M1-Aftermath: Welcome to the intel-Mac bubble ...

[bobesch]

Introducing the new M1-iMac and iPad-Pro line Apple gets more and more serious about it's transition away from intel...
So all intel-Mac users can start to make themselves comfortable within the intel-Mac-bubble (like the PPC-Mac-users about 16y ago) and look forward to a future of dwindling support and capabilities of their favorite current machines ...)
While the PPC-community didn't hang on the online/cloud-drip in 2005 and could happily endure another 10y, these days becoming obsolescent may catch you pretty fast by just getting cut off connectivity and online-sources and online-activation.
How about your opinions ...?

 

[velocityg4]

That'd happen whether or not Apple switched to ARM for any model eventually. Just look at the oldest Intel models. The ARM transition may speed that up by a few years for more recent Intel Mac owners. But it isn't hopeless either for longer term usage.

macOS
This'll likely be the first support dropped. Most recent Intel purchasers will likely get the short end of the stick. With an abbreviated macOS support life. Older models which are still supported will likely get their normal support life. As they'd lose support after about seven years whether or not there was an ARM mac.

Mainstream software
The next to go. Most will probably start dying off two to three years after the last macOS release. Although they'll keep up with cloud connectivity for a while longer on old software versions. Before they get cut off.

Little guys
As with PowerPC. There'll likely be all sorts of projects kicked off to keep stuff like Web Browsers functioning with forked browsers. Also tools to keep cloud sources connected. As there is a much larger install base for Intel Macs. Plus people usually keep computers much longer now then they did in the PPC era. Those projects will have more people to serve. Thus more people contributing time and money. So, I expect those projects will be better done and last longer.

Windows
You'll still be able to boot into Windows when all hope for macOS software is lost. As MS supports very old hardware with a modern OS. You'll get fifteen to twenty years with the latest Windows. Then when you may no longer run the latest. A long time of security updates and third party software support.

Linux
Basically the same as Windows. With an even longer support life with lightweight but modern distributions.

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Anyways, for most people it won't matter. They should get pretty good software support for at least ten years. Most people will have dumped their computer by then. The remainder is mostly hobbyists/enthusiasts, cheapskates and people to stubborn to change. They can go on finding ways to keep their old computers functional for much longer.

 

[eyoungren]

Introducing the new M1-iMac and iPad-Pro line Apple gets more and more serious about it's transition away from intel...
So all intel-Mac users can start to make themselves comfortable within the intel-Mac-bubble (like the PPC-Mac-users about 16y ago) and look forward to a future of dwindling support and capabilities of their favorite current machines ...)
While the PPC-community didn't hang on the online/cloud-drip in 2005 and could happily endure another 10y, these days becoming obsolescent may catch you pretty fast by just getting cut off connectivity and online-sources and online-activation.
How about your opinions ...?

As I have repeatedly stated before, my current systems are on a sliding scale. As things progress, I do too, just about 5-10 years behind current models. Currently, that means PowerPC for me has now been relegated to support roles.

I suspect a Mac 5,1 within about 3 to 5 years to become my next DD (if not a bit sooner). No idea what I might do when the trashcan MPs come into my price range as I don't see the brand new Mac Pro being in my price range for at least another 10 years. I may have to switch to PC for a while, IDK.

I have one more system jump I can make and that's from Mojave to Catalina. I will probably do that when Apple starts cutting off Mojave systems from its iServices. But once Catalina is on the chopping block decisions will have to be made.

 

[bobesch]

Yep, having to decide wether to skip either iServices or 32bit-support (iPhoto, Aperture, Office'08) at some certain point isn't something I'm looking forward too.
As soon as Apple has finished the transition the aftermarket certainly will be flooded with intel-Macs, especially the Retina-stuff. Since on the later Retina-books you cannot selectively upgrade the memory and since the flat keyboard design is prone to fail because of lint and dirt sticking beneath, I think there will be a significant drop in pricing ...
Getting hands on the trash-can some time in the future is really something I'm also curious about ...

