iPhone will never be as big as iPod.

[wongulous]

Let's take a moment in our delicious iPhone insanity and rumormongering adrenaline rush to be realistic here, to intelligently compile some facts and draw some educated conclusions.

The iPhone can never be bigger than the iPod. The iPod has sold 100 million units, is accessible to at least 8 languages, almost all sentient languages, and people in dozens or hundreds of countries. (Not to mention people who may be able to afford a $200 DAP but not $2000 over the course of a couple of years.)

Rival research firms IDC and IDG news report slightly different realities on unreleased numbers of current subscribers, with AT&T having the #1 spot as largest provider by millions of wireless subscribers, with 62.2 mil, but IDC reports that they only have 56.3 mil subs (making them #2). Last quarter, they gained about 10-12% growth.

The same research firms estimate that there are about 236-250 million wireless subscribers in the US.

So obviously this means that estimates of the iPhone giving AT&T 1-2 million customers is completely realistic, but if this 3-5 year AT&T exclusivity contract holds true, we won't see the same explosive growth as with the iPod (especially post-nano). Worldwide, in 3-4 years, we might see 100 million, but only if Apple significantly fleshes out the iPhone family to attract and keep a larger target demographic than luxury high-end smartphone users AND they release the iPhone in Europe, Asia, and other GSM markets such as South America.

What does this mean to you? Probably a phone-less iPod, if they do not want growth to become stagnant or to lose share in the DAP market.

 

[terrrrrible]

Yeah, so...

 

[tasslehawf]

So I'm guessing you're not getting one. Do you feel better now?

 

[whooleytoo]

The iPod dominates its industry, and has sold 100m or so in almost 6 years.

The iPhone is aiming only for a 1% market share, and yet that'd be enough for roughly 10m units in its first year alone. I'd say there's a lot more potential for growth (and for opening new lines of revenue for Apple) with the iPhone.

 

[someguy]

I'm confused as to the point of this thread.

The Mac may never be as big as the iPod either. Do you have a thread about that as well?

 

[FleurDuMal]

"iPhone Will Never Be As Big As Jesus"

Or will it?

 

[clevin]

im fully expecting next gen of iPod to be like iPhone minus phone function, I would definitely get one if it is priced at $300, with FM radio.

 

[roland.g]

The iPhone is actually .4 inches taller than my 40GB iPod at the same width. I'd say it's already bigger. And twice the size of my nano.

 

[someguy]

The iPhone is actually .4 inches taller than my 40GB iPod at the same width. I'd say it's already bigger. And twice the size of my nano.

Smartass.

 

[roland.g]

im fully expecting next gen of iPod to be like iPhone minus phone function, I would definitely get one if it is priced at $300, with FM radio.

If that happens, Apple may be banking on the fact that once you have an iPhone, you won't need an iPod like that. Once people see other people's iPhones they will want one, etc. It won't be as big, but still that's the idea. I doubt they will do the iPod in iPhone interface and use a HDD over flash because of the battery drain and thickness.

 

[clevin]

If that happens, Apple may be banking on the fact that once you have an iPhone, you won't need an iPod like that. Once people see other people's iPhones they will want one, etc. It won't be as big, but still that's the idea. I doubt they will do the iPod in iPhone interface and use a HDD over flash because of the battery drain and thickness.

just hard to imagine after this iPhone, any iPod with classic UI, and without WiFi, would be attractive at all. After all, Apple is marketing iPhone as PDA+iPod+phone.

 

[SteveM8]

New Ipod

APPLE WILL release a new Ipod that looks like the Iphone but minus the Iphone features. It will be touch screen, same size screen and have Ipod features, BT headphones and coverflow/video/photo. Mark my words! Actually, sooner than many think!

 

[applehappy]

You lack vision. Ipod didn't come out THAT long ago and at first it was a $500 device with a music store that barely had any content. Most laughed at it. It was a multi year process getting it mainstream. Look forward and think about the OS on iphone maturing and offering a myriad of content both leisure and business oriented and then imagine a line of three or four iphones varying in price and capabilities. Then get out of your AT&T argument and think about a world-wide market and the eventual release of these phones through other companies. AT&T was willing to make serious structural changes to the way they do business to accomodate. Once it sells millions and makes many billions of dollars, don't you think that other cell companies, etc. will jump through anything to get onboard? Maybe iphone won't become as huge as some think, but if you think it doesn't have that *potential* then you are missing it bro.

 

[Doylem]

I remember giving my 2G iPod to my mum, a few years ago. She hated everything 'technological', so I just said "You won't break it... see if you can work it". Thirty seconds later she had the earphones in, a big smile on her face and tapping her fingers to the music. This is what Apple did with the iPod: making complex things simple to use. If Apple can simplify phone functions in a similar way, the sky's the limit.

I've had capable phones, but, oh, all those nested menus and huge instruction manuals. Crazy...

