Is Google winning the future?

[Mad Mac Maniac]

Preface: I have a Macbook, iPad, iPhone, and Apple watch. I have been a diehard Apple Fanboy since 2008. I had an iPhone as my groom cake when I got married in 2010. I've always felt that Apple products (in particular, iPhone) are ahead of the competition on an objective level. Around 3 years ago I started to feel that the competition had essentially caught up and the differences between them were minimal and that preference was subjective. I still preferred Apple for ease of use, simplicity, and of course the ecosystem that I'd already bought into.


Bringing us to today. I would still say that the competition is neck and neck with Apple... but I don't know that I can hide from the writing on the wall. Apple won't win the future. I see Google as the most likely winner (however I think Amazon has a fighting chance). It's the Pixel phone (and Google Assistant) that has been the straw that broke the camels back, in my eyes. This isn't just relating to smartphones, but the future of technology as a whole.

-Android has caught up (arguable surpassed) iOS.
-Android hardware has caught up (arguably surpassed) iPhone
-Pixel provides a premium product with sw/hw synergy with stock android and immediate updates just like iPhone has been enjoying
-Google has always been much better with services
-Google's data gathering will always be able to provide more useful personalized information
-Google is much better positioned to win the AI battle, which I believe to be the most important thing in the future
-Google will likely be able to provide better pricing since their monetization strategy relies on people using their products, not buying them

I just believe that Google overall is so much better positioned for providing a better value proposition going forward. Apple is a product company. They will be able to provide expensive, well designed, products that are easy to use, but not nearly as functional. It's arguable that this has been the case for a while, but I feel that it's just getting harder and harder to ignore it... I won't be switching to anything right now, but I'll be trying to hold off on buying anything Apple for at least a year or two, and then I just might switch my entire ecosystem.

 

[Mark316]

It's hard to say. Apple has a cult following like no other. If Google does take the top spot with the Pixel phones it'll be years away from now. They have a lot of marketing to do if they want these phones to take off.

 

[AppleRobert]

I seriously want to know the foot traffic in Google's pop up store for the Pixels on Oct 20th.

 

[mi7chy]

Winning the future? Google has been winning since 2011 but more importantly the industry need competition to continue to drive innovation and progress so the likes of Apple, Microsoft, new players, etc. need to stay in the fight. A singularity may not be beneficial to humankind.

 

[maxsix]

Google has surged to the forefront as the Pixel XL has become the red hot smartphone for 2016. Its good to see Apples arch enemy provide colorful serious competition...

 

[JaySoul]

Google are finally playing for real when it comes to smartphones. I wonder what took them so long.

Tbh I can see them within 3 years dominating the high end of the Android market. But there is still a huge portion of the world that wouldn't pay these amounts for a phone and that's the beauty of competition within Android.

Also, iOS will always have a place because Apple still do a lot of good stuff.

 

[Mad Mac Maniac]

Winning the future? Google has been winning since 2011

That's silly. There are many different interpretations of "winning". Sales vs profit vs best user experience.... Plus that only accounts for smartphone sales. I'm talking about technology on a bigger scale like AI, services, smartwatches, tablets, computers, wearables, VR, AR, etc..... Yes I don't expect other companies (or would want them) to pack it up. And I also expect Apple to last a long time on simple momentum and devotion of its fanbase. But for the user experience (which is my criteria for winning), I think Apple has been ahead, but at this point Google has a fantastic path to victory.

 

[dk001]

If Google can find a way to get a real working AI Assistant into Android ... That is one area Apple has some serious lag.

 

[epicrayban]

If Google can find a way to get a real working AI Assistant into Android ... That is one area Apple has some serious lag.

I worry about this for Apple, too. This whole extreme privacy thing is going to be something they'll have to figure out in conjunction with their AI offering. Reviews are already saying GAssistant makes Siri look dumb. And with Google's model of data-mining, GAssistant can only get smarter and better.

As for Android itself, in my opinion, Android has long passed iOS. The advantages that iOS commands grow fewer and fewer each year. I find each iteration of iOS harder and harder to use, whereas I find each iteration of Android easier and easier.

