so I can wait 2021 out to see what happens.

 

[Taz Mangus]

Apple might use a D series CPU for desktop class computers. There could be a D1 for the iMac, D1X for the MacPro and M1X for 14" and 16" MacBook Pro.

 

[AppliedVisual]

Based on official tech info and other commentary, we know the M1 is capable of 32GB RAM. Given that, I’m expecting an M1X soon that will provide 32GB RAM and higher clock rate than the current M1. Maybe a couple other features, but RAM and clock being the main bumps.

I‘m assuming we will have a bigger M series chip this summer/fall as well. Perhaps it will be M1Z or M2 or whatever they decide to call it. I’m thinking it will still get the M1 base name as it’s still a first-gen design. This bigger M chip will be for the 16” MBP, iMac, and probably available in the Mac Mini as well. I expect the Mini to offer multiple M chip options. The cooling design of the Mini can definitely accommodate a whole lot more than the current M1 chip. And the current M1 hardly shows any performance difference between the 13” MBP and Mini while the MBA M1 only falls a little behind in most situations being passively cooled. It really only throttles back or restricts itself under extreme sustained loads.

 

[chouseworth]

Tim’s no fool. He has broken the ice, has Intel on the defensive, but will not be resting on his M1 laurels for long. Look for him to capitalize and carefully extend Apple’s success sooner than later. He has Apple’s desktop and laptop businesses in incredibly good position right now. Those who only a year ago were questioning his ability to lead innovation are much harder to find these days.

 

[Chompineer]

All the rumors point to a 14 and 16 in July. But I understand the argument that a 16 could be held back until October for the M2. If they do hold it back to October and it has M2 it's going to be laptop Armageddon for every other company. But holding it back that long means there won't have been a 16 upgrade for 2 full years.

I'm pretty sure we'll see M1x 14 and 16 in July and then next year they'll shift to an October/November release with the M3.

We shall see! I'm hoping July for 16.

No it isn't. The people who buy Windows machines because they need Windows will keep doing so. Can't even virtualize properly on AS.

I have an M1 Air, but there is absolutely no way to run some software I need (S-Frame and Civil3D, for example). This is a sweet little toy, but it's useless as a professional machine, especially in STEM fields. No amount of power is going to fix that.

Hardly anyone even knows about AS, and even fewer care, sorry to say.

This is a fanboy forum, you need to take a step back, breathe, and realize that 99.9% of people don't care.

 

[chouseworth]

No it isn't. The people who buy Windows machines because they need Windows will keep doing so. Can't even virtualize properly on AS.

I have an M1 Air, but there is absolutely no way to run some software I need (S-Frame and Civil3D, for example). This is a sweet little toy, but it's useless as a professional machine, especially in STEM fields. No amount of power is going to fix that.

Hardly anyone even knows about AS, and even fewer care, sorry to say.

This is a fanboy forum, you need to take a step back, breathe, and realize that 99.9% of people don't care.

99.9% of people need professional machines, primarily for STEM usage? If you are in a STEM field, you might want to brush up on your sixth grade arithmetic.

 

[Fomalhaut]

No it isn't. The people who buy Windows machines because they need Windows will keep doing so. Can't even virtualize properly on AS.

I'm confident that virtualization of ARM-builds for various OSes will be available quite soon. It's not ready for serious use yet, I would agree.

I have an M1 Air, but there is absolutely no way to run some software I need (S-Frame and Civil3D, for example). This is a sweet little toy, but it's useless as a professional machine, especially in STEM fields. No amount of power is going to fix that.

I would disagree with that as a blanket statement - it depends on your profession. The M1 works fine for me for Software & DevOps tasks and general productivity tasks: office docs, time management, video / audio conferencing, messaging / e-mail, photo / video viewing & editing, and anything you can do in a web-browser. I would bet that that this covers the vast majority of "professional uses". Users of specialized STEM software must a tiny minority in the general working population.

You are correct that much STEM specialist software is Intel only, but a lot of it is Windows only as well, so you wouldn't be considering any kind of Mac computer for these - unless you run under x86 virtualization.

Hardly anyone even knows about AS, and even fewer care, sorry to say.

This is a fanboy forum, you need to take a step back, breathe, and realize that 99.9% of people don't care.

This is sadly almost certainly true.

 

[Fomalhaut]

99.9% of people need professional machines, primarily for STEM usage? If you are in a STEM field, you might want to brush up on your sixth grade arithmetic.

I think he said that 99.9% of people don't know or care about Apple Silicon...which may well be true at the moment

But I would expect an increasing awareness of the differences between Apple Silicon and x86-based computers during the AS transition. Probably most people buying a computer know that a Mac is different to a Windows computer and runs different software. If increased sales of AS Macs lead to more people understanding that "Macs are faster" (based on reviews, personal experience of friends / family etc.) then more people will understand that there is an important differentiator between Wintel and AS Macs.

 

[Erehy Dobon]

My guess is that they had candidate "M1X" and "M2" SoCs in their labs when the M1 was unveiled. In fact, I believe Apple has had competitive prototypes in their labs for years.

Apple did say that this would be a three-year transition and based on their successful progression of A-series SoCs, I'm guessing that Apple will be able to repeatedly and regularly release meaningful upgrades.

After all, that's part of the reason why they ditched Intel on the desktop and moved away from reference Arm (and mobile GPU) designs.