iPad Pro iPad Pro 11” XDR Possible for Spring event?

[James Godfrey]

Does anyone think with the recent news of 11 new iPad model numbers being registered on the Eurasian Economic Database that there is a possibility we may see the 11” get a minor refresh with the XDR display in the spring?

I noticed in the article 2 of the model numbers recently registered (namely A2588 and A2589) were also registered in April last year, but we’re never allocated to an actual product, which is strange…

Now from what I understand each iPad model has 4 model numbers allocated to it…

1. WiFi only
2. Cellular US
3. Cellular China
4. Cellular Global

So with that in mind 11 model numbers allows for 2 iPad models, as that would use 8 of the 11.

So I am thinking either….

Apple have just registered some of the base iPad or iPad Pro model numbers for use later this year or they are in fact releasing two iPads this spring.

Now we know the base iPad won’t get refreshed this soon, however, we could either see two sizes of the iPad Air or we could potentially see a minor refresh of the 11” iPad Pro with all the exact same internals and M1, but just rocking the new miniLED display.

This would be a year after the initial M1 iPad Pro release, but it would also buy Apple some time for the rumoured redesigned iPP’s, as they would potentially get away with keeping the current 12.9” and updating the 11” and then refreshing the two of them in Spring next year.

Just a thought, but I do think there is a good possibility of this actually happening, what do you guys think?

 

[Chancha]

I am guessing no.

For one, the iPad model that desperately need a refresh is the Air, so it is a lock for the spring event and those registered numbers should include them. Not sure if another size of the Air is even meaningful though when the mini exists.

Then for two, while XDR upgrade is welcomed, but if this is the only change for the 11" then it may be a hard sell, especially if it comes with price increase like the 2021 12.9" did. Therefore I think Apple will definitely wait for the M2 to be available, then both the 11" and 12.9" will roll out with it, together with the 11" XDR upgrade.

 

[James Godfrey]

I am guessing no.

For one, the iPad model that desperately need a refresh is the Air, so it is a lock for the spring event and those registered numbers should include them. Not sure if another size of the Air is even meaningful though when the mini exists.

Then for two, while XDR upgrade is welcomed, but if this is the only change for the 11" then it may be a hard sell, especially if it comes with price increase like the 2021 12.9" did. Therefore I think Apple will definitely wait for the M2 to be available, then both the 11" and 12.9" will roll out with it, together with the 11" XDR upgrade.

Yeah that’s quite possible, but I am thinking that the Air ‘may’ also get a price bump now that the refreshed mini exists at $499… I just can’t see them keeping the Air at the $599 price tag, I think it could quite easily come in at $649 or even $699 depending on the feature set and improvements over the previous gen.

Now with the iPad Pro 11” sitting there at $799 it’s a no brainer to go for the Pro as for an extra $100-$150 you will be getting an overall better device, better speakers, 120Hz display that marginally larger, Face ID, and better storage options.

So with that in mind it wouldn’t surprise me if the new Air gets bumped to $699, and the 11” Pro getting the XDR display and coming in at $899.

 

[jb1280]

Doubtful that they would do a silent interim upgrade on the 11” iPad Pro. Unless they have some better mini LED technology they can fit into a thinner chassis, they would probably need to also have a redesigned, slightly thicker chassis - like with the 12.9” last year. If indeed they do that, I’d be skeptical of an M2 iPad Pro until 2023. There are just too many products that are in higher need for a refresh.

On the iPad Air price, also doubtful they will raise the price again. They bumped the price with the redesign in 2020 and the correlating iPad mini price bump took place in the 2021 redesign. A chip bump, center stage, new colors, and 5G (probably without mmWave 5G) does not warrant a price bump. They took the Air from $499 - $599 and the mini from $399 - $499.

Only consideration is that if Apple is planning on a 10% price increase across the board with all refreshes and even with inflation Apple’s margins seem to be in tact coming out of the December quarter - so again doubtful.

 

[TheRealAlex]

2018 iPad Pro 11” going strong here not upgrading it. There’s nothing new. Until Apple features

#1. new MiniLED‘s faster transitions than the 12.9” version
#2. WiFi 6e
#3. Bluetooth 6.0 (for High Res Lossless AirPods compatability)
#4. Smaller die M2 for cooling and battery savings
#5. confirmed 8GB LPDDR5 RAM

Otherise, for Gaming purposes I’m fast forwarding to 2024 and getting the Samsung Tab S8 Plus 12.4” 144hz OLED tablet which feature all the specs above and the Qualcomm 8 Gen 1 so I can play Diablo Immortal.