I look forward to getting an iPhone when it's released in UK. That may be version two... maybe a cheaper, stripped-down model. If i can use it out of the box... without poring over a manual... then I'll know that Apple have another global winner on their hands.

Ironically, this is probably the swansong for the classic simplicity of the 'original' iPod concept.

 

[tasslehawf]

APPLE WILL release a new Ipod that looks like the Iphone but minus the Iphone features. It will be touch screen, same size screen and have Ipod features, BT headphones and coverflow/video/photo. Mark my words! Actually, sooner than many think!

I was just thinking: remember the sony clié. I was an everything device and not a phone and it died a horrible death. What if this is the end of the standalone ipod. Why would they put all those great interface features into something that was just an ipod?

 

[dashiel]

the ipod is dead, long live the iphone

the ipod is dead and the iphone killed it.

i could go in to the whole history and strategy behind it, but basically when at&t's exclusive contract ends there will be no more ipod. the nano and the shuffle will still exist, but the big one will be gone.

instead you'll walk in to your local apple store buy the iphone (which may well revert back to the ipod name depending on the marketing value of iphone at the time) plunk down $250 for a 60GB flash memory version and be off. the interface will change based on what services you enable, hiding the phone feature unless you want it.

the at&t strategy is there to give the industry time to develop larger format flash drives, let apple get used to the intricacies of the cell phone market and allow component costs to drop, while at the same time protecting ipod sales to a certain degree. ideally it will also allow time for widespread wimax distribution, which i'm hoping -- probably far too optimistically -- google or apple will offer some sort of flat rate data/voice service. foregoing the need for cell carriers altogether.

or perhaps the opposite happens and the iphone dies in 5 years, while the ipod just adopts all the iphone features. same difference really.

 

[marksman]

iPhone will never be as big as telephone.

 

[someguy]

I love the uncanny psychic powers so many of us at MR seem to possess.

 

[earnjam]

"iPhone Will Never Be As Big As Jesus"

Or will it?

"Christianity will go. It will vanish and shrink.... I don't know what will go first, the iPhone or Christianity. The iPhone is more popular than Jesus now. Jesus was all right, but his disciples were thick and ordinary. It's them twisting it that ruins it for me." - John Lennon on the iPhone

 

[surferfromuk]

Yes Iphone will never be as big as Ipod - it'll be TEN TIMES BIGGER!!

My feeling is gen one will sell 20 million units in the next two years in the USA.

Once the s/w updates come and we all accept the hardware isn't changing for some time and really cool stuff just keeps coming then over the next 2 years 20 million people will buy one!

Once this phone hits Europe, Asia - boom - another 40 million over the next two years..

Then the iphone Nano and BOOM - 50 million US in Year one, 100 million worldwide..the Nano is where the real volume is going to be.

Heck, Nokia ship 100million 'piece of crap' phones a quarter!!!

This is what the phone companies are really terrified of - the iphone nano!

So given that figure now how many iphone nano's do you really expect Apple to ship ??? 25 mill a quarter seems like a LOW estimate!!

Iphone 'Gen Two' comes in 2010 - BOOM - this time it's 100 million worldwide including USA within 12 months.

My prediction is that within two years the Apple iphone product familiy will be shipping 100million phones a year...EASILY!

 

[plinden]

im fully expecting next gen of iPod to be like iPhone minus phone function, I would definitely get one if it is priced at $300, with FM radio.

I would get it priced at $250 without an FM radio, which would just be useless circuitry to me. Maybe Apple will provide something like an FM radio addon.

 

[cdewitt]

Let's take a moment in our delicious iPhone insanity and rumormongering adrenaline rush to be realistic here, to intelligently compile some facts and draw some educated conclusions.

The iPhone can never be bigger than the iPod. The iPod has sold 100 million units, is accessible to at least 8 languages, almost all sentient languages, and people in dozens or hundreds of countries. (Not to mention people who may be able to afford a $200 DAP but not $2000 over the course of a couple of years.)

Rival research firms IDC and IDG news report slightly different realities on unreleased numbers of current subscribers, with AT&T having the #1 spot as largest provider by millions of wireless subscribers, with 62.2 mil, but IDC reports that they only have 56.3 mil subs (making them #2). Last quarter, they gained about 10-12% growth.

The same research firms estimate that there are about 236-250 million wireless subscribers in the US.

So obviously this means that estimates of the iPhone giving AT&T 1-2 million customers is completely realistic, but if this 3-5 year AT&T exclusivity contract holds true, we won't see the same explosive growth as with the iPod (especially post-nano). Worldwide, in 3-4 years, we might see 100 million, but only if Apple significantly fleshes out the iPhone family to attract and keep a larger target demographic than luxury high-end smartphone users AND they release the iPhone in Europe, Asia, and other GSM markets such as South America.

