Exponential gains of M1

[MacBH928]

Some people seem to have the idea that the M1 released by Apple is only the start, and by next year we will see exponential improvements like 2x faster and 20% less wattage usage. I feel like we have seen the exponential performance improvements, this is it. Any thing in the future will be spec bumps. We will not see improvements on the M1 chip like we have seen on the A-series on the iphones every couple of years. Of course, they have not released their PRO chips yet which should be much more powerful but once those are released its spec bumps from there.

Is there any indication that this is not the case and this is only the first generation which are usually weak(like on original iPad) and will see crazy boosts in the future?

 

[leman]

I very much doubt that we will see any exponential gains, but at the same time an argument can be made that M1 can actually run faster than what we got with this first round of Macs. Apple seems to configure them with 3.2ghz, which is enough to compete even with high-end desktop CPUs, but given how little power they consume, I wouldn't be surprised if they could scale up to 3.5 or even to 3.8 ghz.

 

[Sanpete]

Don't see why the "PRO" chips you refer to couldn't be 2x faster for some tasks with 2x the performance cores and some other improvements, but after that, it will probably be slower, as you say, similar to the A series.

 

[Krevnik]

Don't see why the "PRO" chips you refer to couldn't be 2x faster for some tasks with 2x the performance cores and some other improvements, but after that, it will probably be slower, as you say, similar to the A series.

This. A lot of the gains I'm expecting is because Apple hasn't shown their hand on how high the CPU/GPU core counts can go yet.

It'll be interesting to see how long Apple can maintain their generational uplift trajectory before it plateaus, though. They've been posting impressive uplift in the A series, and since the A14 and M1 share their CPU core design, any future uplift in the A15+ will translate pretty equally to the Mac as well. But if they start to plateau, both platforms will plateau.

 

[MK500]

Some people seem to have the idea that the M1 released by Apple is only the start, and by next year we will see exponential improvements like 2x faster and 20% less wattage usage. I feel like we have seen the exponential performance improvements, this is it. Any thing in the future will be spec bumps. We will not see improvements on the M1 chip like we have seen on the A-series on the iphones every couple of years. Of course, they have not released their PRO chips yet which should be much more powerful but once those are released its spec bumps from there.

Is there any indication that this is not the case and this is only the first generation which are usually weak(like on original iPad) and will see crazy boosts in the future?

I’m missing your rationale for WHY Apple’s steady silicon innovation has now ended. They have been pretty consistent for many years now. Why would they stop now?

Tesla didn’t stop R&D when they shipped the Model 3.

The only way you stay ahead long terms is to never stop innovating. Take the lead, and then don’t let your competitors ever catch up.

My expectation is that Apple will stay on the same graph of constant large performance boosts until there is some physical limitation they cannot overcome.

 

[MacBH928]

This. A lot of the gains I'm expecting is because Apple hasn't shown their hand on how high the CPU/GPU core counts can go yet.

It'll be interesting to see how long Apple can maintain their generational uplift trajectory before it plateaus, though. They've been posting impressive uplift in the A series, and since the A14 and M1 share their CPU core design, any future uplift in the A15+ will translate pretty equally to the Mac as well. But if they start to plateau, both platforms will plateau.

This is what I am thinking, they probably have some powerful CPUs to be released but after that by next year I don't think we will see the generational jump we saw with this year's MBA. People seem to think this is only the beginning and we will have exponential jumps by next year and the year after that.

I’m missing your rationale for WHY Apple’s steady silicon innovation has now ended. They have been pretty consistent for many years now. Why would they stop now?

Tesla didn’t stop R&D when they shipped the Model 3.

The only way you stay ahead long terms is to never stop innovating. Take the lead, and then don’t let your competitors ever catch up.

My expectation is that Apple will stay on the same graph of constant large performance boosts until there is some physical limitation they cannot overcome.

This is what this thread is discussing, seems to me this was the big jump and the coming years things will plateau just like Intel. Intel used to release exponentially faster CPUs in the 90s but things later on slowed down, and it seems this is what will happen with M1 chips unless someone have a reason that this is not the case.

 

[crsh1976]

The chips can only get better, but they need to come up with a beefier GPU solution (or a way to use AMD/Nvidia cards with their ARM chips) - the first crop is good for general usage, it's better than Intel's integrated graphics, but we'll need more real fast.

 

[SlCKB0Y]

Some people seem to have the idea that the M1 released by Apple is only the start, and by next year we will see exponential improvements like 2x faster and 20% less wattage usage. I feel like we have seen the exponential performance improvements, this is it.

What exponential gains? Apple chips have never been delivering exponential increases in performance. They have been delivering rapid, but linear increases in power every year that has far outpaced anything from Intel.

The exponential gains which people are expecting is because until now, Apple has achieved this extremely impressive but linear increase in performance installed in power and thermally constrained devices, like iPhones, iPads and (now) small form factor laptops.

