I'm in the UK and don't have an iPad yet, but the possibility that I might (read: almost certainly will) get an iPad is making me think twice about upgrading my iPhone.
I have a 2 year old iPhone 3G. It still looks and runs great, and mine is on Pay As You Go, which I top up with around £10 a month. I will never lose my iPhone for a couple of reasons. The most obvious being that even with an iPad I will still need a phone, then there are other smaller issues such as being able to whip Doodle Jump out for quick 5 minute bursts during quiet times at work. I honestly think that when I finally get my hands on an iPad, the iPhone will be relegated to making calls and sending messages only.
If I was on a contract, I think i'd consider downgrading. The iPhone is still a superb piece of kit (irrespective of model or iPad ownership) that I'd find very hard to let go of, but keeping 2 data plans for devices that essentially do similar things could be asking alot for alot of people. It's only because being on PAYG and my monthly usage being so relativley cheap why it would make no sense to drop the iPhone personally, but the presence of the iPad has made me reconsider going full whack on the new iPhone on a contract.