Other iPhone Upgrade Pricing

[1800AirTAG]

Inspired by a comment I saw in a different thread, someone mentioned that it only costs $x per upgrade if you upgrade the iPhone every year.

This got me curious, so I decided to crunch some numbers, and this is what I found.

Now, this many, many factors could change the results in question, so for simplicity, I went ahead and tried to take "averages."

So all the numbers are based on:

1. Buying the 128GB iPhone PRO (but not Max)
2. Tax is based on 7%, which is just about the U.S national average based on a quick google search.
3. If the phone is upgraded every year, I did not include Apple Care+, but for 2+ years, I included it since the warranty will expire after 12 months, and it is probably worth having if you keep the phone past 12 months.
4. I am NOT accounting for potential inflation.
5. Resale/trade-in price is based on a google search so even that will vary
   1. One thing I found, it does NOT matter how large the SSD is, apple just goes by model for trade-ins, so if you have a 128, or a 1TB you will see get the same trade-in price. Thus, the larger you go in SSD, the more money you lose on trade-ins.
6. All pricing is in USD

Years owned	Price with tax (7%)	Resale/trade-in (what apple gives you)	Paid out of pocket after deducting trade-in price	Paid Yearly (price divided by how many years owned)
1​	1077​	700​	377​	377​
2​	1277​	400​	877​	438.5​
3​	1277​	200​	1077​	359​
4​	1277​	80​	1197​	299.25​
5​	1277​	0​	1277​	255.4​

Why am I posting this?
I was very skeptical about upgrading every year due to the "cost", however, after this build-out, depending on:

1. what phone you actually get
2. if you are one to get AppleCare+ if you do plan on keeping it for longer than ~12 months
3. how much you actually get back in trade-in value

It may actually be worth upgrading every year. In my estimate above (which is my personal estimate), if I have it for 1 year, it costs ~$377/year, but throwing on AppleCare to keep it for two years, it costs ~$438/year, which, may as well buy it yearly and just rely on the yearly warranty that comes with it.

Is it just me, or do others see this as a good justification also?

 

[VuvuzelaiPhone]

Capitalism demands that you upgrade and will incentivize you to do so. These numbers might make sense on an individual level, hopefully people can look beyond that.

Buying what we need (and being honest about that need), when we need it, will go a long way toward reducing our impact. While Apple has good environmental practices, infinite growth isn't sustainable in any way.

 

[MisterSavage]

Don't need a justification. Being in the iPhone Upgrade Program is a splurge that I enjoy. My monthly payment is around $60 bucks a month for a Pro model.

 

[russell_314]

Inspired by a comment I saw in a different thread, someone mentioned that it only costs $x per upgrade if you upgrade the iPhone every year.

This got me curious, so I decided to crunch some numbers, and this is what I found.

Now, this many, many factors could change the results in question, so for simplicity, I went ahead and tried to take "averages."

So all the numbers are based on:

1. Buying the 128GB iPhone PRO (but not Max)
2. Tax is based on 7%, which is just about the U.S national average based on a quick google search.
3. If the phone is upgraded every year, I did not include Apple Care+, but for 2+ years, I included it since the warranty will expire after 12 months, and it is probably worth having if you keep the phone past 12 months.
4. I am NOT accounting for potential inflation.
5. Resale/trade-in price is based on a google search so even that will vary
   1. One thing I found, it does NOT matter how large the SSD is, apple just goes by model for trade-ins, so if you have a 128, or a 1TB you will see get the same trade-in price. Thus, the larger you go in SSD, the more money you lose on trade-ins.
6. All pricing is in USD

Years owned	Price with tax (7%)	Resale/trade-in (what apple gives you)	Paid out of pocket after deducting trade-in price	Paid Yearly (price divided by how many years owned)
1​	1077​	700​	377​	377​
2​	1277​	400​	877​	438.5​
3​	1277​	200​	1077​	359​
4​	1277​	80​	1197​	299.25​
5​	1277​	0​	1277​	255.4​

