Future of the 13" MacBook Pro

[Yebubbleman]

The move on Apple's part to transition the 2020 (Intel 8th Gen based) 2-port 13" MacBook Pro to Apple Silicon was a bit surprising.

I had thought (as others had too) that the 4-port model would have made the jump alongside the Air and that the 2-port 13" Pro would simply be discontinued as the Air and 4 port Pro with Apple Silicon would be sufficient to cover all of Apple's lower-end bases. Then, next year, we'd see a 14" replacement to the 13" Pro.

Now, I could see things changing in any number of ways. Maybe the 2-port 13" MacBook Pro continues as is for a while; the 4-port 13" MacBook Pro might transition to 14" in the process of going from Intel to Apple Silicon (maybe with a different SoC that allows for 32GB and 4 Thunderbolt ports), and maybe we have a lineup that is basically:

- MacBook Air (2 ports; lower end SoC)
- MacBook Pro 13" (2 ports; lower end SoC)
- MacBook Pro 14" (4 ports; mid/higher end SoC)
- MacBook Pro 16" (4 ports; mid/higher end SoC)

Or maybe the 13" M1 MacBook Pro becomes a 14" MacBook Air, while the 13" 4-port 10th Gen Intel MacBook Pro becomes the 14" MacBook Pro.

Or maybe the 13" M1 MacBook Pro is the first and last of its kind with the 14" MacBook Pro set to consolidate both 13" MacBook Pro models.

Either way, the fact that (a) there are still two different 13" MacBook Pro models and (b) the 2-port model made the jump to Apple Silicon where the 4-port DIDN'T makes things both interesting and nebulous for the future of the sub-16" MacBook Pros.

What say you?

 

[thenewperson]

1 and 3 are hard to choose between because they seem like the same thing ?

Now that it’s become “MBA but with active cooling” it seems to have more of a reason to actually stay. They could stand to make it cheaper though ?

 

[retta283]

Selling both a 13" and 14" Pro seems very odd to me. Just on case materials alone it would probably be cheaper in the long run to transition the whole thing to 14". I certainly do hope they bring the 4-port into AS otherwise there will be a lot of complaining.

 

[Falhófnir]

Option 1, the 2 port is in an awkward position, but Apple's market research is probably telling them they 'have' to have a Pro branded machine starting at the $1,299 price point. If nothing else, for every one of those they sell rather than a $999 MacBook Air they are probably making an extra $200 or more pure profit. I can't imagine the fan and a slightly brighter panel add all that much to the bill of materials/ manufacture.

Eventually they might fold it back into the Air, and/or bring the 14" down to ~$1,499 or something, but for the medium term I think it's staying.

 

[matram]

Selling both a 13" and 14" Pro seems very odd to me. Just on case materials alone it would probably be cheaper in the long run to transition the whole thing to 14". I certainly do hope they bring the 4-port into AS otherwise there will be a lot of complaining.

Maybe not. If they use the M1X in both 14 and 16” and provide support for more memory and ports there would be a clear differentiation between the 13 and 14”. It would only be the naming of the 13” as PRO that would be confusing, as it would be more of a prosumer device.

 

[Zazoh]

Who said apple was going to a 14" model? If they do, the'll drop the 13, not likely until they power through the transition. Personally anything 12-16 is fine on a laptop for me because when at home, I'm using an external monitor 80 % of the time, and even tho I wear glasses, I can still get work done on 12".

What I do see happening, 2 ports, chips all the same, size and storage become the differentiators. Because non of us know, it will take some time to prove me wrong. ?

 

[thenewperson]

Maybe not. If they use the M1X in both 14 and 16” and provide support for more memory and ports there would be a clear differentiation between the 13 and 14”. It would only be the naming of the 13” as PRO that would be confusing, as it would be more of a prosumer device.

Exactly. Renaming it to "MacBook" when the 4-port transitions would be good imo.

 

[kobberrød]

Nice thread, has been wondering the same.

I actually think the low-end Macbook Pro is here to stay for some time - the question is in what form.

