When you ask Apple fans this question, you're going to get an overwhelming volume of answers that says whatever RAM Apple offers is the right amount of RAM... including base specs.
Odds are higher than typical that the long-term base spec of 8GB- which has passionately been argued as plenty for "most people" including anyone describing how you use your existing Mac- is probably going to step up to either 12GB and 16GB in just a few weeks. If so, these same people who have defended 8GB as "plenty" for all these years will not then rip Apple for "overloading" Macs with "too much" RAM but will instead just shift on to the new base specs as being "plenty," then potentially shifting to putting down 8GB as "too little" and thus the need to upgrade to what Apple is selling now.
Based on your description, the 8GB argument very commonly made could be made. And if base specs become 12GB or 16GB, that argument can be made (and is at least better than the 8GB argument).
However, I'll caution you to go at this not based on 2024 needs but based on life of device needs. How long will you keep this Mac before replacing it? Based on your post, your number appears to be at least 5 years. So attempt to anticipate what you'll be trying to do with this new Mac in 2029-30, NOT just 2024.
If that's still what you describe, base specs probably works for you. If you can anticipate anything that will be more RAM demanding, you may want to add more RAM. Unlike the Intel past, there is no adjusting this later... so you have to buy whatever you will EVER need... NOT what is "good enough" for now. Else, instead of adding some more cheap RAM later when you discover you need it, you have to buy a whole new computer.
Lastly, Apple Intelligence is going to need a lot of RAM... and Apple is probably going to be pushing and evolving it for the next few years. As more and more of it piles in, it will probably need more and more RAM allocations. None of us can reasonably estimate what that RAM need will actually be. So I'd build in a sizable "fudge factor" to try to cover that mostly unknown RAM need... even if you have some concept about not wanting to use it (because macOS will probably have many uses for it whether you want to do additional things with it or not). For example, for the most part, I just about NEVER use Siri... but Siri occupies OS space on all my Apple devices. A.I. will too... whether I want to use it or not.
My advice:
- Attempt very best effort at imagining your 2029-30 needs. More intense photo or video editing? Other interests that are RAM hogs? This is harder to do than it is to write down... but very important if you want to get this right.
- Once you know your probable number, round UP even if it is barely over some threshold that Apple chooses. For example, if you can anticipate a regular need for 17GB, think 24GB or 32GB- whichever is next tier up above 16GB. Liberally factor in the A.I. fudge. A working concept is Apple A.I. is going to need 8GB of RAM right up front, so assume 2029 will probably at least double that if not more... as macOS will evolve 5 times by then and A.I. is probably the "it" focus for the next few years at least.
- DO NOT trust opinions about leaning on SWAP. SWAP works just fine but it involves using SSD like slow RAM. SSDs fail after too many writes. See countless threads about problems with failing Fusion Drive Macs. In the majority of those cases what is making them fail is too many writes to the SSD portion. SWAP is basically doing the same- there's just more SSD space to potentially make this NOT be an issue during life of a device. Nevertheless, I would never lean on using SSD like RAM in this calculation. Instead, I'd see SWAP as "gravy" in very unusual circumstances when I overrun the right amount of RAM I've chosen. The same people who will argue FOR SWAP are likely the ones who argued that Fusion drives would be fine during life of those devices... and now we see post after post of failing Fusions and none of them are backing up their very passionate opinions back then. Instead, it's just "buy a new Mac" or "replace the drive"... which- the former- will prove to be THE fan remedy spun if too much SWAP ends up making the SSD fail in Silicon Macs before owners are ready to replace those Macs. At least the Fusion drives are generally replaceable in old Macs. Now, when any part fails, you have to buy a new Mac.
Lastly,
open up EVERYTHING you tend to do when you feel you are taxing the existing Mac the hardest and check your RAM usage. Whatever that number is, round up and add some A.I. fudge too. That could be a fast way to a pretty good estimate based on your own actual RAM usage.
In short, while Apple beancounters are basically robbing Apple customers with far overpriced RAM (and SSD) relative to market, take best shot at estimating 2029 and then ROUND UP. If you have to own a Mac (because you cannot bring yourself to go PC instead where tremendous competition for commodities like RAM & SSD keep those prices "at market"), pay wayyyyyyyyy up from the
only Store that can provide Mac RAM and you should be fine in 2029.
