Is now the best time to buy an M1 Pro / Max?

[Fomalhaut]

I got burned (almost literally ) buying a 2019 MBP16, and am now carefully considering the timing of my next Mac purchase.

Initially, I was a bit disappointed that the M1 Pro/Max were still using the original M1 cores, and not the improvements that went into the A15. I thought that I would keep the MBP16 for another year to see what improvements would be launched in Oct/Nov 2022 - making the assumption that we might see a minor SoC upgrade each year.

However, I am now thinking that provided there are no design issues discovered with the 1st gen M1 Pro/Max, that waiting a year (or longer) for a minor improvement may not be the smartest thing for the following reasons:

1) There is no guarantee when an improved M1 Pro/Max will be released. It could conceivably be as early as Apr-June 2022 after the M2 MBA release. More likely to be a bit later in Oct/Nov 2022, but it's also possible that Apple have an 18-24 month refresh cycle, which would be a long time to wait.
2) We are very unlikely to see huge improvements in the next generation - we've just have a gigantic performance increase over the Intel Macs, and this can't realistically be expected again in laptops for many years, if ever. Apple Silicon core improvements may be quite modest and split between some performance improvement and some power efficiency improvements.
3) My MBP16 will only decline in value more rapidly once the general population of non-tech Mac users realize that the new MBPs offer much better performance/price, so now is the time to sell it for whatever I can, and cut my losses.

I've already decided that I'm going to upgrade the MBP16, even though it slightly pains me that I would be doing this earlier than planned (2 years versus 4-5 years), so now it's just a question of timing.

 

[TrueBlou]

To me, and I’m sure many opinions will differ, if you’re going to buy one, now is definitely the time.

This seems to be one of the best designs, inside and out (looking at tear down videos), that Apple have released in some time.

The performance is undeniably great, the battery life is incredible (particularly with the 16” M1 Pro), and those screens, ohhhhh those screens

I got a MacBook Air M1 8GB last year and I’ve been utterly blown away by it. So much so that I bought an M1 Mac Mini as a second server.

In all honesty, I could keep on using that MBA for a while yet, even with my semi-demanding needs, it’s been a wee champ. But the bigger, beautiful display of the 16”, the ports, MagSafe and the boost in performance I’ll be getting. I just couldn’t resist.

After my 15” MBP which had the TouchBar first, I swore I’d never buy another Apple laptop which had the TouchBar - which has since limited me to the iMac, until the MBA came along last year and blew my iMac out of the stratosphere. Now that the TouchBar is gone and proper keys are back, there was no stopping me from getting this new MacBook Pro.

 

[matram]

Great summary of the situation I also have.

Personally I will wait a year but that is more to see what will happen with Windows on ARM.

There does not seem to be any showstoppers. The complaints we are hearing here looks more like trolling than any real issues.

 

[Fomalhaut]

Great summary of the situation I also have.

Personally I will wait a year but that is more to see what will happen with Windows on ARM.

There does not seem to be any showstoppers. The complaints we are hearing here looks more like trolling than any real issues.

I also have been seriously impressed by the M1 Macs, and bought an M1 Mini last year - it has been a fantastic desktop machine during the pandemic, although a little light on memory for my usage.

I was considering an M1 Air or MBP, but had no real need to another laptop, and the 16GB limit would have meant compromising my desired specification. Before we moved to remote working, I tended to just leave the MBP16 at work because I cycle to work in a hilly area and wanted to reduce weight - plus its size required a large backpack that was a bit bulky on a carbon race-bike with no bag-rack.

It looks like the MBP14 is ideal for me, but it's still quite expensive, and would mean only getting 2 years' use out of my MBP16, where I normally try to amortize the cost over 4-5 years. I guess I'll feel different if I can sell the MBP16 for good price. As long as my TCO is less than about $800-1000 per year, I'll feel I've done OK on the deal.

 

[uiterlix]

If you don't really need to buy one, I'd wait until they've ironed out the notch next year.