Why am I posting this?
I was very skeptical about upgrading every year due to the "cost", however, after this build-out, depending on:

1. what phone you actually get
2. if you are one to get AppleCare+ if you do plan on keeping it for longer than ~12 months
3. how much you actually get back in trade-in value

It may actually be worth upgrading every year. In my estimate above (which is my personal estimate), if I have it for 1 year, it costs ~$377/year, but throwing on AppleCare to keep it for two years, it costs ~$438/year, which, may as well buy it yearly and just rely on the yearly warranty that comes with it.

Is it just me, or do others see this as a good justification also?

I think only adding AppleCare to where you're keeping it for two years or longer is the problem with your system. AppleCare isn't the same as a warranty. If you drop your brand new iPhone face down onto the concrete as you're walking out of the Apple Store that warranty doesn't help at all.

My current phone, an iPhone 13 Pro Max is the only time I've upgraded after one year. I want to say it was $800 trade in but it might have been $700. I do remember they actually added the tax to my trade in but that might have been something they were doing at that one time.

I was thinking about upgrading to the 14 PM but if the design rumors are true I'll hold off.

 

[1800AirTAG]

I think only adding AppleCare to where you're keeping it for two years or longer is the problem with your system. AppleCare isn't the same as a warranty. If you drop your brand new iPhone face down onto the concrete as you're walking out of the Apple Store that warranty doesn't help at all.

My current phone, an iPhone 13 Pro Max is the only time I've upgraded after one year. I want to say it was $800 trade in but it might have been $700. I do remember they actually added the tax to my trade in but that might have been something they were doing at that one time.

I was thinking about upgrading to the 14 PM but if the design rumors are true I'll hold off.

That’s a really good point about apple care.

And I have played around with those numbers too, I just found it interesting on how the numbers played on, again, on my personal level, when compared to buying it every year through 4 years

 

[NoBoMac]

Add to what others said: think the math is off. Need to model it differently regarding years of ownership. And seeing that Apple is only giving up to $500 on a 13 right now, trade in is high.

So, working off the assumption that buying a 14 and newer going forward, trading in 13 for 14, trade in value same each year and halved every year after if not buying every year, the math looks more like this:

Spoiler: Table

MODEL	PRICE	TRADE	OoP	AVE/YR
14	$1,175.93	$500.00	$675.93
15	$1,175.93	$500.00	$675.93
16	$1,175.93	$500.00	$675.93
17	$1,175.93	$500.00	$675.93
18	$1,175.93	$500.00	$675.93
19	$1,175.93	$500.00	$675.93
			$4,055.58	$675.93
14	$1,175.93	$500.00	$875.93
15
16
17
18
19	$1,175.93	$0.00	$1,375.93
			$2,251.86	$375.31
14	$1,175.93	$500	$875.93
15
16
17	$1,175.93	$60.00	$1,315.93
			$2,191.86	$547.97

Top of table is every year, second chunk is every five years with AppleCare, last chunk is my typical pattern of every three years (with AppleCare, which I normally don't do but here to keep it consistent).

So, out-of-pockets of $4,055.58, $2,251.86, $2,191.86. Averages of $675.93, $375.31, $365.31 (through model 19 as others; $547.97 for four years) per year.

 

[Wags]

Won’t get $700 for trade in. Most offer under 50% for most recent model.

 

[sjperformance]

Don't need a justification. Being in the iPhone Upgrade Program is a splurge that I enjoy. My monthly payment is around $60 bucks a month for a Pro model.

Don't need it either. Been on the program for the last 3 years. Love it. Get 3% cashback on payments to citizen via apple card too. 8/24/2022 will be the 12th and final payment I'll make on the 13PM. 14PM is next.

 

[MisterSavage]

Don't need it either. Been on the program for the last 3 years. Love it. Get 3% cashback on payments to citizen via apple card too. 8/24/2022 will be the 12th and final payment I'll make on the 13PM. 14PM is next.