Spec wise these are the same panels Samsung is providing Apple for its OLED iPad Pro in 2024. Why not get a taste 2 years early.

 

[James Godfrey]

Doubtful that they would do a silent interim upgrade on the 11” iPad Pro. Unless they have some better mini LED technology they can fit into a thinner chassis, they would probably need to also have a redesigned, slightly thicker chassis - like with the 12.9” last year. If indeed they do that, I’d be skeptical of an M2 iPad Pro until 2023. There are just too many products that are in higher need for a refresh.

Exactly the reason I think Apple launching a minor refresh to the 11” sort of makes sense.

If we rewind back to 2020, Apple launched a minor refresh to the iPad Pro line up with the A12Z chip and a better rear camera, this was basically launched to buy them time whilst they developed their M1 chip and miniLED for the line up. Otherwise it would have been about 2.5 years before it got refreshed.

So looking at the line up now, the obvious update to the line up would be the 11” getting the miniLED display, and as we have heard rumours of wireless charging via an all glass back have been shelved, it makes me think if Apple would just refresh the 11” with miniLED to again buy them time whilst they work on the full redesign with some form of wireless charging, but still rocking the M1 chip.

As let’s be honest and as you have said yourself the iPad Pro doesn’t really need any hardware changes at this point and with Apples hands full of redesigns during 2022 (iMac Pro, Mac Pro, MacBook Air, Mac mini, iPhone 14 Pro/Max, possibly new designed Apple Watch), whereas the miniLED update to the 11” will probably be enough of an upgrade for people in the market for an 11” iPP to keep the line up selling for the next year or so… allowing Apple to then launch the newly designed iPP’s in spring 2023… giving the current 12.9” a two year refresh cycle and the 11” a year refresh.

 

[rui no onna]

Exactly the reason I think Apple launching a minor refresh to the 11” sort of makes sense.

If we rewind back to 2020, Apple launched a minor refresh to the iPad Pro line up with the A12Z chip and a better rear camera, this was basically launched to buy them time whilst they developed their M1 chip and miniLED for the line up. Otherwise it would have been about 2.5 years before it got refreshed.

So looking at the line up now, the obvious update to the line up would be the 11” getting the miniLED display, and as we have heard rumours of wireless charging via an all glass back have been shelved, it makes me think if Apple would just refresh the 11” with miniLED to again buy them time whilst they work on the full redesign with some form of wireless charging, but still rocking the M1 chip.

As let’s be honest and as you have said yourself the iPad Pro doesn’t really need any hardware changes at this point and with Apples hands full of redesigns during 2022 (iMac Pro, Mac Pro, MacBook Air, Mac mini, iPhone 14 Pro/Max, possibly new designed Apple Watch), whereas the miniLED update to the 11” will probably be enough of an upgrade for people in the market for an 11” iPP to keep the line up selling for the next year or so… allowing Apple to then launch the newly designed iPP’s in spring 2023… giving the current 12.9” a two year refresh cycle and the 11” a year refresh.

The 2021 12.9" chassis is just slightly thicker than the 2018/2020 but for the most part, it's still the same. I don't think adding Mini-LED to the 11" will require major chassis redesign.

Assuming the M2 is available this year for MacBook Air and Mac mini, I think it's feasible that Apple just goes straight to M2 11" Mini-LED alongside the 12.9" released sometime in September-November. That keeps the iPad Pros within the typical 15-18 month release gap. If there's a shortage of the M2 chip, Apple could just have long backorders.

 

[James Godfrey]

The 2021 12.9" chassis is just slightly thicker than the 2018/2020 but for the most part, it's still the same. I don't think adding Mini-LED to the 11" will require major chassis redesign.

Assuming the M2 is available this year for MacBook Air and Mac mini, I think it's feasible that Apple just goes straight to M2 11" Mini-LED alongside the 12.9" released sometime in September-November. That keeps the iPad Pros within the typical 15-18 month release gap. If there's a shortage of the M2 chip, Apple could just have long backorders.

Yeah it is most likely what’s going to happen is the iPP refreshed alongside the Air with the M2 in the fall.

However, if the shelving of Apples original wireless charging idea has delayed the development of the next iPP it’s quite possible we could see a minor refresh to the 11” in the spring with the full redesign with M2 coming early next year.