I know for us here having 2 different types of MBP maybe seems odd and creates unnecessary confusion of a line-up. And a lot of people on this forum thinks that it would be just nicer to just have simple 2 families: Macbook [Air] (for everyone) and Macbook Pro (for pros). However tempting, I don't think that would work for Apple, simply because of a marketing power of a brand Pro. In fact it is more of a consumer device. Just remember that the original 13" MBP started off as the Aluminium Macbook - just a better version of the popular plastic one. That might also be a reason that we have this one making the jump to M1 already - Apple wouldn't miss this crazy shopping period.

So, we will probably still have 2TB model alongside the "proper" 4TB. Which, by the way, thanks to Apple Sillicon will be truly Pro. I think Apple will offer here performance parity with a bigger 16" one for the first time - basically leaving you with a choice only between a screen size (probably with some more gpu option on 16"). Up to this point, smaller MBP were using intel U processors with higher TDP 28W, while the 16" the H processors (45W). I think perfomance/efficiency advancement of Apple chip (call it M1X or whatever) will allow to merge those two categories, bringing perfomance of a "big Pro" also to the small one.

Now, it is interesting to see if it get's updated to 14" just like "mightier" little brother to have a division exactly like today or stays 13". I personally think that for a short term we might see it staying in the current form, at least until to more drastic shake up of a whole line-up, probably including some changes with Air. I really like the idea of looking at low-end 13" as a "better Air". Maybe we will observe the revival of a Macbook brand with a 12" model, then current low-end MBP13 can become Macbook 14"? Even maybe with Apple's intention of ultimately replacing the Air family? (funny, this is exactly what Air has done with Macbook family before).

 

[Bacci]

The 14" MBP is basically the same form factor as the 13" but without rims. I'd assume all 13" are replaced at once.
Apart from 2/4 TB ports, I could see the possibility of a touch enabled screen as a differentiating feature, if all 14" have the same chip.

 

[dasjati]

Just remember that the original 13" MBP started off as the Aluminium Macbook - just a better version of the popular plastic one. That might also be a reason that we have this one making the jump to M1 already - Apple wouldn't miss this crazy shopping period.

Exactly. This slightly misleading name has been around for a long, long time. It must have worked well for Apple. I see it more as a marketing name, like the "Turbo" version of the Porsche electric car

And about the original question: I could totally see a higher-end MBP 14 while the lower end MBP 13 is kept around. At some point in the future they would bring the new form factor down to it – likey they did with the Touchbar.

 

[DHagan4755]

The high-end 13" MacBook Pro will become the 14" MacBook Pro with mini LED display tech & the M1X or whatever Apple decides to brand it. How soon this happens is a good question. My guess is within the next 6 months. I think the 14" & 16" will come out at the same time.

And if I were a betting man, like the "one more thing" event was all about the M1 for the Mac, Apple will make this an event about "mini LED." Thus an announcement might also wrap in the iPad Pro too, as that's also rumored to be gaining mini LED tech.

So, mini LED + new A14X for iPad Pro + M1X for MacBook Pros. There you have it, there you go.

 

[unchecked]

Option 1, the 2 port is in an awkward position, but Apple's market research is probably telling them they 'have' to have a Pro branded machine starting at the $1,299 price point. If nothing else, for every one of those they sell rather than a $999 MacBook Air they are probably making an extra $200 or more pure profit. I can't imagine the fan and a slightly brighter panel add all that much to the bill of materials/ manufacture.

Eventually they might fold it back into the Air, and/or bring the 14" down to ~$1,499 or something, but for the medium term I think it's staying.

Yea the 13" 2-port MBP currently acts as an in-between the fanless Air and the 4-port Pro.

The 13" M1 MBP we're seeing now may eventually become a 14" MBP with 2 ports after we see them roll out the new designs with the 14" (and possibly the 16").

 

[thingstoponder]

Both become 14” with the same port arrangements.

4 port shares specs with the 16” and the 2 port shares specs with the Air like the current M1 models.

