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hajime

macrumors 604
Original poster
Jul 23, 2007
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Is the renew cycle of MacBook Pro predictable like iPhone?
 

TinyMito

macrumors 6502a
Nov 1, 2021
863
1,226
People should stop trying to futureproof, any current generation is the best you can get and will last for years. Otherwise you will wait forever and also stop trying to be first world on everything. FOMO... urg
 
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barkomatic

macrumors 601
Aug 8, 2008
4,560
2,916
Manhattan
If you check out the buyers guide (link at the top) you'll see it's only been 170 days since the last release and the average number of days between releases is 391 -- so the new models do not seem imminent. However, you'll also notice that within that average the release windows vary greatly.

I think you can feel confident if you buy a MBP today that there won't be another update this year. However, also consider that the new MacBook Air is rumored for the second or third quarter of this year.
 
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hajime

macrumors 604
Original poster
Jul 23, 2007
7,927
1,312
If you check out the buyers guide (link at the top) you'll see it's only been 170 days since the last release and the average number of days between releases is 391 -- so the new models do not seem imminent. However, you'll also notice that within that average the release windows vary greatly.

I think you can feel confident if you buy a MBP today that there won't be another update this year. However, also consider that the new MacBook Air is rumored for the second or third quarter of this year.

Thanks. Last year I once considered the new Air rumored to be released earlier this year as I recall but nothing happened. Now I know that I would need 16" or larger so Air is out of the question. Then, configurations I am interested in require waiting in the queue and M1 Ultra is released although in desktop machine. Then, WWDC is announced. If I recall correctly, they announced new hardware few years ago at WWDC.
 

Sterkenburg

macrumors 6502a
Oct 27, 2016
556
553
Japan
It's difficult to predict what the Apple Silicon upgrade cycles will be like at the moment: (1) there are no precedents, (2) we are still in the middle of a global supply chain crisis.

The M1 Pro/Max MBPs have come out just a few months ago and we don't even have certain news on the vanilla M2. Even when new models are announced, because of the supply issues it often takes several weeks for orders to be fulfilled. If I had to place a bet I'd say it will be a while before you can get your hands on a refreshed machine.

If you need a computer now buy it now, there are refurbished models available too.
 

safari70

macrumors member
Jan 10, 2006
87
30
ON
I’m in the same situation as OP, still getting by using an “obsolete” MP5.1 (running Monterey perfectly well), but will need a laptop soon (16”)…

I’m not in a rush so I’ll be waiting for WWDC… I’m not expecting an SoC upgrade in the 16”, but iirc few years ago they did a small update 6 months after the previous model so who knows!
 

yabeweb

macrumors 6502a
Jun 25, 2021
824
1,742
I ordered last month a 14 MBP, best decision ever!

Will a new one come out "soon"? May be, will I need the updated internals? Not for very long time, Does it do everything i want to? yes and then some more.

As always it boils down to Need / Want.

Need buy now, Want, wait for whatever you want it to have.
 
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Saturn1217

macrumors 65816
Apr 28, 2008
1,360
1,048
To answer your question directly. No. It is not predictable like the iPhone. Macbook Pro updates don't always happen at specific times of year and there is no guarantee of yearly updates like with the iPhone. I would not be surprised if we don't see another Macbook Pro update (excluding some budget MBP) until the end of 2023. They seem to be settling on a 2 year upgrade cycle for the apple silicon machines, although it is too early to tell for sure.
 

hajime

macrumors 604
Original poster
Jul 23, 2007
7,927
1,312
I ordered last month a 14 MBP, best decision ever!

Will a new one come out "soon"? May be, will I need the updated internals? Not for very long time, Does it do everything i want to? yes and then some more.

As always it boils down to Need / Want.

Need buy now, Want, wait for whatever you want it to have.

Yes, I need to buy now but need to choose between M1 Pro and M1 Max. Software I use don't have M1 version yet and companies have been saying that they are working on it since last year but there is no announcement on timeframe. If those software were optimized now, sure I go ahead to order a M1 Max. If it takes another 1-2 more years for these software to be optimized, M1 Pro may be better as a cheaper temporary machine. Nobody knows when software will catch up. That is the problem.
 

zachlegomaniac

macrumors 6502a
Sep 20, 2008
806
370
If you were considering the MBA last year, and it would have met your needs, the 16" M1 Pro will blow your mind. Buy it and enjoy it. You're good.
 

hajime

macrumors 604
Original poster
Jul 23, 2007
7,927
1,312
I have tried a 16" M1 Pro last year. I know it is quite good except for memory leak issue.
 

yabeweb

macrumors 6502a
Jun 25, 2021
824
1,742
Yes, I need to buy now but need to choose between M1 Pro and M1 Max. Software I use don't have M1 version yet and companies have been saying that they are working on it since last year but there is no announcement on timeframe. If those software were optimized now, sure I go ahead to order a M1 Max. If it takes another 1-2 more years for these software to be optimized, M1 Pro may be better as a cheaper temporary machine. Nobody knows when software will catch up. That is the problem.
I’d just go pro then, I means from outside is a clear cut, I need a computer now, I cannot wait tohave program updated to take full advantage…

so save money now and buy a higher specs machine in 2-3 years.
 

spiderman0616

Suspended
Aug 1, 2010
5,670
7,499
I'm a sucker for a redesign, so I use redesign years to decide if I really need to upgrade or not. I was really impressed with what they're packing into these new Pros, so I jumped in. I'm hoping this 14" model is the one I stick with for a few years now.
 

hajime

macrumors 604
Original poster
Jul 23, 2007
7,927
1,312
My previous MacBook Pro stored 20 years worth files. Total size should have been below 512GB as I divided the internal 1TB SSD equally for Bootcamp and Mac OS. If I don’t need most of these files stored locally on a new MacBook Pro and if I just go for 16" M1 Pro 16GB this time with possible trade in later, will 512GB be sufficient as long as I get a very fast external SSD or NAS so I could access previously stored files? I recall some of you mentioned that I should have some spare storage space for swap when memory is running low. Is it still better to get the 1TB version rather than spend the money on very fast external drive or NAS?

I tried a 16" MacBook Pro M1 Pro before. I like the quietness and good screen compared with high ends Lenovo laptops. However, I would hope Apple would make the next version brighter.
 
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Ifti

macrumors 601
Dec 14, 2010
4,037
2,604
UK
I dont see another update this year. In fact, I ordered my M1 Max just last week - still waiting on delivery for another few weeks of course!.......
 

spiderman0616

Suspended
Aug 1, 2010
5,670
7,499
I dont see another update this year. In fact, I ordered my M1 Max just last week - still waiting on delivery for another few weeks of course!.......
I agree--I think there would be some leaked schematics by now. If there are new MBPs this year, it will be a refresh of the guts, but not a redesign. And I'm with you--I just bought my 14" M1 Pro on Saturday. :)
 

Diablo360

macrumors 6502
Jun 8, 2009
250
101
Probably not this year since it was just released not to long ago. Maybe next spring/summer/fall would be my guess
 

Appletoni

Suspended
Mar 26, 2021
443
177
I’m in the same situation as OP, still getting by using an “obsolete” MP5.1 (running Monterey perfectly well), but will need a laptop soon (16”)…

I’m not in a rush so I’ll be waiting for WWDC… I’m not expecting an SoC upgrade in the 16”, but iirc few years ago they did a small update 6 months after the previous model so who knows!
It will come, the MacBook Pro M2 Ultra.
Improved OS, much lower watt usage and much lesser heat.
 
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