After all they launched the M1 iMac and iPad Pro’s 6 months after the initial M1 products were launched, we could see the same thing happen again, MacBook Air, entry Pro and mini in the fall with the iMac and iPP landing in the spring.

But not giving the iPP any sort of refresh until Spring 2023 will mean the device will be untouched for 2 whole years, something Apple has never done with the pros as far as I am aware, and I can imagine they are eager to get the XDR display in the 11” at this point, as that device hasn’t really had much improvement since 2018.

 

[DeepIn2U]

I'm gonna go with no for the following reasons:

1. M1 debuted on M1 MBA and 13" MBP back in November 10, 2020, then a few months before the iPad Pro got the M1 on April 20, 2021.
2. Apple tends to, lately, release Pro model devices after the late Autumn season. This means Back To School events/offers expired allowing Apple to provide no discounts for new Pro model units and reap the full margins.

M2 seems to be ready for 2022 MBA release, maybe a Mac Mini as well. Yet I think iPad Pro models will get the next M-chip iteration, be it M2 or whatever it's called, in the fall as the performance is shown off best in a Mac.

But I do think it sucks not to be part of Apple's engineering teams to see the first had performance months before general public gets to see it. sucks for me, not for Apple bringing the heat!

 

[SkiHound2]

I am guessing no.

For one, the iPad model that desperately need a refresh is the Air, so it is a lock for the spring event and those registered numbers should include them. Not sure if another size of the Air is even meaningful though when the mini exists.

Then for two, while XDR upgrade is welcomed, but if this is the only change for the 11" then it may be a hard sell, especially if it comes with price increase like the 2021 12.9" did. Therefore I think Apple will definitely wait for the M2 to be available, then both the 11" and 12.9" will roll out with it, together with the 11" XDR upgrade.

That's my thinking as well. We'll likely get iPad Air 5 this Spring and new Ipad Pros this fall. I also think that beyond an upgraded screen on the 11" and a bump in processors, the upgrades will be pretty minimal; camera tweaks and the like.

 

[johntw]

The next iPP update with be a redesign. The holiday quarter less than stellar for the iPad line. They will want to reinvigorate the iPP lineup this fall as the current iPP design will be 4-years old. These will be “landscape first” products positioned as laptop replacements more than ever before. I’d also expect all new accessories. A new Apple Pencil, a new Smart Keyboard Folio, and a redesigned Magic Keyboard.

 

[James Godfrey]

The next iPP update with be a redesign. The holiday quarter less than stellar for the iPad line. They will want to reinvigorate the iPP lineup this fall as the current iPP design will be 4-years old. These will be “landscape first” products positioned as laptop replacements more than ever before. I’d also expect all new accessories. A new Apple Pencil, a new Smart Keyboard Folio, and a redesigned Magic Keyboard.

The landscape rumours are only rumoured for a future iPad Pro, not necessarily the next iPad Pro, I doubt that will actually happen this time.

I doubt a new keyboard at this stage with the minor refresh to the keyboard just last year with the new colour option and the extra space for the thicker 12.9 chassis.

The Smart Keyboard folio has never been redesigned, only altered in size for various models, so I would expect that to get discontinued when a Magic Keyboard 2 launches (as that will likely have a tablet mode where it collapses down).

As for the Apple Pencil, this is yet another thing I doubt will happen anytime soon either, what else could the Apple Pencil actually do that’s majorly different to what it does now.

I expect this years iPP’s will look exactly the same, with the 11” getting miniLED, M2 chips and slight camera bumps, that’s pretty much it, they could also add the rumoured wireless charging… but who even wants that on an iPad.

 

[johntw]

The landscape rumours are only rumoured for a future iPad Pro, not necessarily the next iPad Pro, I doubt that will actually happen this time.

I doubt a new keyboard at this stage with the minor refresh to the keyboard just last year with the new colour option and the extra space for the thicker 12.9 chassis.

The Smart Keyboard folio has never been redesigned, only altered in size for various models, so I would expect that to get discontinued when a Magic Keyboard 2 launches (as that will likely have a tablet mode where it collapses down).

As for the Apple Pencil, this is yet another thing I doubt will happen anytime soon either, what else could the Apple Pencil actually do that’s majorly different to what it does now.

I expect this years iPP’s will look exactly the same, with the 11” getting miniLED, M2 chips and slight camera bumps, that’s pretty much it, they could also add the rumoured wireless charging… but who even wants that on an iPad.