I don’t see any indication they will get rid of one or have two different screen sizes.

 

[UltimateSyn]

Yea the 13" 2-port MBP currently acts as an in-between the fanless Air and the 4-port Pro.

The 13" M1 MBP we're seeing now may eventually become a 14" MBP with 2 ports after we see them roll out the new designs with the 14" (and possibly the 16").

Are they *really* going to give you miniLED and the bigger screen at the lower price, though? Have a feeling this will be one of their points to upsell everyone to the $1800+ models.

 

[thenewperson]

Are they *really* going to give you miniLED and the bigger screen at the lower price, though? Have a feeling this will be one of their points to upsell everyone to the $1800+ models.

Yeah, miniLED likely won't come cheap. Can't see a price reduction really. And then we don't know what they'll do for RAM on those models (still LPDDR4X or something more?).

 

[Yebubbleman]

1 and 3 are hard to choose between because they seem like the same thing ?

Now that it’s become “MBA but with active cooling” it seems to have more of a reason to actually stay. They could stand to make it cheaper though ?

1 expressly implies that the 2-port 13" MacBook Pro will continue as such past the point where the 4-port 13" moves over to Apple Silicon as the 14" MacBook Pro. 3 implies any scenario wherein that Mac model changes (either in specs, name, whether or not it gets discontinued or any possible combination therein). The differences between the M1 2-port 13" Pro and the M1 Air are curious. I want to know where the dividing line is between one machine being a better buy than the other and vice versa.

Selling both a 13" and 14" Pro seems very odd to me. Just on case materials alone it would probably be cheaper in the long run to transition the whole thing to 14". I certainly do hope they bring the 4-port into AS otherwise there will be a lot of complaining.

Replacing the 2-port 13" Pro and keeping it alive through the transition is very odd to me! If the Air could safely satisfy the low-end, what was the sense between them having two Apple Silicon Macs on the low-end that are otherwise very similar when the 4-port 13" Pro could've been significantly more powerful (assuming they were able to exceed 2 Thunderbolt ports and 16GB of RAM [which is likely the reason why they didn't do it that way]).

Who said apple was going to a 14" model? If they do, the'll drop the 13, not likely until they power through the transition. Personally anything 12-16 is fine on a laptop for me because when at home, I'm using an external monitor 80 % of the time, and even tho I wear glasses, I can still get work done on 12".

What I do see happening, 2 ports, chips all the same, size and storage become the differentiators. Because non of us know, it will take some time to prove me wrong. ?

Rumors are abound about the 14" MacBook Pro and have been since before "Apple Silicon" was even a buzzword.

The 14" MBP is basically the same form factor as the 13" but without rims. I'd assume all 13" are replaced at once.
Apart from 2/4 TB ports, I could see the possibility of a touch enabled screen as a differentiating feature, if all 14" have the same chip.

Apple won't do touchscreens. They repeatedly express dumbfounded reactions to the mass expectation that they'll be implementing touchscreens on Macs. Not going to happen anytime soon, if ever.

 

[Yebubbleman]

I'm now thinking that if there is a redesign, especially one that ushers in the first Apple Silicon 16" MacBook Pro, the 4-port 13" MacBook Pro will, at the same time, jump to Apple Silicon, upscale to the 14" MacBook Pro and essentially be the same as the 16" MacBook Pro, but smaller (kind of like the split between the 11" iPad Pro and the 12.9" iPad Pro currently). This will increase the performance gap between the Air and the then-14" Pro. The Apple Silicon 2-port 13" MacBook Pro will disappear as will its 4-port Intel Ice Lake counterpart.

I cannot fathom them having the Air, the 2-port 13" Pro, a 4-port 14" Pro, and a 16" Pro. I also cannot fathom them having two classes of either 13" Pro or 14" Pro on the other side of this transition. That made sense to have that many DIFFERENT notebook models under Intel; it does NOT make sense under Apple Silicon.

