Is Bluray doomed?

[megfilmworks]

Looks like Blu-ray may follow HD DVD into the dustbins of history.

http://www.news.com/8301-10784_3-9877031-7.html?part=rss&subj=news&tag=2547-1_3-0-5

 

[davincijones]

Not the success of DVD but not doomed...

I don't think bluray will be doomed and I'm judging this off my own habits and those of my friends (so just as everyone else, I'm probably wrong) but I watch movies on my Xbox 360 through the video store AND if I like the movie and want to own a copy I buy it on blu to be watched on my PS3.

If the movie isn't available yet(Paramount and Universal flicks, etc) I add it to my buy list.

I think many people who say downloads are doomed don't take into account the large number of people that want to keep their technical knowledge to a minimum. These consumer just want a disk that they can pop in and go.

I think the future belongs to both formats. Hell, blu will exist just for the purists that want better video and sound than they can get from a download.

 

[GoCubsGo]

I agree with davincijones. The future is for both downloads and now apparently Bluray. Fact is I can tell you that unless you can push a button on a remote and download a movie without much know-how people I know like my parents aren't going to really buy into the whole download your content thing. Hell, I'm half their age and I don't do it all that much. I like DVDs.

 

[iSee]

"Doomed" is a sensational way to put it. But, yes, bluray will eventually be substantially replaced.

But it will take a long time before the bandwidth required is so widely available that downloads become the dominant form of delivery.

Bluray, on the other hand, doesn't have any extra infrastructure requirement.

----

But why would we listen to whoever wrote this? It's a bit incoherent. And either the people being quoted are morons or they've been quoted out of context:

"We can use HD discs to train consumers to move into digital, but it's a transition," said Warner Bros.' Dan Silverberg. "Downloaded content will come, but the consumer will get quicker tutorial into video-on-demand, etc., by owning a Blu-ray player or HD DVD."

How is using bluray more of a VOD tutorial than DVD???

People will get tired of replacing their favorite films to the trendy format of the moment. The price of the software ranging from $20 to $30 for Blu-ray discs right now will eventually drop. But digital copies costing less than $5 a pop, it's an easy decision for many.

Did anyone proofread this? And they seem to be comparing the price to buy a bluray disc to the cost of renting a high-def download.

We don't exactly have a sharp market analyst here.

 

[MikieMikie]

And to make matters ever more absurd:

• Consumers find it difficult to distinguish between HD and SD media.
• Has HDTV sell in has reached "mass consumer" numbers?
• More than 50% of households that are on the internet still use dial up!

It would be nice if we, as a relatively techno-savy group, represented the mainstream, but we are a very very small minority.

These kinds of articles are equally self-canceling -- a guy I work with recently quoted the NYTimes saying, "There's no future in HD downloads..."

Flip a coin. Place your bets.

 

[IJ Reilly]

Blu-ray is to DVD what DVD was to VHS. The new format will supplant the old one simply because content will gradually shift towards the new format, over a period of years. The entertainment industry will see to that. It's all well and good to say that consumers won't want to repurchase their favorite movies in the Blu-ray format, but if the previous transitions are any indication, a great many will. How many of us are still playing our VHS tape collections? As for downloads, I don't see it as being set to replace any hard format, for at least as long as it remains rental only.

 

[Techguy172]

Blue is certainly not doomed it will do really well People prefer Discs over downloaded content and all the will be going to Blu-ray now so It will do well until it's superior comes out.

 

[robanga]

I think that press reaction is an over-reaction. Let's face it the vast majority of the population does not care to bother with downloads and it only increases slightly as you make it easier in larger increments.

It will be the future but its going to take a long time. Discs have a long and healthy future. Uncle George and Aunt Penelope want to give their little niece and nephew a disney disk on christmas morning, not a card good for a download

 

[Tennesotans]

From what I've read -- BluRay's biggest competitor is DVD, not downloads. I consider my wife to be an excellent "canary in a coalmine" for most technologies. She's not technophobic but doesn't geek out on complexity.

She can DEFINITELY tell the difference between a HD feed and a SD feed.

I don't know if she can tell the difference between a DVD and ANY form of HD (bluray, hd dvd, directivo hd-lite, apple tv hd). While there might be 6x the amount of information being presented, the enjoyment factor increase just isn't that great.

This is on a 46" 1080p LCD at 9 feet.

Now, *I* can see softness in a DVD versus HD presentation. On our previous 37" LCD 1080p, I couldn't (thus the recent upgrade ).

I don't see how bluray is going to get much traction. How many people have 1080p LCD/plasma 50" or above? When will they have 1000 *compelling* movies in HD (I rented Bullitt on HD-DVD... NOT a compelling use of HD IMHO).