 

[bobesch]

That'd happen whether or not Apple switched to ARM for any model eventually. Just look at the oldest Intel models. The ARM transition may speed that up by a few years for more recent Intel Mac owners. But it isn't hopeless either for longer term usage.

macOS
This'll likely be the first support dropped. Most recent Intel purchasers will likely get the short end of the stick. With an abbreviated macOS support life. Older models which are still supported will likely get their normal support life. As they'd lose support after about seven years whether or not there was an ARM mac.

Mainstream software
The next to go. Most will probably start dying off two to three years after the last macOS release. Although they'll keep up with cloud connectivity for a while longer on old software versions. Before they get cut off.

Little guys
As with PowerPC. There'll likely be all sorts of projects kicked off to keep stuff like Web Browsers functioning with forked browsers. Also tools to keep cloud sources connected. As there is a much larger install base for Intel Macs. Plus people usually keep computers much longer now then they did in the PPC era. Those projects will have more people to serve. Thus more people contributing time and money. So, I expect those projects will be better done and last longer.

Windows
You'll still be able to boot into Windows when all hope for macOS software is lost. As MS supports very old hardware with a modern OS. You'll get fifteen to twenty years with the latest Windows. Then when you may no longer run the latest. A long time of security updates and third party software support.

Linux
Basically the same as Windows. With an even longer support life with lightweight but modern distributions.

--------------------------------------------------

Anyways, for most people it won't matter. They should get pretty good software support for at least ten years. Most people will have dumped their computer by then. The remainder is mostly hobbyists/enthusiasts, cheapskates and people to stubborn to change. They can go on finding ways to keep their old computers functional for much longer.

That's a great summary indeed!
Guess I'm gonna be sort of the stubborn ones and stick with Mojave as long as possible to keep well known things working without annual subscriptions and e.g. photos mainly out of the cloud-storages.
Having Linux (or Windows) at hand - certainly in a dual-drive/dual-boot machine after removing the optical drive - will be good prospect to maintain support and have an up-to-date system for on the go.
Hu, I sure to jump onto the train some day and get a new Mac/iOS-combination for the power-hungry 4k and web-stuff to come and keep iServices running - but certainly not as an early adopter anymore.

 

[ElectronGuru]

My first Mac was a 68020 so I’ve been through this a few times. It does create a split where developers either abandon or push forward with improvements. So some apps will be left behind while others get a coordinated boost.

But overall you come back in 2-3 years and most things are sorted. It’s people in a hurry who get the most stressed. Overall I don’t expect my intel investments to go obsolete any faster.

 

[bobesch]

But overall you come back in 2-3 years and most things are sorted. It’s people in a hurry who get the most stressed. Overall I don’t expect my intel investments to go obsolete any faster.

That's right. Thinking about how fast the early iOS devices were left behind, I wonder at what pace Apple will progress in developing more advanced Mx-processors and leave the first generation M1 behind too ...

 

[Wowfunhappy]

During the Intel era, Macs became a lot more popular and mainstream than they ever were in the PPC days. There are a lot more Intel Macs in circulation than there ever were PPC Macs.

I don’t see Chrome, for instance, dropping Intel Mac support for a very long time. As in, I think it’s a solid decade away at minimum.

 

[RogerWilco6502]

There are a heck of a lot more Intel Macs in circulation than there ever were PPC Macs. The Mac has just become a lot more popular and mainstream.

I don’t see Chrome, for instance, dropping Intel Mac support for a very long time. Like, I think it’s a solid decade away.

IIRC Google just dropped Yosemite support, and Yosemite has been out of support for a few years now so I suspect that you're correct. I'd suspect that even dropping support for El Cap is a little ways off given that it is what a lot of Macs are capped at.

 

[Wowfunhappy]

IIRC Google just dropped Yosemite support, and Yosemite has been out of support for a few years now so I suspect that you're correct. I'd suspect that even dropping support for El Cap is a little ways off given that it is what a lot of Macs are capped at.

Exactly. And btw, Firefox ESR still supports 10.9, as does Zoom and Affinity. Those are "professional" apps, not hobbyist projects.