I suppose they could merely give the 14" screen treatment to the 2-port 13" Pro and just not do a 4-port 13" or 14" MacBook Pro with Apple Silicon, but that would seem like it would piss off a decent amount of fans of the 4-port 13" MacBook Pro.

For those arguing price-point logic (and it's not an unfair point to be making considering this is Tim Cook's Apple), I could see Apple offering the 13"/14" MacBook Pro with two different chip options, which might justify different price points; but I don't see them being distinctly different models the way the 2-port and 4-port 13" MacBook Pros have been since 2016.

 

[Yebubbleman]

Another thought just occurred to me. The M1 2-port 13" MacBook Pro is designated "MacBook Pro (13-inch, M1, 2020)" and not "MacBook Pro (13-inch, M1, 2020, Two Thunderbolt Ports)" to distinguish from a 4-port version. It's direct predecessor was, after all, "MacBook Pro (13-inch, 2020, Two Thunderbolt 3 Ports)", to distinguish itself from "MacBook Pro (13-inch, 2020, Four Thunderbolt 3 Ports)", which is still sold today. So, I'm thinking what will happen is either:

- The next 13" MacBook Pro, if not a 14" MacBook Pro, will expand to four ports thereby finishing the transition as far as 13" MacBook Pros are concerned.

OR

- Apple Silicon 13" MacBook Pros will just remain be 2-port; give or take the addition of a much more powerful 4-port 14" MacBook Pro (that actually replaces the current Ice Lake 4-port model)

Either way, Apple's designation doesn't imply a second variant. It could be that when the model year is 2021, that will change. But either way, the sub-16" section of the MacBook Pro line seems nebulous going forward.

 

[MarkAtl]

16” MBP 4 port
14” MBP 4 port
13” MBA 2 port
12” MB/iBook 1 port

 

[Falhófnir]

Another thought just occurred to me. The M1 2-port 13" MacBook Pro is designated "MacBook Pro (13-inch, M1, 2020)" and not "MacBook Pro (13-inch, M1, 2020, Two Thunderbolt Ports)" to distinguish from a 4-port version. It's direct predecessor was, after all, "MacBook Pro (13-inch, 2020, Two Thunderbolt 3 Ports)", to distinguish itself from "MacBook Pro (13-inch, 2020, Four Thunderbolt 3 Ports)", which is still sold today. So, I'm thinking what will happen is either:

- The next 13" MacBook Pro, if not a 14" MacBook Pro, will expand to four ports thereby finishing the transition as far as 13" MacBook Pros are concerned.

OR

- Apple Silicon 13" MacBook Pros will just remain be 2-port; give or take the addition of a much more powerful 4-port 14" MacBook Pro (that actually replaces the current Ice Lake 4-port model)

Either way, Apple's designation doesn't imply a second variant. It could be that when the model year is 2021, that will change. But either way, the sub-16" section of the MacBook Pro line seems nebulous going forward.

Presumably the current 4 port model would be “MacBook Pro (13-inch, M1X, 2021)” if nothing else changes, so even if there’s an M2, 2021 MacBook Pro the chip (whatever it’s designated) will be the differentiating factor there?

I’m much more convinced the 4 port pro will become the rumoured 14” mini LED model, though. It would be extremely odd to add the 14” while keeping the bifurcated 13” lineup.

 

[Yebubbleman]

16” MBP 4 port
14” MBP 4 port
13” MBA 2 port
12” MB/iBook 1 port

What happens to the 2-port 13" MacBook Pro then?

Also, there won't be another 12" MacBook with 1 port. That flopped and not just because the Intel chip and keyboard sucked.

Presumably the current 4 port model would be “MacBook Pro (13-inch, M1X, 2021)” if nothing else changes, so even if there’s an M2, 2021 MacBook Pro the chip (whatever it’s designated) will be the differentiating factor there?

I’m much more convinced the 4 port pro will become the rumoured 14” mini LED model, though. It would be extremely odd to add the 14” while keeping the bifurcated 13” lineup.