 

[magbarn]

If your mbp is still serving you well right now, I would wait. Apple is going to definitely continue upgrading the cpu and gpu. As you said it’s not using the improved a15 cores

What’s also galling is the lack of faceid which will invariably come in a future edition.

 

[matram]

Was in the Apple store today (Stockholm, Sweden) and checked out the new models. At first glance I thoughts the new models were the old.

So size feels about the same. if you look at them from the top or as you would use them you do not feel they are any chunkier. The 16” a bit heavier but nothing I could not handle with one hand even open.

One clear conclusion though, I could never go back to the smaller screen so when I switch it will be the 16”.

 

[CoffeeMacBook]

I’m upgrading from a 2017 15” MacBook Pro and so it was much needed for me.

I decided to update immediately rather than wait another year over concerns of the sillicon shortage and geopolitics in regards to China and Taiwan. I know that TSMC is building a new fab in Arizona but it may be a few years before that’s up and running.

TSMC Arizona - This is very much a geopolitical move by the U.S. to secure silicon chip manufacture in case China decides to re-integrate Taiwan:

Current U.S. politics and the unstable supply chain becoming more apparent every week due to medical mandates. There are also trucker shortages… etc..etc…

If you’re one of the few lucky people who happen to be working in an industry where those supply chain disruption aren’t noticeable, then be glad. Everyone else is feeling it.

You’ve also got China‘s Evergrande real estate bubble that looks precarious:

We’re talking about defaulting on over $300 billion dollars of debt as a corporation. IF this happens, it will affect China’s economy and many “made in China” products.

Australia has also stopped coal exports to China which is causing their electrical grid to have rolling power outages and preventing manufacturing. Shipping prices has also skyrocketed.

I use to order products from China through AliExpress and AliBaba, and the shipping prices have doubled.

The Apple community and tech world is general seems very isolated and unaware of events happening globally, but the TLDR = Those needing a new capable machine should order now due to supply chain disruptions that may stretch out until 2023 or more. If your current machine is capable enough to handle 2-3 more years without needed an update, then I think waiting is fine.

 

[workerbee]

Strongly thinking about exchanging my i9 16" with a M1 – screen real estate is obviously nice, but portability and battery life are pretty poor, also I'm not fond of the constant guessing as to why the fans have to start cooling all the time.

Really torn between getting a 16GB RAM / 1TB SSD MacBook Air, or a 14" MacBook Pro. The price difference of ~$1000 is just ridiculous, but buying old tech is seldom a recipe for long-term happiness with nerds.

Before the 16" I used a 2012 Retina MacBook Pro – still possibly the best MacBook ever, with a revolutionary display, and none of the silly stuff like TouchBar or the Notch.

 

[bill-p]

Strongly thinking about exchanging my i9 16" with a M1 – screen real estate is obviously nice, but portability and battery life are pretty poor, also I'm not fond of the constant guessing as to why the fans have to start cooling all the time.

Really torn between getting a 16GB RAM / 1TB SSD MacBook Air, or a 14" MacBook Pro. The price difference of ~$1000 is just ridiculous, but buying old tech is seldom a recipe for long-term happiness with nerds.

Before the 16" I used a 2012 Retina MacBook Pro – still possibly the best MacBook ever, with a revolutionary display, and none of the silly stuff like TouchBar or the Notch.

That $1000 difference gets you...

1. Basically a portable Pro XDR display.
2. A much faster processor
3. Better speakers
4. Bigger battery
5. Better keyboard
6. More ports
7. More external displays

The first 4 are already worth way more than $1000 to me. The latter 3 are just icing on the cake.

I just returned the 16" for the 14" and I think I can camp happy now. Battery life is still well over 10 hours (i.e.: a whole work day) and I can't quite go back to the Air or 13" Pro anymore after looking at this new display.

 

[workerbee]

That $1000 difference gets you...

