How reliable is the June refresh rumour?

[octatonic]

First let me say sorry, I know that ultimately rumours are unreliable but I'm in a bit of a pickle here in that I am travelling from the end of next week until mid-August.

I was hoping to be travelling with an MBA but if the Thunderbolt equipped ones are coming early June then I should probably wait and pick one up then.

The "Mac Rumors Buyers Guide" says:

"Product MacBook Air
Recommendation: Neutral - Mid product cycle
Last Release October 20, 2010
Days Since Update 202 (Avg = 336)"

but the rumour I've read is the new ones are coming in June.
What would you do in my situation?

 

[alexandero]

Wait if you can. Otherwise, buy a low end MBA and try to sell it as soon as you return from your trip. In case the next MBA has not officially been announced until then, you won't lose much money and can buy the next revision once available.

PS: the 336 days from buyersguide.macrumors.com ist not a reliable indicator as the MBA didn't have many revisions yet and has completely been relaunched last autumn. You can trust buyersguide for products like the iPad, but not for the MBA.

 

[ZipZap]

Macmall puts a super low end 11" MBA on ebay pretty regularly in the $800 range.

Use it as a stop-gap purchase perhaps...

 

[robeddie]

June (or July) is a darn good guess for an update.

Before the MBA went into hibernation mode between June 2009 and Oct. 2010 with a complete relaunch, the time between updates was about 9 months.

So that's the timetable that you should look at.

That's why I think the buyers guide is silly. The 'advice' at the top ("Neutral - mid product cycle") is COMPLETELY based on average time between updates, and makes no accomodation for an extreme one-time abberation between updates like the MBA had.

The 'math' says it's mid-product cycle, but all other human logic says it's almost end of cycle. I think the buyers guide should factor that in, if it's really going to purport to give out advice on when to buy.

 

[octatonic]

Macmall puts a super low end 11" MBA on ebay pretty regularly in the $800 range.

Use it as a stop-gap purchase perhaps...

Oh, I am in the UK- so have to buy locally.

 

[octatonic]

Ok, thanks for the advice people- I appreciate the heads up.

I have a time pressure to consider as well which is I stop being a full-time student in June (and my student card expires) so I decided to pick up an 11" MBA with my student discount for the time being, rather than the 13" Ultimate I would have bought.

I will lose a couple of hundred over the next couple of months but that is fine as I got a great price for my 17" unibody that was too big to lug around.

Just installing now- it is a nifty little thing.

 

[striker33]

Ok, thanks for the advice people- I appreciate the heads up.

I have a time pressure to consider as well which is I stop being a full-time student in June (and my student card expires) so I decided to pick up an 11" MBA with my student discount for the time being, rather than the 13" Ultimate I would have bought.

I will lose a couple of hundred over the next couple of months but that is fine as I got a great price for my 17" unibody that was too big to lug around.

Just installing now- it is a nifty little thing.

Just get your uni edu store link for the Apple site. You can use it and order at discounted prices anytime you want, regardless of being a student or not.

 

[Ridley]

"Product MacBook Air
Recommendation: Neutral - Mid product cycle
Last Release October 20, 2010
Days Since Update 202 (Avg = 336)"

Hey, I wrote this on another post so please forgive the cut and paste. The Buyers guide is solely a function of avg days between upgrades. It does not in any way factor in speculation of rumors, external issues like the ending of relationships with Nvidea, or availability of Core 2 Duos, etc. That said an 8 month release for an Air has happened before, and June releases of laptops in time for back to school occur very often (as you'll see from the buyers guide). The buyers guide formula works well if Apple updates a product with regular frequency, but breaks if it is sporadic or if no historical data exists.

The most recent rumor i know of was the AppleInsider article from April 22nd. I think typically the closer you get to the rumored date, the more credible the rumors become. So far we haven't heard anything to the contrary. The rumors say they will start to be produced by the end of May. If true we can expect some more leaks and rumors in the next week or two.

 

[Oli3000]

Just get your uni edu store link for the Apple site. You can use it and order at discounted prices anytime you want, regardless of being a student or not.

Precisely. You normally don't lose access to your campus until september - as it takes into account resits in your final year!

If your uni has VPN you can always log on via that as well...

 

[fyrefly]

There are two main MBA June refresh Predicitions - One from Brooke Crothers at CNET and one from the analyst who correctly predicted the 11" MBA's release, over three months before it came out.

