How strong are iPad refresh rumours for June?

[mrklaw]

seeing a few here and there, but nothing concrete. iPads have often been a bit odd with the timing of releases, often not fitting in neat 12 month updates
We’re still a little way off but most rumours seem to be more speculation based on applying the IPhone X approach to the iPad designs. No signs of components etc although might still be a bit early for that

Reason I’m asking is I’m on holiday right now and could pick up a 10.5 or 12.9 significantly cheaper than back in the UK. But if new ones really are due in June then it might be bad timing

 

[concept32]

I would wait. The A11X or whatever Apple puts in the new iPad will be a big step above the A10X. The A11 (in iPhone 8/X) is better than the A10X. When the iPad “X” chip revision comes out which likely will have more cores and improved graphics, it will be well worth the wait.

 

[JPack]

The rumors are strong for a few reasons.

1. TSMC is ramping 7nm production in June for a major customer. Apple is TSMC's largest customer. These new chips are going somewhere.

2. iPad (2018) with Pencil support is likely cannibalizing iPad Pro 10.5". Apple needs to widen the feature and performance gap sooner rather than later.

 

[maflynn]

Just my guess, but I'm thinking that WWDC will be a time for the Mac line and any iPad updates will occur in the fall.

 

[JPack]

Just my guess, but I'm thinking that WWDC will be a time for the Mac line and any iPad updates will occur in the fall.

From a marketing perspective, I don’t think it would work.

Tim Cook has just presented A11X on stage as being the most powerful processor in Apple’s history. Thirty seconds later, they show an A12 on the new iPhone?

 

[mrklaw]

From a marketing perspective, I don’t think it would work.

Tim Cook has just presented A11X on stage as being the most powerful processor in Apple’s history. Thirty seconds later, they show an A12 on the new iPhone?

Maybe they skip A11X and just go with A12x? Not like the iPads have any proper history of regular 12 month updates - they’ve been all over the place

Maybe they’ll announce A12X at WWDC for the MacBook line?

 

[metalcyclone]

I’ve read some rumors that look pretty solid from Ming Chi Kuo of KGI and Bloomberg I think... plus the Asian supply chain...

It’s supposed to include an 11” or so screen iPad and A11X chip at 7nm plus a bezelless design with no home button. I’m very excited for the new design as it’s been awhile since they have redesigned the iPad unless you count the 10.5 which was a slight change but not quite as major as I would have liked it to be. I have the 10.5 in Space Gray 256GB BUT if Apple redesigns the 12.9” iPad Pro also this year with thinner bezels and the A11X I may consider going big this time and getting the larger variant.

I had a 12.9” first gen Pro but recently sold it. Now I wish I hadn’t but we’ll see.... if I get a 2018 12.9” Pro then it’s all good again... lol. We’ll see. Price will play a roll in my discussion also. I don’t want to go over a thousand bucks but I need at least 256 GB especially if I’m paying that kind of cash. I don’t need LTE though that that might help keep the cost down. But my movie and TV show collection is growing and 256 GB is going to be essential!!

So like I said.... we’ll see what happens....

 

[concept32]

The rumors are strong for a few reasons.

1. TSMC is ramping 7nm production in June for a major customer. Apple is TSMC's largest customer. These new chips are going somewhere.

2. iPad (2018) with Pencil support is likely cannibalizing iPad Pro 10.5". Apple needs to widen the feature and performance gap sooner rather than later.

Good points. And for reference, A10X is using 10nm process.

I wonder if they will skip A11X and go right to a n A12 that can be used for both iPhone X’s and iPad Pro’s (and other products?)...

 

[The Game 161]

It will be June

Fall will be for new iPhones and Apple Watch.

 

[JPack]

Maybe they skip A11X and just go with A12x? Not like the iPads have any proper history of regular 12 month updates - they’ve been all over the place

Maybe they’ll announce A12X at WWDC for the MacBook line?

With new process nodes, it’s best practice to use an existing design (A11 or A11X) and run it through the process.

If Apple skips A11X and goes straight to A12X, that means much higher risk as both the design and manufacturing process are brand new.

