I have never purchased Applecare. I have also never had a catastrophic failure of a Mac. Hard drives don't count, they are disposable items anyway. Throw it out and get one double or triple the size for the same money.
However, I also get the majority of my computers second hand and fix or build them myself, so the risk/cost/repair ratios for me are low.
I have had clients who have had catastrophic failure (motherboard, etc). The ones who have had Applecare have been very grateful, mostly the ones who don't, don't bother spending $500+ fixing the machine, they scrap it and upgrade to the newest model.
With Applecare, repairs are guaranteed to cost you $xxx per the two years of coverage (over CAN$500 in the case of a Powerbook). Without Applecare, repairs may be zero or they may be $700 or $1000.
Are you in a position to buy a new machine in 2 - 3 years time anyway? If you roll the dice and lose, are you likely to shrug it off and lay out the dough without being too bent out of shape? Are you likely to want to add components or upgrade the machine yourself (possibly voiding your Applecare). Do you plan to drop or dent your laptop, ever, or spill liquids into it (bye bye warranty coverage)? If so, don't buy Applecare.
Is your machine in a high use or higher risk environment? Do you want to use it for 4 years+ becore considering a replacement? Do you use the machine in a business environment where costs have to be accountable and budgeted for well in advance? Would a $500 - $1000 repair bill, or being forced to buy a new machine with no advance warning be destructive to your life/business/peace of mind? Then buy Applecare.
HOWEVER:
The cost of hardware repairs is NOTHING compared to the cost of losing years worth of data. Data recovery by the experts runs to thousands of dollars. Redoing your business and personal documents, and the cost of lost photos, music, emails etc. is far more impact than that. Every hard drive in the world will fail. Guaranteed. Some within 1 year, some will last 6 years. The bulk will fail in the 3 to 5 year range.
It's ludicrous to consider buying a hardware insurance plan unless you have already put into place a bulletproof data backup plan. My suggestion is a good big external Firewire drive for making a Clone of your boot drive plus regular data backups to, and also periodically archiving your User folder and data folders onto DVD-Rs
Thanks
Trevor
CanadaRAM.com