For longevity: MBP 2020 or wait until ARM?

[Komodo Rogue]

Hello everyone,

I am using a 2013 MBP and it's still working well, but it's starting to show its age and I think I am ready to upgrade. I plan to use my next laptop for at least five years.

The $1800 13" MBP seems perfect for me, and a good upgrade over my current machine.

My concern is Intel powered MacBooks will be pushed to an early retirement when apple's ARM machines are released.

Do you think my concern is justified? How long can we expect Intel support for MacOS releases?

Thanks

 

[mtneer]

I would expect the support to extend for many years. But even if Apple suddenly cuts off OS updates, your machine will still continue to work. And its not like Apple likes to extend all the benefits of newer OS updates to older hardware (like how Sidecar not on older machines).

 

[Komodo Rogue]

It'll continue to work, but what about things like security updates and compatibility with newer iOS devices? I usually get a new phone much more frequently than a computer, like every 2-3 years.

 

[jackietreeh0rn]

Somehow I think at least initially ARMs will not be on the macbook pros, I bet they will be on the lower powered macbooks . I'm not so sure about the power dynamics of ARM chips at PC scale.

 

[mtneer]

It'll continue to work, but what about things like security updates and compatibility with newer iOS devices? I usually get a new phone much more frequently than a computer, like every 2-3 years.

If I recall correctly Apple stopped security patches for PowerPC Macs in 2011 or 12 - a full 6 - 7 years after they stopped selling them. Since Apple hasn't even made even an announcement of the transition today, I don't think you'll be bothered by lack of security updates until the late 2020's, if not the early 2030's. By then you are more likely to be facing hardware wear and tear - battery, keyboard etc that may push you to upgrade.

 

[Komodo Rogue]

If I recall correctly Apple stopped security patches for PowerPC Macs in 2011 or 12 - a full 6 - 7 years after they stopped selling them. Since Apple hasn't even made even an announcement of the transition today, I don't think you'll be bothered by lack of security updates until the late 2020's, if not the early 2030's. By then you are more likely to be facing hardware wear and tear - battery, keyboard etc that may push you to upgrade.

Okay thanks, that's a great precedent to reference

 

[jeme]

Yes I just purchased a 2020 MBP and was wondering the same thing and I am only upgrading from a 2018 machine. Was wondering if I needed to wait for ARM processors, but I will need full compatibility will "office" type applications since this is my work machine. Absolutely looking forward to a 12 inch size MacBook - that will be awesome!

I just don't want to buy a MacBook and 6 months later an ARM 12 inch MacBook comes out. I got a really good deal on my MBP and hope to sell the old one that still has Apple Care on it for a fair price.

 

[CheesePuff]

Apple tends to support machines four years after they stop selling them (minimum), and if they are still selling new Intel based Macs in 2 years, you'd be looking at minimum 6 years of support (most likely 8).

 

[poiihy]

I think you'll be fine for 5 years. The next release and maybe the one after that will probably continue to support the intel macs (especially since they are going to be releasing new intel macs?). So if macOS 11.2 is released in 2022 as the last one supporting intel, you'll still have three more years of support for it, or probably four like they did with leopard I think.
In 10 years though it's probably going to show more age than a 2010 intel mac does today. But don't forget that this is the architecture that every other personal computer uses so you'll always be able to run Windows or Linux natively, unlike the old PowerPC macs when apple switched to Intel.
Hmm, it might even be possible that the last Intel macs will last longer than the first ARM macs because of that.

 

[Fusionskies]

Hello everyone,

I am using a 2013 MBP and it's still working well, but it's starting to show its age and I think I am ready to upgrade. I plan to use my next laptop for at least five years.

The $1800 13" MBP seems perfect for me, and a good upgrade over my current machine.

My concern is Intel powered MacBooks will be pushed to an early retirement when apple's ARM machines are released.

Do you think my concern is justified? How long can we expect Intel support for MacOS releases?

Thanks

I am using a late 2013 MacBook Pro, and so I've just made the cut to upgrade to Big Sur when it is released.
Which 2013 do you have? If its an early 2013 I can see the perks in upgrading, but with ARM around the corner it may be worth just holding on a little longer, esp if you have the same model as me.

