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How long would MacBooks last, now after ARM..
- Thread starter Rednow
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I mean, it will continue to work regardless of what Apple releases until the hardware in your Macbook fails. Some people think Apple will provide 2 more OS updates before releasing only security updates, based off of the PowerPC to Intel transition in 2005. I personally think it's reasonable to expect at least 4 more OS updates given how different the market is today. There are over 100 million Intel-based Mac users today. As greedy as Apple is, I don't think they will tell a majority of them to take it up the butt after 2 years.
I bought a powermac g5 in 2005 and used it until 2010 just fine. I wouldn't have been even to tell apple made a transition if I didn't read up on tech. And I work with graphics software for a living. It was really nice getting an i7 MacBook Pro in 2010 though. Skipped all the core due nonsense.
Others have mentioned OS support. In addition, Apple typically provides 7 years of repair support.
Based on the unspoken agenda that is referred to indirectly in the WWDC presentation, they want to iterate the Mac more often. I suspect we will see lifespans that are similar to the iPad support model. That is assuming they iterate similarly to the frequency they update iPads. If they do it more often, we may see the lifespans shrink, to keep the number of supported models in check. Depending on the specific iPad model, some were supported for a long time, while others didn't (I am looking at you iPad version 3) last nearly as long. I imagine that the software support will stick to the same roughly 7 year time-frame, but for hardware...
Rich S.
Rich S.
Apple plans on transitioning everything over in the next 2-3 years. If bought new at the tail end, an Intel Mac will likely have two additional years of support. The machine will probably run 2+ years beyond that. A Mac built today can easily last 7 years. Probably a good 10 years, if you need them to and they are well taken care of. Very few people need the latest operating system. I upgrade every 2-3 iterations for stability purposes.
I would expect macOS for Intel machines to be supported for at least 5 years from the last date of sale of the very last Intel Mac. That would mean at least 4 new macOS versions that support Intel after the last Intel Mac is sold. The hardware will, of course, last even longer.
I do not expect Apple will shorten the useful life of Macs by switching to Apple Silicon. They may indeed bring out new chips more frequently than Intel has, but the shorter useful lifespan of smartphones is driven by factors that don't apply to the far more mature desktop/laptop PC market. PC-buying businesses and individuals are not going to embrace the idea of replacing their PCs every 2-3 years, and there aren't enough features to be added to lure people into buying more frequently - "improved/more cameras" (other than moving the webcam from 720p to 1080p) isn't going to sell a whole lot of Macs. Apple will almost certainly introduce features that aren't provided by Intel machines - that's one of the key advantages of producing their own silicon. However, I expect we'll see many of those features come with the first generation or two of Apple chips, in order to make the "Apple Silicon Difference" obvious (Face ID, for example), rather than trickle in on a gradual basis.
I do not expect Apple will shorten the useful life of Macs by switching to Apple Silicon. They may indeed bring out new chips more frequently than Intel has, but the shorter useful lifespan of smartphones is driven by factors that don't apply to the far more mature desktop/laptop PC market. PC-buying businesses and individuals are not going to embrace the idea of replacing their PCs every 2-3 years, and there aren't enough features to be added to lure people into buying more frequently - "improved/more cameras" (other than moving the webcam from 720p to 1080p) isn't going to sell a whole lot of Macs. Apple will almost certainly introduce features that aren't provided by Intel machines - that's one of the key advantages of producing their own silicon. However, I expect we'll see many of those features come with the first generation or two of Apple chips, in order to make the "Apple Silicon Difference" obvious (Face ID, for example), rather than trickle in on a gradual basis.
No one knows. Apple have said they will support Intel Macs for "years to come" but they haven't yet said exactly how many years that will be. And that's on purpose, i think that's a detail they may not have decided on and they will save that for later. I don't think they'll drop support super quickly. I don't think they're interested in leaving people hanging abruptly for this. They have the money and resources to support the last Intel Macs with software updates for the usual 7 years if they want to. My Late 2013 MBP will be getting Big Sur as it's last OS update. If they stick to that. A 2020 Intel MBP will get it's last OS update in 2027 with 2028 being the first time it does not get the new OS. I personally think they will try to stick to that as long as they can, but if ARM Macs enable features that can't work on aging Intel machines, they will drop support sooner if it makes the most sense. I would say maybe as early as 4 years, that could potentially happen. So i'm thinking 4-7 years for OS support.
I believe, as you say, that they will aim for 7 years.
However I am concerned that fixing issues related to old HW will get a low priority. I fear that we may already be seeing that effect will all the GPU issues and kernel panics on Catalina. The A team is probably focusing on Big Sur for Apple Silicon.
Leopard was supported for about 6 years after the transition was announced and about 5 years after it's hardware completion, I'd expect similar for Intel Macs. In terms of receiving new OS releases, Snow Leopard was released in 2009, 4 years after the announcement and 3 years after the transition was complete, the first OS to support Intel only. If history dictates then I'd expect 3 releases left for Intel including Big Sur, based on Apple's change to a yearly release cycle.
In general, I agree with all said before. I would like to develop two points further:
- Apple does, in general, not think about the year a Mac is sold but about the time the product is discontinued. Their vintage/obsolete status calculation goes that way. For example, my rMBP early 2015 does not go vintage this year but will (presumably) next year as it had been discontinued in 2016 with the butterfly editions.
- One should take into account that a MacOS is usually supported for around two years.
- You need up-to-date browsers to have a functional experience. Browsers other than Safari are usually available for a longer time. At the moment, Chrome is available for Yosemite, Firefox still for Mavericks.
- The last PowerPC products had been discontinued in 2006 (iMac G5 in March 2006, Power Mac G5 in August 2006, XServe G5 in November 2006 according to Wikipedia). So, it is 2006 to count from.
- The last OS for PowerPCs was 10.5 Leopard, released in 2009, officially supported until 2011. Chrome and Firefox have been available until 2012.
I've gotten 8 years of of a 2012 15" MBP. If I get 4-5 years out of my new 2020 13" MBP, that would be fine...
I kind of feel the same way. I NEVER expected to get 8 years of use from my 2012 (and it's actually still functioning), my new 2019 could be supported for 4-5 years and I'd probably be OK with that.