 

[apolloa]

Preface: I have a Macbook, iPad, iPhone, and Apple watch. I have been a diehard Apple Fanboy since 2008. I had an iPhone as my groom cake when I got married in 2010. I've always felt that Apple products (in particular, iPhone) are ahead of the competition on an objective level. Around 3 years ago I started to feel that the competition had essentially caught up and the differences between them were minimal and that preference was subjective. I still preferred Apple for ease of use, simplicity, and of course the ecosystem that I'd already bought into.


Bringing us to today. I would still say that the competition is neck and neck with Apple... but I don't know that I can hide from the writing on the wall. Apple won't win the future. I see Google as the most likely winner (however I think Amazon has a fighting chance). It's the Pixel phone (and Google Assistant) that has been the straw that broke the camels back, in my eyes. This isn't just relating to smartphones, but the future of technology as a whole.

-Android has caught up (arguable surpassed) iOS.
-Android hardware has caught up (arguably surpassed) iPhone
-Pixel provides a premium product with sw/hw synergy with stock android and immediate updates just like iPhone has been enjoying
-Google has always been much better with services
-Google's data gathering will always be able to provide more useful personalized information
-Google is much better positioned to win the AI battle, which I believe to be the most important thing in the future
-Google will likely be able to provide better pricing since their monetization strategy relies on people using their products, not buying them

I just believe that Google overall is so much better positioned for providing a better value proposition going forward. Apple is a product company. They will be able to provide expensive, well designed, products that are easy to use, but not nearly as functional. It's arguable that this has been the case for a while, but I feel that it's just getting harder and harder to ignore it... I won't be switching to anything right now, but I'll be trying to hold off on buying anything Apple for at least a year or two, and then I just might switch my entire ecosystem.

The future will revolve around one thing, which you already said, services. If people like a service they will always use it and return to it and recommend it. Google has been very very very good with services for quite some time now.
Apple has seemingly only just realised services are the future and so far has had more misses then hits.

I won't try to predict the future. Because the Apple eco system is very good as is the App Store.

So I won't pick any winner just yet. That's what I think anyway.

 

[spinedoc77]

I worry about this for Apple, too. This whole extreme privacy thing is going to be something they'll have to figure out in conjunction with their AI offering. Reviews are already saying GAssistant makes Siri look dumb. And with Google's model of data-mining, GAssistant can only get smarter and better.

As for Android itself, in my opinion, Android has long passed iOS. The advantages that iOS commands grow fewer and fewer each year. I find each iteration of iOS harder and harder to use, whereas I find each iteration of Android easier and easier.

I think Apple will have good success with this. They have a reputation as being scrupulous with a persons information, and I think that will serve them well when they start to collect information for a personal assistant. Google I don't trust one bit with my information and it's very scary how much of it they have, at least I know that Apple primarily makes its money from hardware sales and not advertising.

But I definitely agree that Siri sucks next to google Now (and probably assistant) and that iOS is falling behind. Yet even with that the iPhone still sells out every year, and with the hardware revamped iPhone 8 next year it's bound to be an incredible hit. I'll bet Apple pulls out all the stops with iOS 11 as well, didn't they just buy up an AI company Turi? Man competition is great, and hopefully google assistant spurs Apple to better things, and everyone else.

 

[5105973]

This is a really hard one to predict. It depends really on what's going on inside the HQ in Cupertino. There are hints of strife and a hostile management from the members of Viv who fled Apple in the wake of Steve's death. There is the sudden death of the car project. There are all the accumulated signs of the ship not being run very tight, such as buggy software releases and now noticeably more buggy hardware (hissing, connectivity issues, fit and finish issues to name a few topics that have cropped up). Also stock never seems to be available when you want it.

It's easy to look at all of those kinds of things and take it as a really bad sign.

But if you look at Apple's acquisitions in the last two years, they bought some pretty promising players in the field of AI and augmented reality and health. I'm not sure Tim is interested in virtual reality so I don't think we will see anything with a wow factor in that area unless he is trying to misdirect us. I don't think he is because augmented reality fits in better with other things Apple is doing to get us more engaged with each other and our surroundings rather than isolated. Even if Tim didn't know how to pronounce "Pokemon" he seemed tuned into how the game worked to get people out of the house, together and more fit.