Now.. being able to rent 5000 movies... at the touch of a button... without leaving the couch.... using any TV sold in the last 4 years. SEEMS like this would work. Obviously time will tell

 

[watchmainspring]

This article was written by CNET exclusively for the purpose of claiming the rights for highlighting a potential controversy concerning the format "war" and subsequently expose consumers to more adds, even though the grounds for their argument (people will migrate exclusively to digital downloads) is far from reality and has little grounds of evidence to suggest it will ever even occur. Just because disc sales are declining, does not mean it is due to digital downloads increasing. Has Miss Ogg from CNET ever completed a statistics course?

I truly do wish that CNET would publish news reports and opinions that have greater grounds for exposure (I.E. valid and related research), instead of just uneducated "research hints". Shame on you, CNET.

 

[Fast Shadow]

Meh. More like DRM will be the downfall of digital distribution.

Until DRM is drastically improved so it's no longer consumer hostile, until bandwidth is such that someone can download an HD movie and begin playing it as quickly as if they had the disc in hand, until the image and sound quality of downloaded HD content is as good as a disc, and until all of the extras you can get with a disc are also available via download.. then disc isn't going anywhere.

 

[CWallace]

Yes it is "doomed", but if you get many, many years of good service out of it, is that such a bad thing?

Many of us had VHS and LaserDisc, and they were eventually supplanted by DVD. But we got many years if not decades of service out of them (I have VHS tapes and LDs two decades old that still work fine) so I don't begrudge DVD supplanting them.

I own Blu-Ray and I expect to get decades of use out of it, as well.

I think digital downloads are a good idea that, while burdened with some flaws now (resolution, DRM) will get better with time. So just as I transitioned from LD to DVD to BR, so I shall transition to digital downloads in the future.

 

[robrose20]

I don't think it is doomed, there will be plenty of people out there who will want to purchase their favorite movies and not have to store GB of data on a hard drive to do it. I think it will share a smaller percentage of units which enable someone to watch HD content, but I don't think it is dead.

 

[kolax]

Hard to say where I stand.

I own a lot of movies, and they are all now stored on my computer and will be accessed via Apple TV when I get one. Any new movies that I want to watch, I'll download rather than buying disc.

Convenience of being able to just have everything on a hard drive and have one finger access to it all.

If I did buy a Blu-Ray film, I'd end up ripping it to my hard drive for storage, so would defeat the purpose of having it on disc.

 

[FreeState]

And to make matters ever more absurd:

• Has HDTV sell in has reached "mass consumer" numbers?

Yes.

http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/02/19/worldwide-lcd-tv-shipments-surpass-crts-for-first-time-ever/

Feb 19 2008

"LCD TVs have overtaken CRT TVs for the first time in the history"

• More than 50% of households that are on the internet still use dial up!

These stats are over a year old now BTW:

"here’s the breakdown of various countries and their dialup access users as at December 2006:

Germany - 10%
South Korea - 4%
China - 15%
USA - 19%
Canada - 16%
France - 25%
UK - 15%
Brazil - 43%
India - 46%
Mexico - 44%
Russia - 52%"

http://www.tamingthebeast.net/blog/web-development/dialup-access-statistics-0407.htm

 

[pilotError]

Until download becomes portable (ie. you can pop it in the mini van for the kids), dvd isn't going anywhere. DVD's are cheap now ($4 - $9.99) while blu-ray has actually jumped even higher recently (19.99 - 32.99). You don't see blu-ray in any portable device or any low cost devices for that matter.

This will change over time, but the only way I see either format disappearing is widespread wimax rollouts so you can download pretty much anywhere (ubiquitous internet) at a reasonable enough speed.

 

[neoserver]

It is also important to note, that just because someone has broadband internet, doesn't mean they have the bandwidth capabilities to facilitate downloadable movies. you could have a DSL line, but be a long ways away from the CO, and won't have the full capabilities of the line.

Also, as long as there are ISPs such as Comcast who actively disrupt P2P connections (citing that it disrupts the internet experience for other customers), I can't see how consumers could engage in a high-bandwidth activity such as downloadable movie rentals (regardless of whether its P2P or not, video is still high-bandwidth)

 

[watchmainspring]

Until download becomes portable (ie. you can pop it in the mini van for the kids), dvd isn't going anywhere. DVD's are cheap now ($4 - $9.99) while blu-ray has actually jumped even higher recently (19.99 - 32.99). You don't see blu-ray in any portable device or any low cost devices for that matter.

This will change over time, but the only way I see either format disappearing is widespread wimax rollouts so you can download pretty much anywhere (ubiquitous internet) at a reasonable enough speed.

blu ray is in my notebook PC.

 

[kolax]

blu ray is in my notebook PC.

I think he means more of the likes of portable DVD players that cost $129 compared to $2000 for a Blu-Ray equipped laptop.