Think what the marketing needs to be to increase sales, and then think of how they can achieve it. I highly doubt they’ll be the same at all. We’ll see whose right ? Probably somewhere it between. Apple would love getting folks to buy all new accessories. I don’t count the small change to the 12.9” Magic Keyboard as something to keep it from being updated. It is way too heavy for offering such limited viewing angles and use cases for all the hype it gets.

 

[James Godfrey]

Think what the marketing needs to be to increase sales, and then think of how they can achieve it. I highly doubt they’ll be the same at all. We’ll see whose right ? Probably somewhere it between. Apple would love getting folks to buy all new accessories. I don’t count the small change to the 12.9” Magic Keyboard as something to keep it from being updated. It is way too heavy for offering such limited viewing angles and use cases for all the hype it gets.

It will always be extremely heavy to counter the weight of the iPad Pro, the weight isn’t ever likely to change with the magic keyboard.

The only thing that could change is function keys and a tablet mode, but Apple will likely keep the current magic keyboard as it is for a while.

Since 2018 the iPad Pro hasn’t really changed much at all…

2018 - 2020 minor refreshed cameras and a slightly (and I mean slightly better chip)

2020-2021 slightly better chip, better front facing camera and miniLED in one model of the sizes.

The reason why each refresh is so minimal is because the hardware has simply hit its peak, they are digging for ways to make the hardware better, now rumoured to be adding features no one has even asked for or wants… wireless charging what the hell is all that about.

Landscape cameras… yeah it will be welcomed but that’s an awful lot of shifting the internals around to make that happen for such a minor improvement overall, the only thing that will benefit from that change is FaceTime, seems like a lot of leg work for such a minor improvement.

The apple logo becoming landscape, what… the same apple logo which is covered with a case of some kind 99% of the time, seems a bit pointless to me.

 

[johntw]

Since 2018 the iPad Pro hasn’t really changed much at all…

Hence why it’s time.

 

[TheRealAlex]

2022 Strategy.

#1. buy Samsung QD-OLED Gaming monitor
#2. buy Samsung 12.4” OLED Tab S8+ and have the same display as a 2024 iPad Pro today
#3. buy new Apple Watch 8 46mm
#4. wait for new M3 MacBook Pro in 2023
#5. Keep old 2018 11” iPad Pro and Magic Keyboard

unless the 11” MiniLED iPad Pro has many more dimming zones and faster reacting so we don’t get this smearing or ghosting then No I’m not even Preordering until it’s indepently tested and NOT by Youtubers.

 

[Digitalguy]

There are exactly ZERO chances of an updated to the iPad pro in the first half of the year. We already know what most of the updates will be in the second half (glass back/logo for magsafe), likely mini-led for the 11 pro with a price bump and M2. That's mostly it... There is very little Apple can do to improve the pro hardware-wise and rumors confirm it. The rest is pure speculation by random people on forums... At this point the only real improvement that can push people to upgrade their pro is some compelling software features exclusive to the (more recent) pro (desktop mode to support external monitors for one).

 

[Abazigal]

The next iPP update with be a redesign. The holiday quarter less than stellar for the iPad line. They will want to reinvigorate the iPP lineup this fall as the current iPP design will be 4-years old. These will be “landscape first” products positioned as laptop replacements more than ever before. I’d also expect all new accessories. A new Apple Pencil, a new Smart Keyboard Folio, and a redesigned Magic Keyboard.

I doubt we will see faceID move to landscape mode because that's where you need to put the wireless charging mechanism for the Apple Pencil.

 

[Digitalguy]

I doubt we will see faceID move to landscape mode because that's where you need to put the wireless charging mechanism for the Apple Pencil.

And that's also why Samsung, that has the camera in the right spot like a laptop, charges the stylus from the back of the tablet (which is less convenient unless you have the cover on). Apple will not do that.

 

[johntw]

And that's also why Samsung, that has the camera in the right spot like a laptop, charges the stylus from the back of the tablet (which is less convenient unless you have the cover on). Apple will not do that.

I wonder if Apple would ever use a notch on their products?

 

[Digitalguy]

I wonder if Apple would ever use a notch on their products?

Good point. Who knows. But while I am 100% fine with the notch on the upcoming Tab S8 ultra (which I plan to buy), I would not be on iPad. Why? The Samsung notch was not made to add face id but to copy Center stage AND to make the bezel even thinner than on iPad pro and Tab S7 in order to achieve 14.6in. Still the notch is extremely small (way smaller than on Macs) and does not impact videos on a 16:10 devices. And personally I NEVER use portrait mode in a 16.10 device (I have forced rotation to landscade for everything on my S7+).
On iPad you would probably need a larger notch for face id if the bezel space is needed for the pencil charging and I do use portrait mode on iPads thanks to a suitable aspect ratio.

