Has Apple passed its peak?

[skaertus]

British newspaper The Guardian published an article on Nov 7, written by Apple ex-employee Dan Crow, claims that Apple has reached its peak and is on downhill right now.

The article can be read here: http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2012/nov/07/peak-apple

The very controversial article has been the focus of attention of other high-profile publications such as Forbes (http://www.forbes.com/sites/haydnshaughnessy/2012/11/09/have-we-reached-peak-apple/) and Fox News (http://www.foxnews.com/tech/2012/11/07/it-all-downhill-from-here-former-apple-engineer-writes/).

The article follows a fall in the prices of Apple shares, something that may (or may not) indicate that the company is on a declining trend.

What do you think?

 

[AppleDApp]

I wouldn't expect a completely new category of product anytime soon.

 

[VenusianSky]

Apple has obviously been in the process of transforming into a brand name electronics company, rather than a niche computer product company. Popularity of the iPhone made that happen.

 

[A Hebrew]

Apple's foot is so deep in the educational world (k-12) computer wise I do not see them peaking just yet. I believe with the inclusion of iPads AND Macs in schools Apple will only continue to grow with time. People go with what they know normally.

 

[nuckinfutz]

Nope.

Crow is incorrect (sour grapes?)

The mobile sector worldwide is enough to keep Apple in the black and they'll be looking for additional opportunities to create additional "Billion dollar product lines"

 

[AppleDApp]

Apple's foot is so deep in the educational world (k-12) computer wise I do not see them peaking just yet. I believe with the inclusion of iPads AND Macs in schools Apple will only continue to grow with time. People go with what they know normally.

Is Apple really that involved in the education world? In all the schools I've gone too I've never seen Macs used widely. They are only used in the animation and graphic design classes. I've had a a few teachers who would use them to code but they weren't by any means easily accessible to students.

 

[ixodes]

Passed it's peak?

I'd like to think not.

Yet certain indicators do make me wonder just what Apple is up to, behind the scenes. While obviously it's not something they disclose, nor should they, the end result is revealed in the products we buy.

Running an enterprise like Apple is far more difficult than many realize, it's easy to sit back and criticize. The bottom line is Apple is very well staffed with brilliant people in nearly all positions. What they don't have, they can bring in due to their nearly unlimited financial resources. It's an enviable position to be in.

Hopefully going forward they will overcome what challenges loom large at the moment and emerge stronger, better, and with the kind of world class products that they are capable of creating.

That's my take on it.

 

[roadbloc]

For me? Probably. Their approach to their products no longer satisfies me. But I'm sure Apple will continue making money.

 

[76ShovelHead]

Apple's foot is so deep in the educational world (k-12) computer wise I do not see them peaking just yet. I believe with the inclusion of iPads AND Macs in schools Apple will only continue to grow with time. People go with what they know normally.

Hmmm I'm not so sure.

Apple definitely has the education market with the iPad, with some districts even dispensing iPod Touches. But the use of Macintosh computers should start to decline, especially since the discontinuation of polycarbonate MacBook and now the thinner iMacs. I just don't see the MacBook airs and new iMacs as kid friendly but rather delicate and expensive toys. I know if I ran a school I wouldn't be buying them. But I'm probably wrong.

 

[mrsir2009]

I don't like how with the iDevices they're switching to six month (or less?) product cycles that are confusing and take value away from the products, rather than the simple 1 year product cycles that are nice Not to mention there are WAAY to many products in Apple's product line now. The iPad 2 can go, the iPhone 4 can go, etc...

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Hmmm I'm not so sure.

Apple definitely has the education market with the iPad, with some districts even dispensing iPod Touches. But the use of Macintosh computers should start to decline, especially since the discontinuation of polycarbonate MacBook and now the thinner iMacs. I just don't see the MacBook airs and new iMacs as kid friendly but rather delicate and expensive toys. I know if I ran a school I wouldn't be buying them. But I'm probably wrong.

I'd actually say that the MacBook Air is more durable than the white MacBook. Lets say a kid drops their MacBook... The MacBook Air has a SSD, which is much more durable than a hard drive. The MacBook Air has a more solid unibody construction, so no cracking issues that the white MacBooks were notorious for. And the MacBook Air is much lighter, meaning that if it gets dropped it wouldn't hit the ground as hard because the velocity it reached would be lower.

 

[nuckinfutz]

I don't like how with the iDevices they're switching to six month (or less?) product cycles that are confusing and take value away from the products, rather than the simple 1 year product cycles that are nice Not to mention there are WAAY to many products in Apple's product line now. The iPad 2 can go, the iPhone 4 can go, etc...

