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iPhone/Android: In Smartphone Wars, Darwinism Triumphs Over Intelligent Design

S

samcraig

macrumors P6
Original poster
Jun 22, 2009
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http://blogs.zdnet.com/perlow/?p=11516&tag=nl.e539

Great blog entry that looks at the competitive landscape. As I've mentioned before - I don't think the iPhone has much to worry about at this point for any phone being it's mudererer. However, zdnet blogger has the same viewpoint as I do that the real victims will be blackberry, nokia, etc and explains why.

A worthy read...
 
That was a good article. Personally, I think that Nokia, Palm, and Windows Mobile are on the edge of extinction now. I liked his idea that RIM should buy Palm and incorporate WebOS.
 
Nokia on the edge of extinction? Yeah, in the US maybe. Globally they are still the big dog.

I think android has a real fragmentation problem. There are brand new android phones being sold today with at least 3 generations of the software (1.5; 1.6, 2.0); I don't know if that's it. Moreover, every company has its own skin. Yes that provides choice, but it also creates confusion. How is the average consumer even going to know what an "android" phone can do?

This might sound like a little thing to tech-savvy users, but I think it will prove daunting to a lot of people buying their first smartphone.
 
ucfgrad93 said:
That was a good article. Personally, I think that Nokia, Palm, and Windows Mobile are on the edge of extinction now. I liked his idea that RIM should buy Palm and incorporate WebOS.
Click to expand...

Why do you think Nokia are on the verge of extinction? :confused:

canalysq309.002.png
 
QCassidy352 said:
This might sound like a little thing to tech-savvy users, but I think it will prove daunting to a lot of people buying their first smartphone.
Click to expand...

We already see smartphone users grouped by experience, need, availability and other factors.

No reason someone can't buy an iPhone to start with, and graduate to more powerful devices later on.

Or they can start with a more "daunting" device, just as many people jump right into more difficult cameras, audio systems, cars, you name it... and figure them out.

Not every device model has to be dumbed down so that anybody without technical aptitude can use it.
 
Windows Mobile! Windows Mobile is on the verge of extinction! If I were to create a flock of Windows Mobile on this island, you wouldn't have anything to say!
 
I am pretty sure nokia reported a loss of over 1 billion dollars for the last quarter.
 
dread said:
I am pretty sure nokia reported a loss of over 1 billion dollars for the last quarter.
Click to expand...

That was largely due to a writedown in the NSN division (the bit that makes the equipment that powers the network, jointly owned with Siemens). Their handset division was doing well.

I suppose it is to be expected on MacRumors, but these suggestions that Apple is going to crush everyone else is truly hilarious. They may gain traction in the US, but I don't see it happening everywhere else. Crippled, locked, expensive, flimsy iPhone vs. Open, unlocked, cheap, more rugged HTC/Nokia/Samsung/SE/etc? No brainer.

The most recent smartphone marketshare report shows that RIM and Android are the ones gaining this quarter, not Apple.
 
sorchard said:
That was largely due to a writedown in the NSN division (the bit that makes the equipment that powers the network, jointly owned with Siemens). Their handset division was doing well.

I suppose it is to be expected on MacRumors, but these suggestions that Apple is going to crush everyone else is truly hilarious. They may gain traction in the US, but I don't see it happening everywhere else. Crippled, locked, expensive, flimsy iPhone vs. Open, unlocked, cheap, more rugged HTC/Nokia/Samsung/SE/etc? No brainer.

The most recent smartphone marketshare report shows that RIM and Android are the ones gaining this quarter, not Apple.
Click to expand...

Actually, the suggestion under discussion is that android is going to crush everyone else. The section of your post that I've bolded pretty well identifies your intent in this discussion, and it rhymes with "bowl."
 
sorchard said:
I suppose it is to be expected on MacRumors, but these suggestions that Apple is going to crush everyone else is truly hilarious.
Click to expand...

Point out where in this thread it states that Apple will cripple everyone. The fact is that a lot of OSes (i.e. OSX and Android) are stepping their game up and a lot of others are falling short.

As far as manufactuers go: Apple, HTC, dare I say Motorola (the droid just doesn't do it for me but it can't be denied as a good device) are beating out a lot of the competiton. RIM just hasn't come up with anything worthwhile lately, Palm's latest lost luster after it came out (more hype from videos of it then the actual product) and Nokia and Sony Ericsson come out with generally the same items give or take a few bells and whistles, and a James Bond price tag ( I am curious about Sony's latest and it's ability to implement Android).
 
kdarling said:
We already see smartphone users grouped by experience, need, availability and other factors.

No reason someone can't buy an iPhone to start with, and graduate to more powerful devices later on.

Or they can start with a more "daunting" device, just as many people jump right into more difficult cameras, audio systems, cars, you name it... and figure them out.

Not every device model has to be dumbed down so that anybody without technical aptitude can use it.
Click to expand...

I disagree with the idea that smartphones like the iPhone are dumbed down for the average users. It is what an excellent UI is supposed to do. The best UI is a simplified, minimalistic interface while the technical aspects of the software are hidden. The problem that many of these phones that haven't been 'dumbed down' is that they don't make these things easy for the end user to use. They're designed by engineers essentially for engineers. It is why it's not only the average Joe using the iPhone but rather a wide range of people choose to use it who also happen to be extremely tech-savvy. Most people want their phones to just accomplish the task they want it to do and aren't necessarily concerned with extra features they rarely use. I think it's a testament to the iPhone UI that you see YouTube videos of two-year olds using it and not a detriment.



That being said one could argue that the iPhone is lacking in features (such as 3rd party multitasking) and it is here that Apple has dumbed down the device. I partially agree but don't think it's necessarily the case. Firstly, I think that the 1st and second generations won't be able to multitask due to lack of RAM and Apple will wait 'til original 3G users are out of contract to upgrade the OS next year. Secondly, I think Apple likes to take their time in order for them to deliver what may be, in their minds, the perfect solution. An example of this is copy/paste. It took them forever to do it but many consider it the best implementation on a smartphone.

OllyW said:
Why do you think Nokia are on the verge of extinction? :confused:
Click to expand...

Because Symbian is going nowhere and Android will eventually crush it. Their market share is rapidly declining and have reported huge losses. I'd be surprised in 10 years if Nokia is still making their own software. I think that they will will eventually be a hardware maker (and may be the best at it) for Android. People think that Android as an iPhone killer and I don't think so. I think it's a WinMo/Palm/Symbian killer.
 
Interesting to consider is that some manufactures have ownership of their OS. As in there's no competition amongst that OS.

RIM and Apple, for example, both have devices which have unique OS and therefor no competition WITHIN their family.

Android clearly has competition within their family. And this is a good thing as it will promote advancements amongst the phone manufacturers as they try to gain marketshare. Darwinism will indeed play a role. This is really the only place one could use the term "killer"

Then, of course, as the article suggests - there's competition and marketshare amongs the different platforms.
 
RoboCop001 said:
Windows Mobile! Windows Mobile is on the verge of extinction! If I were to create a flock of Windows Mobile on this island, you wouldn't have anything to say!
Click to expand...
"Now wait a minute. This isn't some OS that was wiped out by a stock market crash, or the fall of a superpower. Windows Mobile had their shot, and the consumers selected them, for extinction."
:D
 
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