It was a such a PITA back in the day dealing with early upgrade fees and selling your old device. I just love the way it is now.

 

[Wags]

Basically locking in your trade in value at 50% and interest free financing if decide to keep.

 

[EmotionalSnow]

It was a such a PITA back in the day dealing with early upgrade fees and selling your old device. I just love the way it is now.

If only Apple would care enough to let more countries benefit from the Upgrade Program ...

 

[sjperformance]

If only Apple would care enough to let more countries benefit from the Upgrade Program ...

There’s many reasons why they haven’t. I’m sure they want to.

 

[AstroRexaur]

Add to what others said: think the math is off. Need to model it differently regarding years of ownership. And seeing that Apple is only giving up to $500 on a 13 right now, trade in is high.

So, working off the assumption that buying a 14 and newer going forward, trading in 13 for 14, trade in value same each year and halved every year after if not buying every year, the math looks more like this:

Spoiler: Table

MODEL	PRICE	TRADE	OoP	AVE/YR
14	$1,175.93	$500.00	$675.93
15	$1,175.93	$500.00	$675.93
16	$1,175.93	$500.00	$675.93
17	$1,175.93	$500.00	$675.93
18	$1,175.93	$500.00	$675.93
19	$1,175.93	$500.00	$675.93
			$4,055.58	$675.93
14	$1,175.93	$500.00	$875.93
15
16
17
18
19	$1,175.93	$0.00	$1,375.93
			$2,251.86	$375.31
14	$1,175.93	$500	$875.93
15
16
17	$1,175.93	$60.00	$1,315.93
			$2,191.86	$547.97

Top of table is every year, second chunk is every five years with AppleCare, last chunk is my typical pattern of every three years (with AppleCare, which I normally don't do but here to keep it consistent).

So, out-of-pockets of $4,055.58, $2,251.86, $2,191.86. Averages of $675.93, $375.31, $365.31 (through model 19 as others; $547.97 for four years) per year.

...and you need to add that you'll be with the same iPhone for 3/5 years (1 year apple warranty expired) hoping that some parts will not be defective or damaged (battery, speaker, Face ID etc). That will add repair/parts costs and, at the end upgrading yearly will be more cost effective.

 

[LacrosseChic]

Capitalism demands that you upgrade and will incentivize you to do so. These numbers might make sense on an individual level, hopefully people can look beyond that.

Buying what we need (and being honest about that need), when we need it, will go a long way toward reducing our impact. While Apple has good environmental practices, infinite growth isn't sustainable in any way.

This is the reason i will try to keep my phone for as long as I can, alternately pass it to my kids after a while.

 

[GuruZac]

I think only adding AppleCare to where you're keeping it for two years or longer is the problem with your system. AppleCare isn't the same as a warranty. If you drop your brand new iPhone face down onto the concrete as you're walking out of the Apple Store that warranty doesn't help at all.

My current phone, an iPhone 13 Pro Max is the only time I've upgraded after one year. I want to say it was $800 trade in but it might have been $700. I do remember they actually added the tax to my trade in but that might have been something they were doing at that one time.

I was thinking about upgrading to the 14 PM but if the design rumors are true I'll hold off.

Good point. Both my wife and I pay for month-to month AppleCare on my 13 Pro and her 13 Pro Max. These things are too expensive to not cover and it's extra $20/mo total, but we both received $1000 per 11 Pro on trade which made the upgrade from an 11 Pro to 13 Pro just $8/mo for me and $12/mo for my wife. So with both phones and AppleCare for both, it's $42/mo. Totally worth it for us. We are not upgrading this year though as the changes are too small. I want USB-C, so hopefully 2023 iPhone Pro models.

 

[Spaceboi Scaphandre]

I do not get you guys who buy a new iPhone every year.