Once you remove those constraints and put them into larger form factor and mains power connected devices, they can start pumping in more power, increasing clock speeds, core counts and active cooling and you'll really start to see these things fly.

 

[cgsnipinva]

Some people seem to have the idea that the M1 released by Apple is only the start, and by next year we will see exponential improvements like 2x faster and 20% less wattage usage. I feel like we have seen the exponential performance improvements, this is it. Any thing in the future will be spec bumps. We will not see improvements on the M1 chip like we have seen on the A-series on the iphones every couple of years. Of course, they have not released their PRO chips yet which should be much more powerful but once those are released its spec bumps from there.

Is there any indication that this is not the case and this is only the first generation which are usually weak(like on original iPad) and will see crazy boosts in the future?

Curious as to why you point to significant gains year to year from the A series processors but don't see the same with the M series processors. I think Apple is working on revised CPU and GPU cores that have more performance. If there is a process improvement to 4nm then that would provide a significant boost. That also does not include whatever improvements are made to the neural engine processor, ML processor, etc.

 

[cgsnipinva]

The chips can only get better, but they need to come up with a beefier GPU solution (or a way to use AMD/Nvidia cards with their ARM chips) - the first crop is good for general usage, it's better than Intel's integrated graphics, but we'll need more real fast.

Agree but I suspect Apple is working on that. It was only recently they developed their own GPU cores - I expect them to increase the performance of their cores the same way they are working on their custom CPU cores.

 

[Marshall73]

I expect to see more cores for both CPU and GPU, along with more RAM and then moderate clock increases.

 

[JohnnyGo]

I expect to see more cores for both CPU and GPU, along with more RAM and then moderate clock increases.

Me too.

My guess is that development in the areas below will create a larger total impact:
A) smaller chip production nodes (higher density, more power efficiency)
B) better cores for both CPU and GPU, in line with previous gains
C) higher number of cores
D) dedicated engines/sub-cores for video/image/calc/storage/etc
E) higher TDPs ie more power consumption by the SOC itself (more power = more performance)
F) dedicated GPU that would allow for even higher TDPs in desktop machines

 

[Marshall73]

Me too.

My guess is that development in the areas below will create a larger total impact:
A) smaller chip production nodes (higher density, more power efficiency)
B) better cores for both CPU and GPU, in line with previous gains
C) higher number of cores
D) dedicated engines/sub-cores for video/image/calc/storage/etc
E) higher TDPs ie more power consumption by the SOC itself (more power = more performance)
F) dedicated GPU that would allow for even higher TDPs in desktop machines

Yeah, I think they will do a GPU card in the Pro along the lines of the afterburner card.

 

[acidfast7_redux]

What exponential gains? Apple chips have never been delivering exponential increases in performance. They have been delivering rapid, but linear increases in power every year that has far outpaced anything from Intel.

The exponential gains which people are expecting is because until now, Apple has achieved this extremely impressive but linear increase in performance installed in power and thermally constrained devices, like iPhones, iPads and (now) small form factor laptops.

Once you remove those constraints and put them into larger form factor and mains power connected devices, they can start pumping in more power, increasing clock speeds, core counts and active cooling and you'll really start to see these things fly.

That was going to be MY post.

I can't stand it when precise terminology enters the masses and is misused.

There is nothing exponential here.

Other pet peeves include decimate (1 in 10) and the incorrect usage of superspreader recently, it's not an event, people. It's a person with unknown characteristics that spreads at an approx 10-fold rate as others and represent a small percentage of overall people spreading.

That is all.

Have a nice FRI and a nice weekend.

 

[revs]

Came here to say they are delivering consistent linear increases, i was beaten to it.

 

[cgsnipinva]

I am perfectly fine with consistent linear increases in performance.

 

[MacBH928]

The chips can only get better, but they need to come up with a beefier GPU solution (or a way to use AMD/Nvidia cards with their ARM chips) - the first crop is good for general usage, it's better than Intel's integrated graphics, but we'll need more real fast.

I am no engineer so I don't know the difference but if they do come up with a GPU that uses similar technology to their CPU M1s... I am guessing Apple GPUs will splatter AMD&Nvidia's intestine all over the wall.

What exponential gains? Apple chips have never been delivering exponential increases in performance. They have been delivering rapid, but linear increases in power every year that has far outpaced anything from Intel.

The exponential gains which people are expecting is because until now, Apple has achieved this extremely impressive but linear increase in performance installed in power and thermally constrained devices, like iPhones, iPads and (now) small form factor laptops.

Once you remove those constraints and put them into larger form factor and mains power connected devices, they can start pumping in more power, increasing clock speeds, core counts and active cooling and you'll really start to see these things fly.

