In business circles, one of the most miraculous success stories of the previous century is the story of Starbucks. The company earned its legendary status not by invention of a new product, but by the rare transformation of human culture. .... Coffee is still coffee. They didnt change the product as much as they changed the customer.
Consumer electronics companies face a similar challenge. Its hard enough to invent a better way to do things. But the most difficult challenge is getting consumers to accept the change.
Since the dawn of the PC revolution, for example, a huge number of better ideas for doing things have come along, and have been crushed by consumer apathy. Keyboards are a particularly hazardous market. Nearly everyone agrees that QWERTY keyboards dont make sense, and that there must be a better way. Hundreds or possibly thousands of small startups have emerged over the decades to solve the problem of the clunky QWERTY keyboard. Yet all have failed. Why? Because were all mastered existing keyboards, and were not going to change.
Visionary companies like Apple have better ideas for how we do just about everything relating to computers and media. They know they can invent and build the products. The big problem is convincing us to use them.
Ive written in this space before about how Google is systematically nudging us to accept less privacy. Now Im going to tell you how Apple is transforming you and me and softening our resistance to the gadget future they envision for us all.
1. Virtual keyboards
People hate the idea of giving up their physical keyboards for on-screen keyboards. But I believe Apple wants to move us all to on-screen keyboards not only for phones, but mobile devices and even desktop computers. If Apple were to introduce an all-screen desktop PC today, it would be rejected wholesale by the public. But in a few years, well all be standing in line to buy them. How will they do it?
Apple led the first wave of all-screen cell phones with the introduction of its iPhone two and a half years ago. Everybody grumbled about the cramped, on-screen keyboard, but most of us expected in those early days that someone would ship a wireless physical keyboard peripheral for the iPhone. Were still waiting. Where is it?
You can buy iPhone accessories of every description, from iPhone-compatible fireplaces to gaming rigs to telephoto lenses. What you cant buy is a fold-out Bluetooth keyboard, which is a common add-on for other phones.
You may have heard about the iType full-size keyboard, which is billed as the first-ever full-size keyboard for the iPhone (and iPod touch) when it ships later this year. What you may not have heard is that you cant use it directly in iPhone applications. You have to use the iType application to do your typing, then you can copy and paste the text into another application, or push a button to send it to e-mail. It cant be used to type URLs, fill out online forms, type directly in e-mail, type documents directly in native applications, add items to your calendar or any other task that involves simply using the keyboard with your iPhone.
Dont blame ION, the company that makes the keyboard, and which is trying to satisfy demand for a physical iPhone keyboard. Instead, blame Apple. The company has gone out of its way to block physical keyboards from hitting the market.
Apple could build and ship its own physical iPhone keyboard, and theyd probably make a bundle on it. But theyre thinking long-term.
My belief is that Apple blocks iPhone keyboards as part of its user-transformation project. Theyre forcing those of us who want to use an iPhone to accept the on-screen keyboard. Later this year, when the rumored Apple touch tablet is likely to ship, everyone will be so happy with a larger version of the iPhones on-screen keyboard. Had they shipped the tablet first, we no doubt would have complained about that keyboard. But since theyve lowered our expectations with the iPhone keyboard, well love the tablets.
I think the initial tablet will feature a 10-inch touch screen. The keyboard will probably span the screen. Then theyll ship a 13-inch tablet. Then a 15-inch. By the time they ship a 27-inch desktop touch tablet (used at an angle like a drafting board), well be just giddy with excitement about how wonderful the on-screen keyboard is.
2. Mobile cable box and DVR
Right now, those of us who get cable TV and use TiVo or other DVR devices, are used to all that gear being lashed physically to our TVs and walls. Sure, those big, clunky, ugly boxes look like Radio Shack DIY projects, but we dont know anything better.
In the future, well use our cell phones and touch tablets to browse, find, record or schedule for recording all our TV and moviesand often watch them on these mobile devices, as well as on our giant, flat-screen TVs. But when were not watching them on the mobile devices, well use those gadgets to control and store the media.
Apple led the mob that practically killed off the audio CD by getting us all into the habit of shopping for music in iTunes, rather than at Tower Records. Their tablets will lead a similar attack on renting movies at Blockbuster. Instead, well download movies from Netflix and iTunes via our tablets. I believe theyll also drive the Huluization of television, which is where TV is something that exists in a searchable online database, and shows will be something you subscribe to.
One by one, well all wake up and wonder why were still paying the cable company.
3. Apps on demand
Sure, weve long ago accepted the idea of buying software online and downloading it. But the iPhone, and later the tablet will change our thinking on software even further. Rather than thinking of a software application as some massive, do-everything product, well increasingly view software as apps, widgets or small features that are cheap and instantly available all the time.
Were already experiencing this with the iPhone. Its getting to the point where its easier to download an app than find one already installed on your own phone.
Apples iPhone, and later tablet, will acclimate us all to this model, and well come to prefer it for desktop computing as well.
Five years from now, your PC will be an all-touch, no-keyboard giant tablet that replaces your cable box and DVR and facilitates the downloading and installation of software one small feature at a time.
Apple is already working on the technology. Anddont look nowbut Apple is working on you, too.
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