I think considering the effort apple put into getting the MP5,1 up to speed for Mojave
"... You’ll need to
turn off File Vault ....
..... Holding down Option while restarting doesn't allow you to choose an operating system on these Mac Pro models. ..."
Install Mojave 10.14 on Mac Pro 2010 or 2012 support document.
What Apple is doing here is primarily a stop gap because they have no other option. If they release a new Mac Pro with some internal expansion they will have options. Stop gap time will likely be over. These efforts are only enough to keep a subset of folks circling the airport another several (or more than several) months.
Remember this support only came
after Apple released the initial betas of 10.14. Apple managed to cobble together something for the Mac Pro 2010-2012 models very late in the game. It was not a priority while they were putting together the bulk of 10.14 or it would have been done by early June. It wasn't.
The video cards are as much riding on the new stuff being added for eGPUs as much as specifically for the Mac Pro. Almost the same exact boot restrictions.
and that every MP5,1 running Mojave will have a metal compatible video card (removing the video card limitation that apple has used an excuse to drop support for macs in the past)
But how many are going to upgrade? Probably a high percentage but the ones that don't make a small group even smaller.
Apple doesn't need an excuse. They have a policy.
Vintage and Obsolete Hardware Support The Mac Pro 2010 is already on the Vintage list. The 2012 will be on by Fall 2019. At maximum 2 years (and often sooner) after getting onto the Vintage list systems are typically dropped from OS upgrades too. The clock is already running on the Mac 5,1 since it was technically replaced by the 6,1. (and Apple is probably eager to start to the clock on the 6,1 too. )
I think theres a good chance apple will support the 5,1 in 10.15
If they have completely SNAFU'ed the new Mac Pro product management and won't have anything to release before mid-late December 2019 then there is a decent chance. If Apple does something in Jan-April of 2019 with a new Mac Pro so that they can take the 'temperature' of Mac Pro market before June then probably not.
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Interested in what you all think will be the final straw.
Time. Apple has a very long established and explicit policy for discontinuing hardware support. The Vintage and Obsolete policy is 5-7 years after last manufacture (sold ).
"... Apple service providers for 5 years after the product is no longer manufactured—or longer where required by law. ...
... Obsolete products are those that were discontinued more than 7 years ago. ..."
The clock countdown clock has been running on the 5,1 for years at this point. The 5,1 is only getting some "get out of jail free" time because the Mac Pro product management has been so bungled over the last 2-3 years that Apple is off their usual cadence in this corner case.
There was a 3 year gap between the 2010 Mac Pro and the 2013. The +/-2 year slack that builds into the Vintage/Obsolete scope was blown before they even started the clock running. Then the 2013 model went to an even
deeper Rip Van Winkle slumber. All the slack/slop is likely gone. Apple has croaked out a kludge primarily only because they have FUBAR the upgrade process so bad they need to kick the can down the road another year to not completely shoot themselves in both feet with a large caliber weapon. .... multiple times.
P.S. Apple recently said they would do some 'extensions' on their Vintage/Obsolete policy where they had sufficient stockpiles of replacement parts. For the Mac Pro that seems quite unlikely since those stockpiles have probably been stretched over a longer than initially projected time at this point with the multiple upgrade product delays.