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iPad Orders Drop Sharply (article)

So much time being wasted on such meaningless numbers.

Working with Victor Castroll, an analyst with Valcent Financial Group, he applied a complex formula that subtracts the average number of non-iPad orders on Apple's online site (assuming a slight bump due to increased traffic), multiplies the result by an average of 1.125 iPads per order and adds an estimated 500 units for the eight late-night hours for which they had no data.
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This does not include iPads reserved for pick-up.
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"But this is a very speculative guesstimate based on just a weekend of pre-orders."
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I love hard hitting news. Lies, damn lies, statistics, and headline whore-mongering.
 
gwynne said:
http://brainstormtech.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2010/03/15/apple-ipad-orders-drop-sharply/

Same people who have come up with all the other pre-order numbers so far.

They're still predicting half a million pre-orders, and a million units sold by the second week of launch.
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We would do ourselves more favours by not Pre Ordering, Apple inc execs might get worried if people didnt pre order and reduce the price.

But
speculative guesstimate
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that appears to be a picking numbers out of air overrun/filled with methane.

multiplies the result by an average of 1.125 iPads per order
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Do you get discount if you buy 0.125 % of an iPad?:)

I personally believe that Tello and Castroll should be sent to Middle Earth to count earthworms.
 
I guess I'm playing devil's advocate here, but everyone was happy with those guys when they were reporting the huge numbers, now we don't like them because the numbers seem to have dropped off?

(I'm not arguing with the headline-grabbing thing or with their commentary being pretty snarky, but their method hasn't changed. It seems to me that if we accept the initial 120k number, then rejecting their subsequent data when we don't like it is kind of hypocritical.)
 
gwynne said:
I guess I'm playing devil's advocate here, but everyone was happy with those guys when they were reporting the huge numbers, now we don't like them because the numbers seem to have dropped off?

(I'm not arguing with the headline-grabbing thing or with their commentary being pretty snarky, but their method hasn't changed. It seems to me that if we accept the initial 120k number, then rejecting their subsequent data when we don't like it is kind of hypocritical.)
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Indeed. Furthermore - why does this surprise anyone?

The rabid fans and early adopters waited - no doubt - hitting refreshing every second from the keynote to order day waiting on the button that said "order now". The first day, of course, would have "record numbers" with subsequent days dropping off - even dramatically.

They'll be another hugh spike on launch day of in-store sales. Then after the first day - numbers will likely be good/great - but they won't be the same as that first day.

Are you really surprised at the statistic? Did anyone here really think that day one sales would be the "norm" ?
 
gwynne said:
I guess I'm playing devil's advocate here, but everyone was happy with those guys when they were reporting the huge numbers, now we don't like them because the numbers seem to have dropped off?

(I'm not arguing with the headline-grabbing thing or with their commentary being pretty snarky, but their method hasn't changed. It seems to me that if we accept the initial 120k number, then rejecting their subsequent data when we don't like it is kind of hypocritical.)
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Personally I'm amused at the Yellow Journalism tactic of CNN.com. As for the estimated numbers, they seem reasonable to me. Common sense tells you the early adopters are going to rush in followed by a sales lull until Apple ramps up its own marketing campaign.

From the other posts above I don't see any strident objections to the data, either from Friday or over the weekend.
 
Duh!

Who in their right mind thought that orders wouldn't fall off after all the fan boys got theirs? :rolleyes:
 
gwynne said:
I guess I'm playing devil's advocate here, but everyone was happy with those guys when they were reporting the huge numbers, now we don't like them because the numbers seem to have dropped off?

(I'm not arguing with the headline-grabbing thing or with their commentary being pretty snarky, but their method hasn't changed. It seems to me that if we accept the initial 120k number, then rejecting their subsequent data when we don't like it is kind of hypocritical.)
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I think their 120K was way out on a limb. Pre-sales may or may not be there, but there's a lot of hand waving to get to that number, and that number doesn't really tell us the whole picture. We have to wait until the 3rd for any meaningful sales numbers, which still won't account for the 3G buyers.

With all that said, there certainty was a lot of pent up demand. Reporting on an unsustainable pace is like reporting that the sun shocks all as it rises this morning.
 
this sounds positive to me. Of course day 1 orders will be hight, but if they are on track to pre-sell 250-400k units, plus reservations, plus people who just show up... It's already a hit.
 
mrgreen4242 said:
this sounds positive to me. Of course day 1 orders will be hight, but if they are on track to pre-sell 250-400k units, plus reservations, plus people who just show up... It's already a hit.
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I'm with you. These numbers are incredible. It took Apple 74 days to sell one million iPhones in 2007. If iPad sells a million units in two weeks, that's phenomenal.
 
mrgreen4242 said:
this sounds positive to me. Of course day 1 orders will be hight, but if they are on track to pre-sell 250-400k units, plus reservations, plus people who just show up... It's already a hit.
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Already a hit? No one has one yet. A bit premature. INITIAL sales are strong so far. That's all that can be said. Whether it's a hit or not will depend on a lot of factors. One of the major ones being - people actually USING it.

GeekLawyer said:
I'm with you. These numbers are incredible. It took Apple 74 days to sell one million iPhones in 2007. If iPad sells a million units in two weeks, that's phenomenal.
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Apples and Oranges.