1. Basically a portable Pro XDR display.
2. A much faster processor
3. Better speakers
4. Bigger battery
5. Better keyboard
6. More ports
7. More external displays

I can't quite go back to the Air or 13" Pro anymore after looking at this new display.

I‘m quite afraid of not being able to go back to a smaller display, XDR or not, TBH.

Of your list, I‘d probably also strike numbers 2, as I have no need for faster CPU than M1 except for the occasional overnight h265 encode (CodeKit compiles my lowly SCSS and JS files fast enough even on Intel), 4 as I don‘t care about the size of the battery, only how long the Macbook can work with it (M1 > M1 Pro), and 5 - not much difference between the m1 MBA keyboard and the 2021 MBP’s.

That basically leaves a better screen and speaker system for $1000.

 

[TrueBlou]

If your mbp is still serving you well right now, I would wait. Apple is going to definitely continue upgrading the cpu and gpu. As you said it’s not using the improved a15 cores

What’s also galling is the lack of faceid which will invariably come in a future edition.

I’ve no doubt FaceID will come eventually, and while I love it on my iPhone, I’m not so sure I’d prefer it over TouchID on my Mac.

Sure, in certain circumstances it would be nice, you open the lid, the Mac instantly resumes from standby and unlocks with FaceID.

But in other circumstances, for instance, if your Mac is open and the screen is off/screensaver on. How do we initiate a FaceID unlock? By pressing a key? Wouldn’t we be just as well to use TouchID then?

Likewise with purchases, how do we confirm the purchase? On iPhone it’s easy, we double tap the side button. But if we had to interact with the keyboard in any way to confirm a purchase, again, TouchID serves that purpose already. I suppose we could nod at the screen to confirm, or some other movement, but that just doesn’t seem as safe to me.

I’m sure when it finally comes along it’ll be fine. But for a device where my hands are on the keyboard for the vast majority of the time I’m using it, TouchID seems like the perfect fit.
But that’s just me.

I’m perfectly happy with the notch - it doesn’t bother me at all, why would it? It’s adding screen real estate, not taking it away. By moving the menu bar up and out of the normal 16:10 screen area, we gain a small bit usable but if screen real estate.

 

[michael9891]

Am I right in thinking the 16 MBP tend to be released every 2 years? So the new ones aren't likely to get replaced next year?

 

[matram]

Am I right in thinking the 16 MBP tend to be released every 2 years? So the new ones aren't likely to get replaced next year?

Historically it has been more like four years for a new body style and maybe yearly smaller updates like new cpu or better display.

 

[Melbourne Park]

Using the growth in transistors being years to the power of 1.96, 2017's A7 with 1 billion transistors has become 58 billion. So using that growth pattern (not sure if that fits to Boyle's Law) then in 2026 there'll be a chip with 150 billion transistors. Of course Apple could do more than that now, by putting more than one processor into a computer. But it won't be a notebook.

To go faster, then faster clock speeds might happen ... I can see that more easily happening in the 16", which from reviews I've seen, doesn't run its fans above 1800 RPM, unlike the 14'. So there is more speed already available for the 16", IMO. As an example, Apple could put duel processors in the 16". If they could fit them. The cooling capacity's there it seems to me. But perhaps, there isn't the space.

So besides the unlikely twin CPU configuration, I don't see huge increases in performance in the the notebooks coming for some time. And these notebooks look like long life computers to me, due to their coolness and solid construction.

I do think that as time goes on, the value get better though. Via refurbs, maybe they chuck something in, or adjust the price of some configurations a bit. So I think they'll be better value some time next year.

 

[Love-hate 🍏 relationship]

That $1000 difference gets you...

1. Basically a portable Pro XDR display.
2. A much faster processor
3. Better speakers
4. Bigger battery
5. Better keyboard
6. More ports
7. More external displays

The first 4 are already worth way more than $1000 to me. The latter 3 are just icing on the cake.