Brooke Crothers also has a decent track record, having correctly predicted that the 13" 2011 MBP would drop Nvidia and go Intel-only with graphics.

There's also the reports that the new MBPs have stolen the spotlight from the MBA, and sales are declining up to 40% from February-March 2011.

That, to me, means the refresh is gonna happen sooner, rather than later. If the sales had stayed strong, Apple would have no reason to update. But it seems the 13" Core-iX MBP is obviously stealing potential MBA (C2D) customers.

 

[halledise]

How reliable is the June refresh rumour?

we'll all know for sure end of June - not meaning to be smart, but it's almost impossible to predict especially when in comes to the Air which historically has a longer than most product cycle.
the current models are very fast with spectacular graphics given the pairing of CPU and GPU.
I honestly think if you really need an Air to travel with for the next coupla months, buy one and be happy.
Update next year or whenever.

 

[Gemütlichkeit]

we'll all know for sure end of June - not meaning to be smart, but it's almost impossible to predict especially when in comes to the Air which historically has a longer than most product cycle.
the current models are very fast with spectacular graphics given the pairing of CPU and GPU.
I honestly think if you really need an Air to travel with for the next coupla months, buy one and be happy.
Update next year or whenever.

Based on the rumor source it's pretty strong though. Production late may for release mid to late June. I can see it happening.

If I was the thread starter I'd wait.

 

[karlth]

More likely also because of the coming school year and the new chrome laptops.

 

[mikekey]

There is only one problem with the rumor mill of a refresh. The MacBook Air just got refreshed in October of 2010.

 

[karlth]

There is only one problem with the rumor mill of a refresh. The MacBook Air just got refreshed in October of 2010.

The last Macbook Pro model lasted only 10 months.

It is a competitive market out there.

 

[halledise]

The last Macbook Pro model lasted only 10 months.

It is a competitive market out there.

we're talking Air not Pro tho

 

[karlth]

we're talking Air not Pro tho

So? The market segment that Air is in is even more competitive.

 

[Ridley]

There is only one problem with the rumor mill of a refresh. The MacBook Air just got refreshed in October of 2010.

The macbook air was released in October 08 and refreshed in June 09. Doesn't seem like a problem with the rumor, in fact, the same release schedule has happened before!

Check out the buyers guide again https://buyersguide.macrumors.com//#MacBook_Air

I reckon the Air is a higher margin for Apple than the MBP AND i'm sure they love locking it down with the proprietary hardware. So if someone wants to upgrade the RAM or something you need to buy a whole new computer. Apple LOVES that! Also, traditionally the MBA has not been an attractive choice for students (a big demographic for Apple). A June release MBA would help change that. Look at the buyers guide and notice how frequently there is a summer release of a new laptop (mostly May-June). They typically want something fresh to attract the college and school crowds. Lastly, I think the college demographic is much more aware of Intel's marketing message of core vs i5/i7 which might also make Apple want to upgrade.

Again none of this is guaranteed, but in my biased opinion (i have a need to buy an Air in June), I think there is precedent for the timing of the release and a business case for doing it.

 

[Ridley]

I reckon the Air is a higher margin for Apple than the MBP AND i'm sure they love locking it down with the proprietary hardware. So if someone wants to upgrade the RAM or something you need to buy a whole new computer. Apple LOVES that!

I just saw this today but case in point http://gizmodo.com/5801275/you-cant-upgrade-the-hard-drive-in-the-new-imacs

The new iMac hard drive is Apple proprietary so you can't replace it. I think if Apple had an opportunity to rope the flood of college kids and student discount eligbles into proprietary laptop hardware (MBA) they would. I think that is a possible reason why June is more likely than October. Especially since the MBP update took some momentum and sales away from the Air

 

[nebulos]

I just saw this today but case in point http://gizmodo.com/5801275/you-cant-upgrade-the-hard-drive-in-the-new-imacs

The new iMac hard drive is Apple proprietary so you can't replace it. I think if Apple had an opportunity to rope the flood of college kids and student discount eligbles into proprietary laptop hardware (MBA) they would. I think that is a possible reason why June is more likely than October. Especially since the MBP update took some momentum and sales away from the Air

wow.

by next year, Apple will only sell 'disposable' electronics. when anything breaks after the 365th day, we simply toss in the dump and buy anew.

Apple certainly thinks 'green', but which green is it?