So, you're thinking the lineup will be 2-port 13" Air, 2-port 13" Pro, 4-port 14" Pro, 4-port 16" Pro? I'm starting to think more and more that the 2-port 13" Pro will live on while the 4-port 13" Pro becomes a 14" model.

 

[Falhófnir]

What happens to the 2-port 13" MacBook Pro then?

Also, there won't be another 12" MacBook with 1 port. That flopped and not just because the Intel chip and keyboard sucked.

So, you're thinking the lineup will be 2-port 13" Air, 2-port 13" Pro, 4-port 14" Pro, 4-port 16" Pro? I'm starting to think more and more that the 2-port 13" Pro will live on while the 4-port 13" Pro becomes a 14" model.

Yep I think that’s what it will look like at least for a while, I think the whole lineup is ripe for a rationalisation at some point though. Something like a super miniaturised 13” MacBook Air (along the lines of the XPS13 or the 12” MacBook with greatly reduced bezels) alongside a 15” MacBook Air and 14/16 inch MacBook Pro’s would be a nice clean lineup IMO.

 

[MarkAtl]

What happens to the 2-port 13" MacBook Pro then?

Also, there won't be another 12" MacBook with 1 port. That flopped and not just because the Intel chip and keyboard sucked.

So, you're thinking the lineup will be 2-port 13" Air, 2-port 13" Pro, 4-port 14" Pro, 4-port 16" Pro? I'm starting to think more and more that the 2-port 13" Pro will live on while the 4-port 13" Pro becomes a 14" model.

I have a 12” MB 2017. The CPU was and still is fine. The keyboard is acceptable, but that would be replaced anyway.

Perhaps a 12” MB will return with 2 ports, or perhaps it gets squeezed out by the iPad Pro with keyboard and trackpad.

I fail to see the long term need for a 13” 2 port MBP when the MBA is so close in specs and performance.

 

[Yebubbleman]

Yep I think that’s what it will look like at least for a while, I think the whole lineup is ripe for a rationalisation at some point though. Something like a super miniaturised 13” MacBook Air (along the lines of the XPS13 or the 12” MacBook with greatly reduced bezels) alongside a 15” MacBook Air and 14/16 inch MacBook Pro’s would be a nice clean lineup IMO.

What's the need for a miniaturized 13" Air in the profile of the 12"? Like, why does that need to happen?

I have a 12” MB 2017. The CPU was and still is fine. The keyboard is acceptable, but that would be replaced anyway.

Perhaps a 12” MB will return with 2 ports, or perhaps it gets squeezed out by the iPad Pro with keyboard and trackpad.

I fail to see the long term need for a 13” 2 port MBP when the MBA is so close in specs and performance.

I have the same MacBook. The keyboard is crappy and only tolerable if I use it for short periods of time. And honestly, that's not even my primary complaints with it. Also, you need to make the Mac thicker to fix the keyboard as has been proven across all four Mac portables that had their keyboard fixed. I fail to see the need for a 12" MacBook to return (and I think Apple is more or less in line with me there given that they transitioned their "MacBook" efforts into the current generation of MacBook Air).

 

[Sunshower]

I don't think Apple will do this for a variety of reasons, but I agree with some that there is space available for a 14" or even a 15" Air.

A line-up of...

Consumer:
12"(?)/13" Air
14/15"(?) Air

Pro:
14" Pro
16" Pro

...makes more sense than the current mess to me. There are likely marketing reasons why the naming scheme is so crooked at the minute, with the 13" 2-port Pro being a strange outlier since 2016. They've probably done studies which showed people wanted to purchase a "Pro" and would pay extra for what is a very similar spec machine to the Air with a few extra niceties.

It could also be a 14/15" Air would eat too much into the possible 14" Pro territory too. I'd love to see it materialise, but I think for the next couple of years we will have a weird line-up.

It seems like a trivial issue but as someone looking for a prosumer laptop between an Air and a 16" Pro it's hard discerning what the best purchasing decision is, especially with the line-up distorted as it is. Hopefully things will simplify...