Its not year-over-year but if you look at the graph from A11 to A14 there is near double the performance and from A9 to A14 its 3x+ the performance. On the Intel side, there is not even double. The biggest jump is a mere 50% in the past 7 years. I am not counting the jump since A4 either.

If you want to call it a "linear" increase in performance thats fine, but the question is will it plateau now or we will see a similar continued increase? Moore's law surely will hit a wall...at least for sometime until there is a new technological advancement.

 

[acidfast7_redux]

I am no engineer so I don't know the difference but if they do come up with a GPU that uses similar technology to their CPU M1s... I am guessing Apple GPUs will splatter AMD&Nvidia's intestine all over the wall.




Its not year-over-year but if you look at the graph from A11 to A14 there is near double the performance and from A9 to A14 its 3x+ the performance. On the Intel side, there is not even double. The biggest jump is a mere 50% in the past 7 years. I am not counting the jump since A4 either.

If you want to call it a "linear" increase in performance thats fine, but the question is will it plateau now or we will see a similar continued increase? Moore's law surely will hit a wall...at least for sometime until there is a new technological advancement.

If that was the question, why wasn't that asked initially?

 

[SlCKB0Y]

but the question is will it plateau now or we will see a similar continued increase? Moore's law surely will hit a wall...at least for sometime until there is a new technological advancement.

You're right, Apple has seen a 300% increase in performance over the same period that Intel has seen 50%.

BUT, Apple's performance increases ARE linear. Moore's Law is exponential. Apple has not been keeping up with Moore's law until now because Apple's performance gains have been seriously constrained by the power and thermal limitations (and therefore core count and CPU frequency) and die/package size due to the fact that the processors have been purposefully optimised for battery life, passive cooling on size constrained mainboards. They don't have these constraints anymore.

Once their desktop devices (Mac mini excluded) are introduced it gets even better - they have the luxury of much more efficient active cooling than a laptop/SFF can provide, permanent mains power and a big mainboard to take a larger package with lots of CPU, GPU cores and other co-processors.

 

[Benz63amg]

That’s what everyone thought when apple released their first ever mobile SoC design for the iPhones.. Apple improves them every year or two and is beyond just a “spec” bump.

 

[brianmowrey]

Other pet peeves include decimate (1 in 10) and the incorrect usage of superspreader recently, it's not an event, people.

I mean, we don't call children's birthday parties a Clown Event, but that's not because there's a linguistic law against it.

 

[acidfast7_redux]

I mean, we don't call children's birthday parties a Clown Event, but that's not because there's a linguistic law against it.

Who has a clown for kids? Isn't this more common at adult parties these days?

 

[SlCKB0Y]

Who has a clown for kids? Isn't this more common at adult parties these days?

Whaaat? Who are you hanging out with? ?

 

[MacBH928]

You're right, Apple has seen a 300% increase in performance over the same period that Intel has seen 50%.

BUT, Apple's performance increases ARE linear. Moore's Law is exponential. Apple has not been keeping up with Moore's law until now because Apple's performance gains have been seriously constrained by the power and thermal limitations (and therefore core count and CPU frequency) and die/package size due to the fact that the processors have been purposefully optimised for battery life, passive cooling on size constrained mainboards. They don't have these constraints anymore.

Once their desktop devices (Mac mini excluded) are introduced it gets even better - they have the luxury of much more efficient active cooling than a laptop/SFF can provide, permanent mains power and a big mainboard to take a larger package with lots of CPU, GPU cores and other co-processors.

1- According to Wikipedia Moore changed his law in the 1970s to say the transistors will double every 2 years, so this looks like whats happening here with A - Series chips

2-Ok so if we assume what you say then we should expect some crazy speeds in the future, but...isn't this what Apple already did with the M1? They removed the constrained of termal limitations and power constraints? I believe it already operates at 30W, I don't know how many watt iphone operate on.

 

[SlCKB0Y]

Ok so if we assume what you say then we should expect some crazy speeds in the future, but...isn't this what Apple already did with the M1? They removed the constrained of termal limitations and power constraints? I believe it already operates at 30W, I don't know how many watt iphone operate on.

Well like I mentioned, two of the M1 devices are power constrained because they operate on battery and all three are constrained because of package size Vs available area on the mainboard. The MacBook Air is completely thermally constrained because it is passively cooled and the other two have very small fans and cases.

Apple is claiming 10W for the M1 in the MacBook Air (I've read up to 15W from other sources).

Even with this power consumption the single core performance is up there with some of the best from AMD and Intel. Suppose they do this for the next iMac: Increase the power input, implement more efficient active cooling and then raise the core clock speed. Get rid of the efficiency cores and then double the amount of cores to 8 performance cores.

They have so much head room in terms of power consumption and thermals in the larger form factor Macs it's not funny.

If we don't see enormous gains in these machines I believe it will simply be Apple purposefully being incremental so they can "wow" us each year.

Anyway, time will tell.