How long will 2019 MacBook Pro be able to update to latest OS?

[mac_in_tosh]

I'm trying to decide some things (battery replacement, etc.) regarding my 2019 Intel MacBook Pro currently running Sonoma. I don't think Apple provides any official update commitments so I'd like to have some idea, based on the experience of people here, how long this laptop will be able to update to the latest OS. Note that that's a different question than how long Apple will continue to provide updates for older OS's, as discussed in other threads. From what I've read, more security patches are done on the latest OS.

Thanks.

 

[GMShadow]

Apple's been sticking to 5 years of support post end of sale of late. If they stick with that, you'd expect it to get macOS 15, maybe 16 (depends on which 2019 MBP) but not 17.

That said, no one knows what Apple's support timeframe is going to be as far as offering new major versions for Intel. Technically they could make 14 the last version, and say the 2 years of security patches counts. Your guess is as good as mine.

 

[startergo]

You may also look at the Intel management engine support. As soon as it drops a CPU Apple will follow.

 

[Ilikecheese_91]

I'm on the same boat.
I managed to send mine in right at the end of my AppleCare window and got a refurbished unit.(I spilled beer on it...). Last wwdc I was nervous to see the compatibility list. This year will be no different and I'll be surprised if our laptops make the good list.

Recently I've noticed it's running hotter than usual and occasional lag. A reinstall of macOS fixes something etc for a moment. While doing thermal paste and pads I wondered if it would be smart to start looking into replacement parts, just to have when something does go bad or breaks.
Sure, Linux can replace macOS entirely on them once support ends both from Apple and third-party apps. It's not the same.

 

[okkibs]

Sonoma might already have been the last MacOS. Apple is dropping Intel support aggressively, they no longer sell anything Intel and might require 2020 Intel Macs for the Sonoma successor. Maybe 2019 models are still included this year but then that is likely the last MacOS your Mac will see.

 

[aj_niner]

My guess is the last Security Update will be received in 2027.

This is when I'll replace it with a 2028 MBP 16" M8 Pro with replaceable battery.