What does this mean to you? Probably a phone-less iPod, if they do not want growth to become stagnant or to lose share in the DAP market.

clearly your new to the mac and have no clue that when the ipod first came out it was Mac only, cutting out a huge chunk of the market. To say that in 3 years or whenever apple give it to every carrier that this phone couldn't be BIGGER than the ipod is laughable. have a good day

 

[sjo]

The iPhone can never be bigger than the iPod. The iPod has sold 100 million units, is accessible to at least 8 languages, almost all sentient languages, and people in dozens or hundreds of countries. (Not to mention people who may be able to afford a $200 DAP but not $2000 over the course of a couple of years.)

iphone is the new ipod: the ipod market as such isn't growing much anymore, it doesn't make much sense to throw development resources to implement new versions of plain ipods. instead, they develop future ipod upgrades that include phone and camera functions.

 

[macaddicted]

Let's take a moment in our delicious iPhone insanity and rumormongering adrenaline rush to be realistic here, to intelligently compile some facts and draw some educated conclusions.

The iPhone can never be bigger than the iPod. The iPod has sold 100 million units, is accessible to at least 8 languages, almost all sentient languages, and people in dozens or hundreds of countries. (Not to mention people who may be able to afford a $200 DAP but not $2000 over the course of a couple of years.)

Well yeah, because OS X is only available in US English I think it is pretty safe to assume that restriction will carry over to all the iPhones. And how many people have a $200 DAP and a cell phone already? Might this help to close the gap some?

Rival research firms IDC and IDG news report slightly different realities on unreleased numbers of current subscribers, with AT&T having the #1 spot as largest provider by millions of wireless subscribers, with 62.2 mil, but IDC reports that they only have 56.3 mil subs (making them #2). Last quarter, they gained about 10-12% growth.

The same research firms estimate that there are about 236-250 million wireless subscribers in the US.

So obviously this means that estimates of the iPhone giving AT&T 1-2 million customers is completely realistic, but if this 3-5 year AT&T exclusivity contract holds true, we won't see the same explosive growth as with the iPod (especially post-nano). Worldwide, in 3-4 years, we might see 100 million, but only if Apple significantly fleshes out the iPhone family to attract and keep a larger target demographic than luxury high-end smartphone users AND they release the iPhone in Europe, Asia, and other GSM markets such as South America.

Well then it's a good thing you came along; Apple would be lost without you. How about a European release this fall and an Asian release somtime next year? Obviously the iPhone in English thing has to be overcome, but hey Apple has good engineers so I am hopeful.

IIRC His Steveness has announced that Apple hopes to do 10 million units worldwide in 2008, or roughly 18 months from the US release. If Apple goes from 10 million units to 100 million units (or 90 million more units) in the space of 18-30 months (3 to 5 million units per month) I think Steve Jobs/Dorian Grey will do back handsprings across the MW 2010 stage.

What does this mean to you? Probably a phone-less iPod, if they do not want growth to become stagnant or to lose share in the DAP market.

Or perhaps they could take advantage of the high price to at once shore up their cannabilized flash based DAP market while simultaneously grabbing a large portion of the smartphone market?

 

[wongulous]

As funny as the claims that I'm being a psychic or some kind of an iPhone-hater are, it's funnier yet how people make judgments about me for this thread.

Quite honestly, I plan on getting an iPhone as soon as possible, and I'm not only as far as could be from a Mac n00b (in fact, I've never been much besides a lifetime Mac user and a *nix dabbler), I've actually been a huge wireless industry and cell phone geek since before I was even able to sign a contract. I've worked for 4 different wireless providers in various positions, including wireless retail, and I possess a lot of experience and knowledge in both sectors.

I think it would be awesome to be the first kid on the block with an iPhone. On the other hand, I'm not posting frantically to these forums like a spaz every two minutes with some new presumptuous take on every rumor and calling people haters or whatever else. I'm maintaining a bit of couth and decorum, or so I'd like to think. This thread, if you would closely examine my verbiage without inferring emotion, should show this.

Anyway... my point was merely that it'll take 6 years, if not longer, for the iPod's landmark success to occur for the iPhone even in the best of scenarios. iPhone will undoubtedly open new market segments, yes. But the weakest leak is the complication of having a service provider and monthly costs of a wireless phone. Wireless communication is not yet at a saturation point in the US, but it also may not go up 25% in a couple of years, or even 6 years.

Also, more importantly, my point with this was that the iPhone has a smaller potential market than the iPod; therefore, Apple will continue development for the iPod. And as soon as feasible, and satisfied with iPhone development, Apple will make the iPhone independent from AT&T.

Myself, this gives me some solace that I will have choices in the near future (likely before I save up the $1200-1500 to get myself and my partner iPhones and requisite accessories), including an iPod without the "phone" portion. Lamentably, I'd prefer the phone features integrated, but it is more the carrier choice and baggage that is the issue.

At any rate, this post was to facilitate discussion of the effects of continued but delayed iPod development and to gauge the importance of the iPhone but to balance it with the limiter that is AT&T, not to be negative or anything. I love the iPhone and find it a beautiful evolution of a convergence device!