From a technical standpoint, launching A11X using the new 7nm process in June and then A12 in September is less risky. The A11X is a known design and acts as a test vehicle before the “do or die” A12 for iPhone.

 

[afir93]

From a marketing perspective, I don’t think it would work.

Tim Cook has just presented A11X on stage as being the most powerful processor in Apple’s history. Thirty seconds later, they show an A12 on the new iPhone?

If the new iPad Pro gets released alongside the iPhone in September, then it would most certainly skip the A11X and get the same A12 like the new iPhones. The A-number has been what the iPads were getting back then they released in October for a while, the A-number-X has always been more a solution because the iPad Pros were moved to June where they wanted to put something better than the 9-month-old A9/A10 from the latest iPhone in it but the next big A-chip was scheduled for the next big iPhone and therefore not ready yet.

That said, I'm really not sure this time around. An iPad Pro at WWDC would make sense because of how attractive the 2018 iPads are and because Apple would want to make the gap larger again rather sooner than later. But seeing as the new iPad Pros are supposed to get Face ID, it would also make sense to release them alongside the new iPhones in September to ensure feature equality (otherwise, the iPad Pros in June would have most likely a better version of Face ID than the iPhone X for three months, only for the 3 new iPhones in September to probably have better Face ID than the iPad Pros, which would all be a bit awkward).

 

[concept32]

With new process nodes, it’s best practice to use an existing design (A11 or A11X) and run it through the process.

If Apple skips A11X and goes straight to A12X, that means much higher risk as both the design and manufacturing process are brand new.

From a technical standpoint, launching A11X using the new 7nm process in June and then A12 in September is less risky. The A11X is a known design and acts as a test vehicle before the “do or die” A12 for iPhone.

Thanks for the info. In regards to the improved die process (10nm to 7nm), what type of performance gains are expected on the reduced die size alone?

 

[JPack]

Thanks for the info. In regards to the improved die process (10nm to 7nm), what type of performance gains are expected on the reduced die size alone?

Out of area, power, and switching speed, I believe area is being targeted with about 16% reduction. TSMC 7nm will be based on double and multi patterning so they’re reaching hard limits like everyone else. 7nm+ is expected to arrive in 2019 with the use of EUV and that’s when more significant performance improvements are expected.

 

[frou]

The selling point of the 2018 iPP is going to be its physical redesign, so it doesn't need a super nextgen processor to appeal.

A good example of the opposite was the iPhone 5S after the 5.

 

[puma1552]

If the new iPad Pro gets released alongside the iPhone in September, then it would most certainly skip the A11X and get the same A12 like the new iPhones. The A-number has been what the iPads were getting back then they released in October for a while, the A-number-X has always been more a solution because the iPad Pros were moved to June where they wanted to put something better than the 9-month-old A9/A10 from the latest iPhone in it but the next big A-chip was scheduled for the next big iPhone and therefore not ready yet.

That said, I'm really not sure this time around. An iPad Pro at WWDC would make sense because of how attractive the 2018 iPads are and because Apple would want to make the gap larger again rather sooner than later. But seeing as the new iPad Pros are supposed to get Face ID, it would also make sense to release them alongside the new iPhones in September to ensure feature equality (otherwise, the iPad Pros in June would have most likely a better version of Face ID than the iPhone X for three months, only for the 3 new iPhones in September to probably have better Face ID than the iPad Pros, which would all be a bit awkward).

there is zero chance of three different versions of face id across apples products in one year.

it took two full years to get second gen touch id, so id expect the same for face id, meaning it will be in a phone in 2019 and probably not in an ipad until after that in 2020.

 

[afir93]

there is zero chance of three different versions of face id across apples products in one year.

it took two full years to get second gen touch id, so id expect the same for face id, meaning it will be in a phone in 2019 and probably not in an ipad until after that in 2020.