I expect the next four (or so) years of major macOS releases to support Intel processors. Apple is still making and selling brand new Intel Macs as of this writing, and as noted above, they have a larger customer base than they did last time.

The last Intel OS will get security updates for three years. After that, the largest app makers will likely continue supporting that OS for at least another three years, probably more.

 

[Amethyst1]

No idea what I might do when the trashcan MPs come into my price range

Skip it because it sucks. Just one CPU (so 12 cores max), old and unupgradeable GPUs, proprietary SSDs. A fully loaded 5,1 will give it a good spanking.

 

[Amethyst1]

Thinking about how fast the early iOS devices were left behind,

Never ever buy a first-generation product. Never. You'll get burned.

 

[Amethyst1]

How about your opinions ...?

I'll be pragmatic - I'll use Mavericks and Mojave for as long as possible and then switch to Linux. I don't [plan to] use any cloud services so have nothing to worry about on that front.

 

[eyoungren]

Skip it because it sucks. Just one CPU (so 12 cores max), old and unupgradeable GPUs, proprietary SSDs. A fully loaded 5,1 will give it a good spanking.

Yeah, but sooner or later the 5,1 isn't going to run the latest. After I posted that, it occurred to me that the Mac Mini would probably be a decent alternative. Of course, I wouldn't get the same number of displays but by that time there may be other methods or my preferences may have changed. For some strange reason I find the display count limitation with the Mini's to be more acceptable to me than with a laptop. Possibly that's due to the intent of the Mini as a less powerful (but still capable) desktop replacement. Whereas, I expect the pro versions of Apple's laptops to be able to dance to my tune.

But we aren't there yet.

 

[eyoungren]

I don't [plan to] use any cloud services so have nothing to worry about on that front.

Cloud services are irrelevant in my case as I do not use Apple's services, with the exception of iMessage. Even so, iMessage is not that important to me as I worked around it with an alternative solution for over a year when I was on Android. SMS is no big deal to me.

But in the case of everything else I already set up alternatives years ago and all that stuff is cross-platform.

 

[Amethyst1]

After I posted that, it occurred to me that the Mac Mini would probably be a decent alternative. Of course, I wouldn't get the same number of displays

Use an eGPU via Thunderbolt and boom, up to 4 (Nvidia) or 6 (AMD) additional displays.

 

[Amethyst1]

For some strange reason I find the display count limitation with the Mini's to be more acceptable to me than with a laptop.

Strange indeed BTW, the Mini will run three displays whereas the 16" MBP will run four (plus its own). So you're not getting six either way.

 

[eyoungren]

Strange indeed BTW, the Mini will run three displays whereas the 16" MBP will run four (plus its own). So you're not getting six either way.

I'd rather put a Mini to the task though, so there's that/

The 2015 work MBP I have can only drive two displays and one internal. It doesn't have the graphics card it needs internally to drive three externals and apparently Apple removed the OS ability to use external USB display adapters. I've been around with this for a bit now.

Unless you have some other work around I am unaware of.

 

[Amethyst1]

Unless you have some other work around I am unaware of.

Yep. An eGPU. It's not really a workaround though.

 

[edubfromktown]

I made the PPC transition to Intel with no grousing and will do the same from Intel to M1. Progress comes at a price and backward compatibility becomes arduous and futile.

Cisco Systems is a great example of supporting so much baggage from eons ago that it clobbered their ability to innovate and turned their products into garbage across multiple platforms: firewalls, routing, switching and VPN to name a few. There is far more marketshare at stake in the computer category and in order for Apple to stay ahead of the curve, there has to be some pain.

Just retiring two 2011 Mini's and my 2012 MBP 15". The runtime for those systems alone make the transition to M1 even less of an issue. I will continue using my 2020 10th gen 13" for at least 3 years I imagine (along with 16GB M1 mini).

 

[Imixmuan]

I made the PPC transition to Intel with no grousing and will do the same from Intel to M1. Progress comes at a price and backward compatibility becomes arduous and futile.