 

[secondcup]

I don't know guys (and gals)...I'm still not convinced that a digital file (wether it's MP3 for music, or whatever the leading video format may be) will replace physical media. Having grown up with the record album (remember that) and progressing through CD, MP3 and online downloads, I can tell you that the experiences are quite different.

I was all for buying music from iTunes, and did quite a bit of buying. What I'm starting to miss now is the experience of buying an album, reading the liner notes as I play it for the first time. The same goes for video purchases and downloading a file rather than buying a DVD. Downloading from iTunes is cool and revolutionary, but the experience of buying a physical product and holding in your hands is something that can never be replaced (sorry Apple).

Are there any other old fogies out there that get what I'm saying?

 

[andiwm2003]

with usb memory getting cheaper and ceaper i see this a a new format in 5 years or so.

and with downloads being much more convenient than renting a DVD i can see the HD DVD sales declining even more than in the past. you don't need to be able to stream movies in realtime HD. 30 min buffering and you're good to go. or download and watch later.

yes, blu ray will stay around for a long time but not as the dominating format for more than 5-6 years.

 

[nippyjun]

advances in compressing data may be the key to the death of disks and the takover of downloads.

 

[VideoFreek]

Blu-ray is to DVD what DVD was to VHS. The new format will supplant the old one simply because content will gradually shift towards the new format, over a period of years. The entertainment industry will see to that. It's all well and good to say that consumers won't want to repurchase their favorite movies in the Blu-ray format, but if the previous transitions are any indication, a great many will. How many of us are still playing our VHS tape collections? As for downloads, I don't see it as being set to replace any hard format, for at least as long as it remains rental only.

Or, it could be that Blu-ray is to DVD what Laserdisc was to VHS. That is, Blu-ray could become a sort of specialty item for videophiles and people with high-end HT setups, while the mass market moves directly to downloads for the majority of its movie-watching. I think the failure of Laserdisc to capture the mass market (outside of Japan) in the way that DVD and VHS did ought to be intensively studied by the people marketing Blu-ray right now, because in my view they are making many of the same mistakes, chief among them being keeping prices too high.

Blu-ray has won an important skirmish against HD-DVD, but has it won the overall war? The answer is clearly "not yet," but the $64,000 question is whether consumers will accept the digital download model for rentals and/or purchase. This will of course depend on many factors including the evolution of broadband in North America and Europe (Asia is already pretty well set), as well as the online providers' ability to get the studios behind download--it's all about content, content, content. From my limited but very positive experience so far with iTMS rentals, I think there is real potential in download. But, this will be a paradigm shift for consumers, who have been conditioned for the past several decades to rent or buy physical media. Nevertheless, the impressive success of iTMS for music purchases over a relatively short time frame gives some hope.

So now for my $0.02: I think for the mid-term (5-10 years out), Blu-ray will coexist as a specialty item alongside downloads, as DVD steadily phases out. Long-term (10+ years), I cannot accept that distributing digital entertainment on physical media will make any sense at all. Eventually, when we're all hooked to the net via 100+ mbps connections as some of our Asian friends enjoy today, the vision expressed in the Qwest commercial a few years ago--"every movie ever made, in every language, available 24 hours a day" and with better-than-Blu-ray quality--will be everyday reality.

 

[harcosparky]

Will Blu-ray die off?

They told me the same thing about 1/2" reel to reel video recorder and I refused to believe them.

I still have my 1/2" .... though HD content is hard to come by for it.

In order to believe Blu-ray is NOT doomed would mean you have to believe that Blu-ray is the final disk solution ..... well it might be .... blu-ray could well be the last disk we use.

I could almost imaging a 'diskless distribution' system for HD movies.

You could either download to a set top box, or take a 'flash drive' to a movie rental house ..... bring it home .... plug it into the card reader slot on your tv and watch the movie.

Blu-ray is after all just another 'stepping stone' in the pathway of technology.

 

[markjewiss]

Downloading from iTunes is cool and revolutionary, but the experience of buying a physical product and holding in your hands is something that can never be replaced (sorry Apple).

Are there any other old fogies out there that get what I'm saying?

Definately! And I'm only in my early thirties! I've made the shift from CDs to MP3 files, and can't remember the last time that I bought a CD for myself, I just download everything now. It works well for me, because I've got music on my network to listen too whilst I'm working (I'm home office based, so that's a big deal for me), and everything on an iPod for the car and walking around... but when I'm trying to think of something to play, I still turn around and look at shelves full of cd's for inspiration.

I really don't forsee being able to go digital for movies - I've downloaded a few and watched them using my XBMC-modded XBOX (my cheap AppleTV!), and no matter how good the quality of the file, I'd much rather have the physical disc, the box, the extras, the inlay card...

Sad maybe, but that's me

M.