 

[James Godfrey]

I doubt we will see faceID move to landscape mode because that's where you need to put the wireless charging mechanism for the Apple Pencil.

Yeah this is exactly why I don’t think the iPad Pro will become landscape focused this year or anytime soon for that matter as it would require a complete redesign to achieve it, I don’t think people realise how big the charging mechanism is for the Apple Pencil there is no way that and the camera can be in the same place.

In order to achieve the camera being there, the Apple Pencil charging module would have to be moved to what is currently the top, the speakers would have to relocate to what is currently the left side and be downward firing, as otherwise the pencil would be covering the current speaker grills.

It’s seems like a lot of work for a marginal improvement to video calls IMO, plus it would likely degrade the sound quality of the device.

2022 Strategy.

#1. buy Samsung QD-OLED Gaming monitor
#2. buy Samsung 12.4” OLED Tab S8+ and have the same display as a 2024 iPad Pro today
#3. buy new Apple Watch 8 46mm
#4. wait for new M3 MacBook Pro in 2023
#5. Keep old 2018 11” iPad Pro and Magic Keyboard

unless the 11” MiniLED iPad Pro has many more dimming zones and faster reacting so we don’t get this smearing or ghosting then No I’m not even Preordering until it’s indepently tested and NOT by Youtubers.

In regards to #2, you will likely need to then upgrade it again in 2025/26 due to burn in issues, there is a reason why Apple never went with OLED on the iPads.

 

[Digitalguy]

In regards to #2, you will likely need to then upgrade it again in 2025/26 due to burn in issues, there is a reason why Apple never went with OLED on the iPads.

While I think miniled is a wise decision, especially for laptops, burn-in is much less of an issue on phones and tablets than some people tend to believe (often based on how old OLED panels behaved years ago). After 1.5 years I have zero burn-in issue with my S7+ and I don't expect any over at least the next 5 years, just like I have none in my OLED smartphones since 2017.
OLED is instead the wrong choice in laptops and monitors, that have fixed UI elements and whose screen tend to be on much longer, especially when used plugged in (mobile devices are rarely used when plugged in).
Personally, I do avoid and advise against OLED laptops and monitors, but I also regularly comment to correct the wrong ideas about OLED on tablets.

 

[James Godfrey]

While I think miniled is a wise decision, especially for laptops, burn-in is much less of an issue on phones and tablets than some people tend to believe (often based on how old OLED panels behaved years ago). After 1.5 years I have zero burn-in issue with my S7+ and I don't expect any over at least the next 5 years, just like I have none in my OLED smartphones since 2017.
OLED is instead the wrong choice in laptops and monitors, that have fixed UI elements and whose screen tend to be on much longer, especially when used plugged in (mobile devices are rarely used when plugged in).
Personally, I do avoid and advise against OLED laptops and monitors, but I also regularly comment to correct the wrong ideas about OLED on tablets.

Yeah I think people have varied views on the OLED burn in issue, but I suppose Apple look at the user base of iPad Pro users as artists, photo editors, video editors etc, who often spend hours with static UI element on the screen and decided not to go with OLED for that exact reason.

As people are already suffering burn in with series 5 and 6 apple watches, I can imagine the uproar if apple would have gone OLED having users complaining of burn in next year or the year after that on a $1099 device.

 

[TheRealAlex]

Yeah this is exactly why I don’t think the iPad Pro will become landscape focused this year or anytime soon for that matter as it would require a complete redesign to achieve it, I don’t think people realise how big the charging mechanism is for the Apple Pencil there is no way that and the camera can be in the same place.

In order to achieve the camera being there, the Apple Pencil charging module would have to be moved to what is currently the top, the speakers would have to relocate to what is currently the left side and be downward firing, as otherwise the pencil would be covering the current speaker grills.

It’s seems like a lot of work for a marginal improvement to video calls IMO, plus it would likely degrade the sound quality of the device.


In regards to #2, you will likely need to then upgrade it again in 2025/26 due to burn in issues, there is a reason why Apple never went with OLED on the iPads.

Ive only had OLED phones for the last 10 years, Notes and iPhones no burn in. OLED TVs and Laptops no burn in. OLED Nintendo Switch No Burn in.