In light of how many multitasking features are exclusive to M1 and M2 versions of iPad Pro and iPad Air, the small, but growing number of features that are exclusive to the 12.9-inch iPad Pro, and how little of it seems even remotely likely to end up on the iPad mini (given that there doesn't seem to be a seventh generation iPad mini imminently on its way and that the current iPad mini misses out on all of said features) it's starting to seem like each size category of iPad is being positioned towards different kinds of intended user experiences.
I think that, given this, iPadOS is on track to eventually fragment based on which kind of iPad a user gets. You have different use cases and different hardware features coming to each of the three size categories of iPad as it is. Eventually, it won't make sense for the iPad mini to be running the same operating systems that the 12.9-inch iPad Pro runs because the two will be positioned to be two very different iPads. Similarly, even though this size category now has FOUR models of iPad, and while there is overlap in users and use cases of both the mini and the 12.9-inch Pro with the 10.2-11-inch iPads, there are still going to be things that middle size won't be as optimal for. Unless iPadOS is to remain a big-tent OS for these varying use cases, it'll likely continue to fragment until it results in either different operating systems or fragmented experiences that are only "iPadOS" in common by name only.
At the current rate, it eventually won't make sense to give an iPad mini the same OS or even just UI as a 12.9-inch iPad Pro. And, in many cases, the user experience is already different. Similarly, it eventually won't make sense to treat an 10.9-11-inch iPad as the same kind of device for the same kinds of folks as either a 12.9-inch iPad Pro or an iPad mini. The fragmentation factor is increasing and I think it's going to lead to Apple making interesting decisions for iPadOS and iPads in general from this point onwards.
I think that, given this, iPadOS is on track to eventually fragment based on which kind of iPad a user gets. You have different use cases and different hardware features coming to each of the three size categories of iPad as it is. Eventually, it won't make sense for the iPad mini to be running the same operating systems that the 12.9-inch iPad Pro runs because the two will be positioned to be two very different iPads. Similarly, even though this size category now has FOUR models of iPad, and while there is overlap in users and use cases of both the mini and the 12.9-inch Pro with the 10.2-11-inch iPads, there are still going to be things that middle size won't be as optimal for. Unless iPadOS is to remain a big-tent OS for these varying use cases, it'll likely continue to fragment until it results in either different operating systems or fragmented experiences that are only "iPadOS" in common by name only.
At the current rate, it eventually won't make sense to give an iPad mini the same OS or even just UI as a 12.9-inch iPad Pro. And, in many cases, the user experience is already different. Similarly, it eventually won't make sense to treat an 10.9-11-inch iPad as the same kind of device for the same kinds of folks as either a 12.9-inch iPad Pro or an iPad mini. The fragmentation factor is increasing and I think it's going to lead to Apple making interesting decisions for iPadOS and iPads in general from this point onwards.