Cisco Systems is a great example of supporting so much baggage from eons ago that it clobbered their ability to innovate and turned their products into garbage across multiple platforms: firewalls, routing, switching and VPN to name a few. There is far more marketshare at stake in the computer category and in order for Apple to stay ahead of the curve, there has to be some pain.

Just retiring two 2011 Mini's and my 2012 MBP 15". The runtime for those systems alone make the transition to M1 even less of an issue. I will continue using my 2020 10th gen 13" for at least 3 years I imagine (along with 16GB M1 mini).

Wow, must be nice to be able to "retire" perfectly capable computers. I'll take 'em, but only if you are giving them away. I never ever buy computers, in 2021 that's like buying air, or paying for sex. People toss 100 percent capable machines all the time. That 2012 MBP will run macOS and 40 bajillion flavors of Linux like a champ. Those Mini's are also super capable machines. But....I am luddite currently typing on my daily driver, a 2008 T400 Thinkpad running MX Linux. I'm not poor, actually I'm a medical professional, can easily "afford" new hardware, I just hate hate hate how today's "blazing fast" machines are tomorrows e-waste, in no small part because corporations like Crapple and Microsoft really need you to keep buying their new hardware and their total crap software.

But ultimately you are right, progress is progress, and backward compatibility is a beeatch, as is learning a whole new OS. Plus, you might have a job that actually depends on recent hardware and software. My job invovles vaccinating and removing animal's reproductive organs against their will, so...no computer needed, other than the end of life Chromebooks we use to enter the medical records and drug logs on. Thanks to Debian, Ubuntu and GalliumOS they are still doing what they were built to do and not in the landfill, or wherever it is they would have ended up. They've "only" got 2 GB of RAM so...their days are numbered.

 

[bobesch]

I made the PPC transition to Intel with no grousing and will do the same from Intel to M1. Progress comes at a price and backward compatibility becomes arduous and futile.

Cisco Systems is a great example of supporting so much baggage from eons ago that it clobbered their ability to innovate and turned their products into garbage across multiple platforms: firewalls, routing, switching and VPN to name a few. There is far more marketshare at stake in the computer category and in order for Apple to stay ahead of the curve, there has to be some pain.

Just retiring two 2011 Mini's and my 2012 MBP 15". The runtime for those systems alone make the transition to M1 even less of an issue. I will continue using my 2020 10th gen 13" for at least 3 years I imagine (along with 16GB M1 mini).

"Progress comes at a price ..."
That price would be much higher, if the "retired" hardware wouldn't be sold at a good price to a vivid market of 2nd hand users, but would be given away, because it's so arduous and futile to deal with.

 

[B S Magnet]

Just retiring two 2011 Mini's and my 2012 MBP 15".

Send them on over to:

B S Magnet
1 My House
Canada H0H 0H0

 

[Crichton333]

With M2 coming Intel needs a massive comeback or this really will be goodbye forever

 

[TheShortTimer]

Never ever buy a first-generation product. Never. You'll get burned.

That's correct - you serve as an unpaid bug-tester, as I learned from reading a Terry Pratchett interview during the late 80s.

I just hate hate hate how today's "blazing fast" machines are tomorrows e-waste, in no small part because corporations like Crapple and Microsoft really need you to keep buying their new hardware and their total crap software.

A fortnight ago, I wrote an article about children in the Global South who eke out a subsistence by performing the highly dangerous task of recycling e-waste without even the most basic safety measures. People around me were alarmed when I reeled off the stats from my research regarding the amount of child labourers who every year, die as a result of this occupation or develop long-term, often irrevocable health conditions and cannot afford to obtain medical treatment. Progress comes at a price and I've seen who's truly paying that price and how. Proudly, I can state that the article was written on a 2011 laptop that I found in the spares/repairs section of eBay.

Thanks to Debian, Ubuntu and GalliumOS they are still doing what they were built to do and not in the landfill, or wherever it is they would have ended up. They've "only" got 2 GB of RAM so...their days are numbered.

Hopefully you'll rescue them when the time comes and ensure that they go to people who can make use of them?