 

[VuvuzelaiPhone]

...and you need to add that you'll be with the same iPhone for 3/5 years (1 year apple warranty expired) hoping that some parts will not be defective or damaged (battery, speaker, Face ID etc). That will add repair/parts costs and, at the end upgrading yearly will be more cost effective.

Wow, almost seems like they want to push you into buying a new phone.

These devices are pretty reliable nowadays, and you can still buy AppleCare+ if you have this fear. I’d also recommend advocating for right to repair so we can keep our devices running longer.

Apple needs you to buy a new phone, the planet does not.

 

[Momof9]

I buy a new phone every year or 2.... If they are really putting in the 48mb camera - I might be upgrading again this year. I was thinking about buying a nice camera...

Last year, I was offered such a huge deal for upgrading, I did it... I do usually switch out our oldest phone - we have an extra line that we use as a home phone and when our younger kids who don't have phones go somewhere, we can send it with them if needed (teens). We also have passed on older phones to kids as mini tablets with no service....

 

[Fred Zed]

it’ll be interesting for me this year, upgrade wise. Since I’m no longer with T-Mobile or any major USA carrier so will be forfeiting any incentives that they will be offering.

 

[webkit]

And seeing that Apple is only giving up to $500 on a 13 right now, trade in is high.

The current $500 trade-in is for a 12 Pro, not at 13. The 12 Pro launched about 22 months ago. The Apple trade-in value for a 12 Pro one year after launch (October 2021) was $640.

Won’t get $700 for trade in. Most offer under 50% for most recent model.

While not quite $700, the Apple trade-in value for a 12 Pro at one year (October 2021) was $640 which is about 64% of the original launch price for a 128GB 12 Pro. I would guess that a 13 Pro will be around the same when the 14s launch.

 

[MayaUser]

I bet if Apple will show the performance gains of the normal iphone 14...they will be compared to the iphone 13 and not with the 13 pro
If they would compare with the pro models...the gain could be 1% )))

 

[NoBoMac]

That will add repair/parts costs and, at the end upgrading yearly will be more cost effective.

Or not. Have only repaired/replaced one phone in 12 years of iPhone ownership.

With worst case that one needs to buy a whole new phone due to no AppleCare, still less out-of-pocket possibly. Example: on an every five years cycle, need to get two replacements, still about $300 dollars less than every year upgrade ($3703.72 vs $4,055.58; and that's assuming paying same price as originally paid [ie buy latest model at same price vs get previous year's model at slightly lower price]). And if with AppleCare every year and use the $99 repair option twice a year, still at $620 less out-of-pocket ($3425.50 vs $4,055.58).

 

[xxray]

Add to what others said: think the math is off. Need to model it differently regarding years of ownership. And seeing that Apple is only giving up to $500 on a 13 right now, trade in is high.

It looks like Apple was offering $640 for a 12 Pro at launch of the 13 series last year: https://web.archive.org/web/20210928085544/https://www.apple.com/shop/trade-in

But yes, trade-in value is still overestimated in this case.

 

[xxray]

Another added expense of upgrading every year: the cost of accessories (cases, screen protectors).

 

[xxray]

I replicated what you did but based off Apple's trade-in values that were available around the release of the 13 lineup, and unfortunately, it makes the case for holding on to your device as long as possible:

Years owned	Price with tax (7%)	Resale/trade-in (what apple gives you)	Paid out of pocket after deducting trade-in price	Paid Yearly (price divided by how many years owned)
1	1077	640	437	437
2	1077	450	620	314
3	1077	240	837	279
4	1077	200	877	219
5	1077	50	1027	205

The situation worsens as you go up in storage models since Apple gives you the same trade-in amount for a 128GB Pro or a 1TB Pro. Then there's factoring in getting new cases, screen protectors, and other accessories you buy every time you get a new phone. That again reinforces the argument to hold on to your phone as long as possible.

Obviously, you can get more money for selling it rather than trading it in, but that's another analysis with average selling prices/depreciation after one year, Swappa/eBay selling fees, and shipping costs.