In 2007 - no one has used the OS, seen a device such as the iPhone. Of course it took longer for adoption.

There is a LOT more brand/device awareness in the marketplace simply BECAUSE those iPhone/iPod users who began adoption in 2007 are ordering the iPad.

You can't compare 2007 1st gen iPhone to the iPad sales.
 
samcraig said:
You can't compare 2007 1st gen iPhone to the iPad sales.
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Of course you can! In both cases you were dealing with 1st generations of devices that people aren't generally sure of yet, in terms of whether they are overhyped or will really fit their needs. You would expect the iPad to sell better than the original iPhone because people are more familiar in general with this type of device, but the comparison between the two is still entirely meaningful. Of course it would help to have actual reliable figures, but the fact that these seem to be at worst an underestimate and they still suggest that there will have been 500k pre-orders is promising.

Whether coincidence or not, it's pretty funny that you disappeared on the afternoon of March 11 when the pre-order lovefest started to get rolling but then reappear today at the first sign of even slightly "bad" news.
 
samcraig said:
Already a hit? No one has one yet. A bit premature. INITIAL sales are strong so far. That's all that can be said. Whether it's a hit or not will depend on a lot of factors. One of the major ones being - people actually USING it.
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Why wouldn't people that bought one use it? Seems to me if you are going to spend $500-800 on a gadget you are damn well going to use it. Also it's not like the iPad is a 100% new platform with limited launch apps. There are already 100K plus apps that work with it the day its release, not to mention all the videos and books. I don't think iPad owners are going to be lacking media when they rip the cellophane.
 
admanimal said:
Of course you can! In both cases you were dealing with 1st generations of devices that people aren't generally sure of yet, in terms of whether they are overhyped or will really fit their needs. You would expect the iPad to sell better than the original iPhone because people are more familiar in general with this type of device, but the comparison between the two is still entirely meaningful. Of course it would help to have actual reliable figures.

Whether coincidence or not, it's pretty funny that you disappeared on the afternoon of March 11 when the pre-order lovefest started to get rolling but then reappear today at the first sign of even slightly "bad" news.
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Yes - of course - I disappeared because of the lovefest. It couldn't be another reason like - Oh- I don't know. I was away for the weekend running around with pre-wedding plans. LOL

The comparison isn't appropriate. But feel free to think whatever you want. I will. Imagine selling someone the very first car in history. Now try selling them a fast/better/bigger car a few years later. Which do you think was harder?

Don't discount familiarity. Doesn't matter if the device is new - the way it's being sold IS leveraged on the success of the iPhone/iPod ecosystem. To deny it is silly as Jobs himself said so in the keynote.

If the iPhone/iPod never existed - do you think the iPad would be as popular on day one? You're kidding yourself, in my opinion, if you do.
 
GeekLawyer said:
I'm with you. These numbers are incredible. It took Apple 74 days to sell one million iPhones in 2007. If iPad sells a million units in two weeks, that's phenomenal.
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i was just going to say that - when the iPhone numbers first came out everyone was disappointed - well - we all see how that turned out. these numbers so far are tracking better than the iphone.
 
I think the iPhone was really hurt by the cell phone system. People are used to either buying a phones really cheap under contract, or full price with no contract. Buying an expensive smartphone with contract doesn't really jive. I think that was a significant initial stigma. The other too was people needed to be elegible to upgrade or switch in order to buy.

The iPad isn't going to have to deal with that although it doesn't have that built-in market segment. It does, however, fits into a few slots. For people who haven't bought one yet, it a serviceable netbook. For people who use an iPhone and iPod Touch, it is "just a giant iPod" which covers many disadvantages of the smaller devices and creates only one disadvantage with its size.

I think the $500 price is attractive and a lot of people will go into stores to check it out.
 
Chupa Chupa said:
Why wouldn't people that bought one use it? Seems to me if you are going to spend $500-800 on a gadget you are damn well going to use it. Also it's not like the iPad is a 100% new platform with limited launch apps. There are already 100K plus apps that work with it the day its release, not to mention all the videos and books. I don't think iPad owners are going to be lacking media when they rip the cellophane.
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You misunderstood me. People aren't using it because it hasn't even been shipped yet. Way to over-react based on your assumption of what I meant. You don't need to justify usage to me.

What will dictate whether or not the product is TRULY a hit is continued adoption, use, development, and many factors. Not just day 1/week 1 sales.
 
i think if apple is disappointed in the pre-order numbers we will see them release another ad or leak some more information about it to drum up some business this. if they don't do this i think we can assume the sales are tracking as they expected.
 
shk718 said:
i think if apple is disappointed in the pre-order numbers we will see them release another ad or leak some more information about it to drum up some business this. if they don't do this i think we can assume the sales are tracking as they expected.
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I would expect more ads and more tactical leaks in any event. When they happen, don't assume it's due to Apple's "disappointment" with the numbers.
 
By the way - I love how some of you automatically assume I'm being NEGATIVE just because I'm explaining why sales dropped off from Day 1. I haven't said anything negative - I've been realistic based on the current data. Being realistic and explaining WHY it might be isn't being negative. Take a good long look at my posts. Just because I'm not debunking the data doesn't mean I'm being negative. But I guess I shouldn't expect the blinded nor the ones that can't handle reality to tell the difference.
 
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