I doubt they're switching to a shorter cycle for iDevices. The iPad 4 was an anomaly. These products really need that year to incubate and wait for new supplies.

As far as the lineup next year. I'd like Apple to cleanup the line.


2013

$899 - 11" Macbook Air

$1099 - 13" Macbook Air

$1399 - 13" Retina Macbook Pro

$1899 - 15" Retina Macbook Pro


Pricing based on lower cost Retina displays from Sharp and LG, smaller batteries and better commodity pricing on SSD storage.

 

[McGiord]

Peak of what?
Apple has demonstrated a couple things, it is no longer a one product company like it was when SJ was ousted (Macs), and their efforts to do get into new products were not successful due to some technical and product design mismanagement. Nowadays they are successful with hardware software apps content and will soon have tvs.
They also have enough cash to buy any emerging technology worth exploiting and get the patents needed to continue their success.
All of us, and those bloggers are not business managers and have no clue how to run an enterprise like Apple, if Apple don't have any of the current top heads and have only SJ (assuming he is still here with us) Apple might not be as successful as it currently is.
I find good that they make some mistakes therefore they get their act together and continue delivering nice products for us to use.
Another very relevant area of the business is software based, integrating the hardware is something they do know how to do, following a good design led by you know who and now it is getting into the user interface and software side of it. Remember what apple does best is stealing good ideas and making them a product that is way better, they have been doing it for decades, and if as of this days they do not know how to do it, they indeed deserve the fate prognosis as described by these bloggers. Really? Do you believe they don't know how to do it? Do you still believe that without Steve they can't? That SJ was not wise enough and knowing its destiny he didn't have a succession plan in place? What has happened with the Apple University? No one knows... unless you are part of it

 

[tekno]

I have no real knowledge of the subject other than being an Apple customer.

I don't think they're on the slide, but I certainly think they're coasting. I suspect Windows 8 isn't going to steal much from OS X, but I suspect over the next few years, Android will continue to eat into Apple's profits. I think they're at their peak, and I reckon they'll start to slide over the next few years.

Personally, I think the iPod, iPhone, iPad and iTunes as Apple's big success, and it all comes from one idea which, I suspect, was a fluke. As other manufacturers move forward, Apple (who don't appear to be moving on) will look more and more out of date - as happened with RIM.

 

[Liquorpuki]

I wouldn't expect a completely new category of product anytime soon.

What about those TV rumors that just came back?

 

[tekno]

and will soon have tvs.

For me, this is my biggest worry. I really can't see this taking off. If ever Apple really do release a TV, that'll be the sign of them branching out too much into areas they don't understand.

 

[nuckinfutz]

I have no real knowledge of the subject other than being an Apple customer.

I don't think they're on the slide, but I certainly think they're coasting. I suspect Windows 8 isn't going to steal much from OS X, but I suspect over the next few years, Android will continue to eat into Apple's profits. I think they're at their peak, and I reckon they'll start to slide over the next few years.

Personally, I think the iPod, iPhone, iPad and iTunes as Apple's big success, and it all comes from one idea which, I suspect, was a fluke. As other manufacturers move forward, Apple (who don't appear to be moving on) will look more and more out of date - as happened with RIM.

Android isn't a threat to Apple they're not eating Apple's profits now. Apple is selling every device they can manufacture. Microsoft is still a larger threat. Android is a carrier creation. Note that Android has not be able to become entrenched in any other area other than the smartphone. It's failed as a media device (Google TV) it's failed as a tablet device (selling at cost) and it's failed as a media player (Samsung Galaxy iPod competitor). The carriers created Android. The consumers never cared and they likely still don't beyond getting duped in their local carrier store to buy whatever delivers the most commission.

Meanwhile Apple is doing what the competition isn't

Rapidly it's Worldwide presence with stores. Building more data-centers to manage their growing media infrastructure.

The next thing we're going to see is Apple moving to to more vertical structure. They've amassed the engineering talent now to design their own SoC. I suspect we'll see even more movement towards Apple acquiring the resources to deliver more autonomy. They appear to be getting more cozy with TSMC for foundry work. The profits in the future won't be about selling you a movie it's going to be about leveraging huge quantities of product where much of it is controlled by your own supply chain vendors.

iTV blah blah blah. Apple doesn't have to have success in TV to make money.