At least the nature of the acquisitions and the functions of the new offices in various countries look like they could be meaningful investments in a cohesive long term strategy to produce products that can change how we interact with our homes, our entertainment, how we communicate, and how we look after our health and finess. When Tim alludes to focusing on these areas, it strongly suggests he may finally be focusing on technology that relates to each other and to us again better than a car pulled out of nowhere. I think the dude may at last be getting in touch with some semblance of focus and vision again.

The question remains if Apple can use these resources in a sensible way. They really need editors. People who can look at the late stage prototypes and do what Steve used to do and ask "What the hell were you thinking?" And who aren't afraid to say "This makes no sense at all." or "that looks ridiculous, refine it."

I'm not counting Apple out by any means. But I am exploring other options as any prudent consumer should.

 

[dk001]

This is a really hard one to predict. It depends really on what's going on inside the HQ in Cupertino. There are hints of strife and a hostile management from the members of Viv who fled Apple in the wake of Steve's death. There is the sudden death of the car project. There are all the accumulated signs of the ship not being run very tight, such as buggy software releases and now noticeably more buggy hardware (hissing, connectivity issues, fit and finish issues to name a few topics that have cropped up). Also stock never seems to be available when you want it.

It's easy to look at all of those kinds of things and take it as a really bad sign.

But if you look at Apple's acquisitions in the last two years, they bought some pretty promising players in the field of AI and augmented reality and health. I'm not sure Tim is interested in virtual reality so I don't think we will see anything with a wow factor in that area unless he is trying to misdirect us. I don't think he is because augmented reality fits in better with other things Apple is doing to get us more engaged with each other and our surroundings rather than isolated. Even if Tim didn't know how to pronounce "Pokemon" he seemed tuned into how the game worked to get people out of the house, together and more fit.

At least the nature of the acquisitions and the functions of the new offices in various countries look like they could be meaningful investments in a cohesive long term strategy to produce products that can change how we interact with our homes, our entertainment, how we communicate, and how we look after our health and finess. When Tim alludes to focusing on these areas, it strongly suggests he may finally be focusing on technology that relates to each other and to us again better than a car pulled out of nowhere. I think the dude may at last be getting in touch with some semblance of focus and vision again.

The question remains if Apple can use these resources in a sensible way. They really need editors. People who can look at the late stage prototypes and do what Steve used to do and ask "What the hell were you thinking?" And who aren't afraid to say "This makes no sense at all." or "that looks ridiculous, refine it."

I'm not counting Apple out by any means. But I am exploring other options as any prudent consumer should.

You did a nice summation. The biggest question my mind, and maybe a data point someone can answer, for all the current Apple acquisitions, have the teams and leaders from those purchases melded fully into Apple and are being leveraged to drive Apple forward? I wonder and for some reason kind of doubt they have. We have seen far too many Apple acquisitions become ghosts once bought or placed into play and never really developed.

Hmmm......

 

[boast]

Chromebook has not yet surpassed the Macbook. The Pixel C has not surpassed the iPad. Android TV has not surpassed Apple TV, although the Chromecast has. OnHub will surpass Airport Extreme? Not sure. I don't see what Google's answer to the iMac is. I don't see any Android wear that Google personally makes to compete with the Apple Watch. And I don't see what Google's response for Apple's Beats is.

For web services, they are.

 

[maxsix]

This is a really hard one to predict. It depends really on what's going on inside the HQ in Cupertino. There are hints of strife and a hostile management from the members of Viv who fled Apple in the wake of Steve's death. There is the sudden death of the car project. There are all the accumulated signs of the ship not being run very tight, such as buggy software releases and now noticeably more buggy hardware (hissing, connectivity issues, fit and finish issues to name a few topics that have cropped up). Also stock never seems to be available when you want it.

It's easy to look at all of those kinds of things and take it as a really bad sign.