I just returned the 16" for the 14" and I think I can camp happy now. Battery life is still well over 10 hours (i.e.: a whole work day) and I can't quite go back to the Air or 13" Pro anymore after looking at this new display.

actually the battery is better on the air than the 14 pro
it only adds weight lol
also how better keyboard ? genuinely curious on that one

 

[Adam Warlock]

As with any radically new model, including cars for example, it's probably best to wait for a second or third iteration before committing. Time is usually needed to work out bugs, iron out design or technical issues not accounted for, etc. That said the lure for shiny, shiny is strong so it's understandable to want the latest and greatest, but I imagine there will be some deals on Black Friday or Christmas, so maybe waiting a few weeks is best.

 

[bill-p]

I‘m quite afraid of not being able to go back to a smaller display, XDR or not, TBH.

Of your list, I‘d probably also strike numbers 2, as I have no need for faster CPU than M1 except for the occasional overnight h265 encode (CodeKit compiles my lowly SCSS and JS files fast enough even on Intel), 4 as I don‘t care about the size of the battery, only how long the Macbook can work with it (M1 > M1 Pro), and 5 - not much difference between the m1 MBA keyboard and the 2021 MBP’s.

That basically leaves a better screen and speaker system for $1000.

I have tried the new Low Power Mode. M1 Pro 14" really can last just as long as my M1 13" Pro (not Air) with this on.

And the keyboard is actually more different than you think. Keys are bigger, if ever so slightly, and there is more key travel.

actually the battery is better on the air than the 14 pro
it only adds weight lol
also how better keyboard ? genuinely curious on that one

I don't think battery life is not better on the Air. I'm not sure what other people are seeing, but I'm seeing the M1 Pro 14" as being just slightly behind my 13" Pro even in regular daily use. Both last well over 10 hours and the 14" is easily around 11-12 hours, while the 13" Pro is about 14-15 to me. I don't have the Air with me but I'm quite certain those figures from the 14" are close to the Air. Also the 14" Pro can charge up to 50% in 30 minutes anyway, while the 13" Pro takes me a bit over 1 hour to get to that point.

Keyboard is slightly bigger with more key travel than before. The Esc key and the whole function row is massive compared to the 13" Air or Pro, and the Touch ID button alone is easily 50% bigger, as it covers even my thumb entirely now.

 

[satcomer]

I say get it ASAP! Once TMSC finishes in two years their Arizona factory because of the great of Chinese Government invasion talk! So get as soon as you can because it will be the best for about 2-2/12 years until the new USA factory is complete!

 

[Digitalguy]

That $1000 difference gets you...

1. Basically a portable Pro XDR display.
2. A much faster processor
3. Better speakers
4. Bigger battery
5. Better keyboard
6. More ports
7. More external displays

The first 4 are already worth way more than $1000 to me. The latter 3 are just icing on the cake.

I just returned the 16" for the 14" and I think I can camp happy now. Battery life is still well over 10 hours (i.e.: a whole work day) and I can't quite go back to the Air or 13" Pro anymore after looking at this new display.

the difference, spec for spec, with the entry level 14in is $600, not $1000

1. Depends how much one cares about that. For instance I don't care about the difference between the miniled iPad pro and the previous 12.9in one.
2. For most people M1 is plenty
3. More bass and a bit more volume, based on tests, M1 still pretty good
4. But better battery life on the M1
5. Keyboard is identical
6. True
7. True. But it depends if people use more than 1 external display

 

[Grohowiak]

After the disastrous 16" intel with the 5300 I'm insanely suspicious and critical about apple laptops but I will say that the base 14 that I got is really good and I bet the 16" is as well.
I'm using it with 38" ultra wide and it is quiet, efficient and for most tasks stays cool.
Haven't found any flaws that would make me regret the purchase. I placed my M1 mini for sale only hours after toying with this thing.