 

[McGiord]

iTV will get them more sources of profits, if they can run iOS apps, they get into the gaming world, and they are currently getting some out of tv shows, movies and music videos that people but from iTunes, they can if they indeed nail it.
Sony did a lot of these in the last 4 decades, why Apple can't?

 

[AppleDApp]

What about those TV rumors that just came back?

That idea has been in the rumour mill for so long and there is nothing concrete about it yet. It could take another couple years to be released. Also I wouldn't label a new product category seeing as Apple already has a TV product.

 

[McGiord]

That idea has been in the rumour mill for so long and there is nothing concrete about it yet. It could take another couple years to be released. Also I wouldn't label a new product category seeing as Apple already has a TV product.

Well, how long did took apple to release a handheld device(Newton), then the Motorla RCKR and the other attempts, to finally get the iPhone, and after some iterations the iPad and all the other stuff they have, they can make it something considered different from what we are used to and disruptive to the status quo.
They did it to the mainframe computers and created the PC market in the 70s, then in the 80s the command prompt was shocked with the GUI, then portable music players and the music industry, to some extend some of the cable subscriptions had been affected with iTunes (not as the other things), and the smartphones, the tablets, and why not the TVa and the console gaming? Why not?

 

[AppleDApp]

Well, how long did took apple to release a handheld device(Newton), then the Motorla RCKR and the other attempts, to finally get the iPhone, and after some iterations the iPad and all the other stuff they have, they can make it something considered different from what we are used to and disruptive to the status quo.
They did it to the mainframe computers and created the PC market in the 70s, then in the 80s the command prompt was shocked with the GUI, then portable music players and the music industry, to some extend some of the cable subscriptions had been affected with iTunes (not as the other things), and the smartphones, the tablets, and why not the TVa and the console gaming? Why not?

Valid points

 

[Michaelgtrusa]

Innovation takes time.

 

[MonkeySee....]

There is no "peak" in tech. It will always keep progressing.

Apple won't suddenly stop making/designing stuff.

 

[Huntn]

To say Apple has passed it's peak seems a bit distengeniouse. Currently they are on an incredible streak of not luck, but talent and innovation. We'll have to wait and see how long it takes them to come up with the next great thing. I assume they are working on something. Anyone know what that might be?

 

[G51989]

Hmmm I'm not so sure.

Apple definitely has the education market with the iPad, with some districts even dispensing iPod Touches. But the use of Macintosh computers should start to decline, especially since the discontinuation of polycarbonate MacBook and now the thinner iMacs. I just don't see the MacBook airs and new iMacs as kid friendly but rather delicate and expensive toys. I know if I ran a school I wouldn't be buying them. But I'm probably wrong.

With the iPad, yes. Though we could see that change with the cheaper Android tablets like the Nexus. School districts these days are pressed for cash.

As far as Macintosh computers go, at least in the districts I grew up in ( all of which had zero money problems, I think mine actually had a problem with to much money, so they randomly renovated the entire high school campus for 54 million, even though the buildings were only 15 years old ) were a very rare sight, you saw some older ones in the kiddie labs, and a couple G3 laptops. But everything was Dells and Compaqs.

I've been to the local high school before helping out a friend ( he's an basic computer science teacher, ugh ). And it was all a sea of dells. According to him at least, the Mac is leaving the K-12 market due to extreme cost. Look at it from their perspective, you can buy 3 Dells for the price of one Mac,( they refuse to go Mini, they iMac the macs they do have. They buy 300 dollar Dell mini towers, with 16 inch monitors, and I think they get a HUGE discount on the monitors. ) and Dell has a better warranty than Apple. And the Dell can be repaired in house, the Apple cannot. They do have a large number of iPads however, and Apple is probably going to be strong in that market for a long time,



However, Apple probably is at its peak, its not a computer company anymore of course, it's going down the same path SONY did. It'll be the name brand to buy for awhile until someone else comes along. Its just the way things go.

I don't understand all these " Apple is doomed! " Threads, they'll be fine. But they are at the point where there are a group of people who just will buy an ' i ' device no matter how good or bad it is.

 

[Uplift]

Totally agree with what the guy said about education, as someone who works in education i'm seeing a very big increase in the use of apple products at work. I'm always being shipped off to Apple training sessions, and we're constantly buying in more apple equipment, a trend that is happening across our local authority.

I don't think they are on a decline, but i think they've realised people will buy their products regardless, so they can release half baked products (non retina mini, the iphone 5 'catch up' phone) they don't destroy the competition, they bring their products inline of what was out a year a go... this could eventually cause their decline if people start to lose faith in their products...