I wouldn't be so sure. Keep in mind that the neural engine is part of the A11 chip, so it's a very plausible guess that the neural engine of the A12 (and potentially also the A11X) will be faster and maybe also in other areas more capable than the one of the A11, which would translate into (at least) a speed improvement in Face ID on the 2018 devices. I mean, I could maybe see the iPad getting the same neural engine as the iPhone X since the X line is architecture wise closer to the former A- release to my knowledge, but if you're saying that Face ID will remain the exact same this year, then you're implying that Apple will change/improve almost everything about the processor in the next iPhones (as per the rumored switch to 7nm architecture) except the neural engine, which seems rather unlikely to me.

Also, Face ID on the iPad would only make sense if they allow it to work from all angles or at the very least all four different orientations, which is something that Face ID on the current iPhone X is not capable of doing. On the X it doesn't matter much, but Apple most certainly won't force you to hold your iPad in a single orientation to unlock it when one of the big advantages of it has always been that you can hold it whichever way you like. That means your guess about Face ID not getting any improvement until 2019 is most certainly false (assuming we do get Face ID iPads this year); what we don't know about it is if the orientation-free Face ID will be rolled out via a software update to all devices or if it will require a hardware update for them to do it.

 

[Falhófnir]

If the new iPad Pro gets released alongside the iPhone in September, then it would most certainly skip the A11X and get the same A12 like the new iPhones. The A-number has been what the iPads were getting back then they released in October for a while, the A-number-X has always been more a solution because the iPad Pros were moved to June where they wanted to put something better than the 9-month-old A9/A10 from the latest iPhone in it but the next big A-chip was scheduled for the next big iPhone and therefore not ready yet.

That said, I'm really not sure this time around. An iPad Pro at WWDC would make sense because of how attractive the 2018 iPads are and because Apple would want to make the gap larger again rather sooner than later. But seeing as the new iPad Pros are supposed to get Face ID, it would also make sense to release them alongside the new iPhones in September to ensure feature equality (otherwise, the iPad Pros in June would have most likely a better version of Face ID than the iPhone X for three months, only for the 3 new iPhones in September to probably have better Face ID than the iPad Pros, which would all be a bit awkward).

The X chips were developed more to have greater graphics capabilities over the vanilla chips than anything - starting with the A5X in the iPad 3. They do run at somewhat higher clock speeds as there’s a bigger battery to supply power and more room to dissipate heat, but other than that are much the same on the cpu side as their phone counterparts. Another difference is the ram isn’t on the package unlike the iPhone chips, though I don’t know why that is (I guess making more room/ thermal headroom for the bigger graphics array? Or else making the chips cheaper)

 

[afir93]

The X chips were developed more to have greater graphics capabilities over the vanilla chips than anything - starting with the A5X in the iPad 3. They do run at somewhat higher clock speeds as there’s a bigger battery to supply power and more room to dissipate heat, but other than that are much the same on the cpu side as their phone counterparts. Another difference is the ram isn’t on the package unlike the iPhone chips, though I don’t know why that is (I guess making more room/ thermal headroom for the bigger graphics array? Or else making the chips cheaper)

Ok thank your for that insight. That would support though what I was saying, I think? If the iPads release in/after September then there's probably no reason for Apple to use an A11X chip that would do less for more (i.e. that would be slower than an A12 but more draining on battery) when the A12 is already available.

 

[frou]

Isn't it the case that the A(N+1) has not necessarily had more graphics horsepower than the A(N)X?

 

[Falhófnir]

Ok thank your for that insight. That would support though what I was saying, I think? If the iPads release in/after September then there's probably no reason for Apple to use an A11X chip that would do less for more (i.e. that would be slower than an A12 but more draining on battery) when the A12 is already available.

I’d say again it’s down to the graphics; looking at the geek bench scores we’ve got as a rough estimate:

A9 - 10,200
A10 - 12,700
A11 - 15,300

For iPhone chips, so about a 2,500 bump between generations. If that pattern holds, the A12 should have a score of just under 18,000. Now with the iPad chips:

A8X - 7,700
A9X - 15,600
A10X - 29,100

As you can see, that’s a far bigger bump, you’d expect to see an A11X with a score of up to maybe 45,000! Even a more modest estimate would come in at something like 37-38,000. For that reason I think it will be an A11X when the new models launch.