But if you look at Apple's acquisitions in the last two years, they bought some pretty promising players in the field of AI and augmented reality and health. I'm not sure Tim is interested in virtual reality so I don't think we will see anything with a wow factor in that area unless he is trying to misdirect us. I don't think he is because augmented reality fits in better with other things Apple is doing to get us more engaged with each other and our surroundings rather than isolated. Even if Tim didn't know how to pronounce "Pokemon" he seemed tuned into how the game worked to get people out of the house, together and more fit.

At least the nature of the acquisitions and the functions of the new offices in various countries look like they could be meaningful investments in a cohesive long term strategy to produce products that can change how we interact with our homes, our entertainment, how we communicate, and how we look after our health and finess. When Tim alludes to focusing on these areas, it strongly suggests he may finally be focusing on technology that relates to each other and to us again better than a car pulled out of nowhere. I think the dude may at last be getting in touch with some semblance of focus and vision again.

The question remains if Apple can use these resources in a sensible way. They really need editors. People who can look at the late stage prototypes and do what Steve used to do and ask "What the hell were you thinking?" And who aren't afraid to say "This makes no sense at all." or "that looks ridiculous, refine it."

I'm not counting Apple out by any means. But I am exploring other options as any prudent consumer should.

Kudos!

You've done an excellent job of summing up the state of affairs at Apple... I share your take on it.

The complexity of the situation is such that it's difficult to imagine just where things are headed over the course of the next year. While Apple doesn't appear to be committed to a clear path, anything is possible. Perhaps we'll see an indication after the upcoming reveal of new laptops or whatever they introduce next.
[doublepost=1476841059][/doublepost]

Chromebook has not yet surpassed the Macbook. The Pixel C has not surpassed the iPad. Android TV has not surpassed Apple TV, although the Chromecast has. OnHub will surpass Airport Extreme? Not sure. I don't see what Google's answer to the iMac is. I don't see any Android wear that Google personally makes to compete with the Apple Watch. And I don't see what Google's response for Apple's Beats is.

For web services, they are.

I don't see a need to compete product for product. Not criticizing your take on it, but the fundamental differences between the two companies is quite significant.

Google doesn't have to have an answer to Apple. A few products like smartphones are going to compete, others will remain unique to their own OEM. And that's OK, the markets very robust.

 

[Hanzu Lao]

Chromebook has not yet surpassed the Macbook. The Pixel C has not surpassed the iPad. Android TV has not surpassed Apple TV, although the Chromecast has. OnHub will surpass Airport Extreme? Not sure. I don't see what Google's answer to the iMac is. I don't see any Android wear that Google personally makes to compete with the Apple Watch. And I don't see what Google's response for Apple's Beats is.

For web services, they are.

Chromecast is not the same type of the device like Apple TV. Comparing them is stupid.

 

[AustinIllini]

These posts get more and more ridiculous. Google and Apple can't "beat" each other because they're playing different games.

Google wins in its software and services. Its primary revenue stream is through ads, so Google has little interest in killing the iPhone or "beating Apple"On the other side, Apple generates its income by selling iPhones and only caters its features to selling more iPhones.

Here's what will happen: Google, in the typical Google manner, will release Google Assistant on all major devices, Android or otherwise, within about 18 months. Google will sell a lot of Pixels, but the iPhone will likely outpace it in sales for some time.

These threads are stupid because to imply one is winning is to imply the other has to lose. That couldn't be farther from the truth.

 

[Technarchy]

Google has an interest in offering services on Apple products. I don't see that changing.

 

[Hanzu Lao]

Preface: I have a Macbook, iPad, iPhone, and Apple watch. I have been a diehard Apple Fanboy since 2008. I had an iPhone as my groom cake when I got married in 2010. I've always felt that Apple products (in particular, iPhone) are ahead of the competition on an objective level. Around 3 years ago I started to feel that the competition had essentially caught up and the differences between them were minimal and that preference was subjective. I still preferred Apple for ease of use, simplicity, and of course the ecosystem that I'd already bought into.


