If you are really wanting to buy a Mini, maybe stand by for March. There's some history that iPad updates can hit in March.
But #2 seems increasingly likely. If there was a Mini coming in March, we'd probably have at least SOME rumor about it at almost the beginning of FEB.
I'd like to buy a brand new one too!
If you still want the form factor anyway, plenty of refurb 4s in the Apple refurb store.