I am sure Apple will be supporting intel Macs for years to come, but I can see some features in the future being ARM exclusive.

Personally, I am waiting for ARM, as I figure I've had my current Mac this long, an extra year is ok...

 

[jgorman]

I would recommend you wait if you want to keep it at least five years. Practically, the software support will depend on how long developers make universal binaries; I do not anticipate many will do so for five years.

 

[Grohowiak]

They said they want to finish transition in two years. That brings us to mid 22 to early 23. FROM that time you have about 3-4 years of support for sure.
I mean they are about to release more intel Macs with MBA and 13" MBP released short time ago.
If you are ok with beta testing a new platform then I say go for it. I mean I need people to do it so I can get enough information if it is safe for me to move lol

 

[Xack]

I bought a new macbook air recently to guarantee I have an a new Intel Mac as a “just in case” scenario. There is speculation about Intel Macs being sold on eBay at high prices already. I’m already comfortable with ARM computers with my Pinebook and Raspberry Pis but I feel the Mac ARM experience will be an extended beta for the first few years.

 

[gpat]

Consider you'll have to wait 6 months at least to get your hands on an ARMac. That's 25% of a 2-year life cycle. Also consider that the first 18 months of its life are inevitable to be rough in relation to everything except the roughly 15-20 most supported apps.
That's 50% of a 4-year life cycle.

 

[Grohowiak]

I bought a new macbook air recently to guarantee I have an a new Intel Mac as a “just in case” scenario. There is speculation about Intel Macs being sold on eBay at high prices already. I’m already comfortable with ARM computers with my Pinebook and Raspberry Pis but I feel the Mac ARM experience will be an extended beta for the first few years.

Less than 2 days ago there were 3 pages of fresh refurbs ranging from $900 to $3500.
Only one 21" is left.
They are selling. For a lot people it's not about the latest or greatest. They just need the tool for the job and if you are in it for professional reason you would have to be nuts to switch for 1st gen of new architecture.
How many plugins will not work in logic pro / cubase? How many scripts will bug out in Maya? How many plugins will not work in adobe apps and I can go on forever.
Hopefully all will be great but ultimately waiting for 2nd gen is the only reasonable thing to do.
For home use, go for it and enjoy whatever they serve you.

 

[Saturn007]

If your current machine isn't up to the job, then buy now.

If it's doing decently, but you wish it could be better, wait.

ARM promises faster speed and longer battery life — and that's worth holding out for. Especially as the predicted release date of the first one is less than *six* months away!

 

[KPOM]

It'll continue to work, but what about things like security updates and compatibility with newer iOS devices? I usually get a new phone much more frequently than a computer, like every 2-3 years.

I’d suggest waiting to see what Apple releases this year, unless the ability to run Windows/x86 Linux is important to you (which it doesn’t sound like it is). My guess is that we’ll see the first Apple Silicon Macs in November (unless they pull a Mac Pro and “release” it in late December with limited availability).

The 2020 13” Pro is very nice (I have that same model), and you’d definitely notice the difference from your 2013, but it’s a safe bet that the Apple Silicon Macs released later this year will be kept up to date longer.
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If I recall correctly Apple stopped security patches for PowerPC Macs in 2011 or 12 - a full 6 - 7 years after they stopped selling them. Since Apple hasn't even made even an announcement of the transition today, I don't think you'll be bothered by lack of security updates until the late 2020's, if not the early 2030's. By then you are more likely to be facing hardware wear and tear - battery, keyboard etc that may push you to upgrade.

True, but the last PowerPC Macs received only 2 OS updates (Tiger and Leopard). They did not support Snow Leopard, which came out in 2009. If Apple follows the same precedent, we might see 4 more releases for Intel Macs (since they now follow an annual release schedule).

 

[Jynto]

I came at this question from a different angle in another thread. Basically, the first few Macs after a chip transition tend to be short-changed by software updates (most early Intel Macs could only go as far as Snow Leopard), or a hot mess (the Powerbook 5300). You're between a rock and a hard place if you upgrade now. And while my hunch is that early ARM Macs will be supported for longer than the last Intel Macs, I don't think there will be that much difference.