Bringing us to today. I would still say that the competition is neck and neck with Apple... but I don't know that I can hide from the writing on the wall. Apple won't win the future. I see Google as the most likely winner (however I think Amazon has a fighting chance). It's the Pixel phone (and Google Assistant) that has been the straw that broke the camels back, in my eyes. This isn't just relating to smartphones, but the future of technology as a whole.

-Android has caught up (arguable surpassed) iOS.
-Android hardware has caught up (arguably surpassed) iPhone
-Pixel provides a premium product with sw/hw synergy with stock android and immediate updates just like iPhone has been enjoying
-Google has always been much better with services
-Google's data gathering will always be able to provide more useful personalized information
-Google is much better positioned to win the AI battle, which I believe to be the most important thing in the future
-Google will likely be able to provide better pricing since their monetization strategy relies on people using their products, not buying them

I just believe that Google overall is so much better positioned for providing a better value proposition going forward. Apple is a product company. They will be able to provide expensive, well designed, products that are easy to use, but not nearly as functional. It's arguable that this has been the case for a while, but I feel that it's just getting harder and harder to ignore it... I won't be switching to anything right now, but I'll be trying to hold off on buying anything Apple for at least a year or two, and then I just might switch my entire ecosystem.

Love the doom and gloom scenarios like that. For that alone i will give you 10/10. Other than that this is pure nonsense.

 

[dk001]

Chromebook has not yet surpassed the Macbook. The Pixel C has not surpassed the iPad. Android TV has not surpassed Apple TV, although the Chromecast has. OnHub will surpass Airport Extreme? Not sure. I don't see what Google's answer to the iMac is. I don't see any Android wear that Google personally makes to compete with the Apple Watch. And I don't see what Google's response for Apple's Beats is.

For web services, they are.

This isn't a product vs. product discussion. This is a basic concept for future direction discussion. Better or worse the direction is AI and personal assistants. Apple has great hardware on the commerce side. Hardware is not where this will be decided.

 

[spinedoc77]

Google has an interest in offering services on Apple products. I don't see that changing.

Yeah, I see the Google Assistant exclusivity as just something temporary to boost sales of a completely new product. There is no way Google can afford to let Android oems and Apple be pissed at not having Assistant and having them research their own solutions. Which they are doing anyway, but the less they are pushed in that direction the better for Google. I'll bet we see Assistant for non-Pixel phones in 3 months, and an iOS version not long after that and the Pixel 2 will launch but without Assistant as an exclusive, other than needing the latest OS for it.

 

[AppleRobert]

I would not know the percentage of the population that has acquired a smartphone for their first time in the last three years or so.

Cheaper with an Android product than an iPhone by far to see if they like having a smartphone.

 

[mrex]

I'm talking about technology on a bigger scale like AI, services, smartwatches, tablets, computers, wearables, VR, AR, etc.....

on a bigger scale i would say Samsung, not apple or either google.

 

[tbayrgs]

Yeah, I see the Google Assistant exclusivity as just something temporary to boost sales of a completely new product. There is no way Google can afford to let Android oems and Apple be pissed at not having Assistant and having them research their own solutions. Which they are doing anyway, but the less they are pushed in that direction the better for Google. I'll bet we see Assistant for non-Pixel phones in 3 months, and an iOS version not long after that and the Pixel 2 will launch but without Assistant as an exclusive, other than needing the latest OS for it.

I agree with all except for the last statement. I suspect the Pixel will be Google's vehicle to release new features/functions, exclusively to their personal platform, first each year. They'll then roll them out to their partners afterwards. But lets face it, considering it generally takes 3rd party manufacturers another 6 months to update their software regardless, it's not like they're really doing anything different than what we've seen for years. How many phone's out right now are running Nougat?

 

[boast]

This isn't a product vs. product discussion. This is a basic concept for future direction discussion. Better or worse the direction is AI and personal assistants. Apple has great hardware on the commerce side. Hardware is not where this will be decided.

True. Being biased from working on the hardware side of the tech industry I don't like the idea "hardware will become a commodity and software is the only future". Because if that is the case, I am screwed and Apple (as well as many others) would have to heavily revamp and redirect their R&D. So I assume this discussion is already with that expected.