As to when, you are the only one that can really answer it.
Fact is the more the word spreads about the performance of the pro/max the harder will get to sell the intel machine at a reasonable price unless you find somebody that desperately needs bootcamp / parallels. I sold my 16" after 5 months of use because it was just a nightmare. I considered that as a business loss type of deal though my mental state benefited greatly lol

 

[bill-p]

the difference, spec for spec, with the entry level 14in is $600, not $1000

1. Depends how much one cares about that. For instance I don't care about the difference between the miniled iPad pro and the previous 12.9in one.
2. For most people M1 is plenty
3. More bass and a bit more volume, based on tests, M1 still pretty good
4. But better battery life on the M1
5. Keyboard is identical
6. True
7. True. But it depends if people use more than 1 external display

1. The screen is also bigger, too. Even if it's just slightly more screen real estate, it's still something.
2. I can agree M1 is plenty for most people. But the whole point for some folks going to M1 in the first place was to get a faster chip. M1 Pro is indeed twice as fast as M1 and I end up being able to finish most of my tasks almost twice as fast as M1. Leaving more time for other things.
3. It's a whole league ahead. Tests on the internet don't really show the difference. You need to hear this in person to believe it.
4. Better battery life is debatable. Maybe the 13" Pro can do that but the Air has a smaller battery. Also there's "Low Power Mode" and the M1 Pro has performance to spare.
5. Keyboard is not identical. This is something you have to see to believe. The whole top row is significantly larger than the previous generation, and even the tactile feedback and feel of each button is now different.
6. Also should mention this: there are ports on both sides now so I can charge on both sides.
7. Also should mention this: M1 has an artificial limit of around 6K of resolution. So certain monitors that need HiDPI resolutions beyond 3K is limited. The M1 Pro/Max doesn't have this limitation. This is beyond the 1 monitor thing.

 

[Love-hate 🍏 relationship]

I say get it ASAP! Once TMSC finishes in two years their Arizona factory because of the great of Chinese Government invasion talk! So get as soon as you can because it will be the best for about 2-2/12 years until the new USA factory is complete!

and what will happen then ?

 

[zarathu]

If you want to wait until the best possible machine comes first, you will be waiting until the zombie apocalypse, or the end of life as we know it. Next year Apple will come out with an update which will blow away the current ones, and instead of the operation taking 3/4 of second in Ps, it will take 1/4 of a second.

Buy it now if you need it. Upgrade in 5 years if you have to. My last MBP is(the one I’m on now) is the late 2013 model. The M1pro sits in a box on the floor until I get a handle on all the issues I may have in migrating a Mojave late 2013 to a Monterey M1Pro.

 

[Love-hate 🍏 relationship]

I’m upgrading from a 2017 15” MacBook Pro and so it was much needed for me.

I decided to update immediately rather than wait another year over concerns of the sillicon shortage and geopolitics in regards to China and Taiwan. I know that TSMC is building a new fab in Arizona but it may be a few years before that’s up and running.

TSMC Arizona - This is very much a geopolitical move by the U.S. to secure silicon chip manufacture in case China decides to re-integrate Taiwan:

Current U.S. politics and the unstable supply chain becoming more apparent every week due to medical mandates. There are also trucker shortages… etc..etc…

If you’re one of the few lucky people who happen to be working in an industry where those supply chain disruption aren’t noticeable, then be glad. Everyone else is feeling it.

You’ve also got China‘s Evergrande real estate bubble that looks precarious:

We’re talking about defaulting on over $300 billion dollars of debt as a corporation. IF this happens, it will affect China’s economy and many “made in China” products.

Australia has also stopped coal exports to China which is causing their electrical grid to have rolling power outages and preventing manufacturing. Shipping prices has also skyrocketed.

I use to order products from China through AliExpress and AliBaba, and the shipping prices have doubled.

The Apple community and tech world is general seems very isolated and unaware of events happening globally, but the TLDR = Those needing a new capable machine should order now due to supply chain disruptions that may stretch out until 2023 or more. If your current machine is capable enough to handle 2-3 more years without needed an update, then I think waiting is fine.

Don't u think that also means upcoming MacBooks will see a price increase ?